ORH_wxman

Yes...I'll give it another 24 hours or so to see if those earlier trend manifest themselves more positively in the sensible wx department or if this is just going to be a case of another decent synoptic setup being ruined by some nuance in the flow.

Ukie is a whiff for most...well maybe some nuisance snows of 1-4 inches in southern areas of CT/RI and SE MA...blizzard for Jimmy though on the Cape....top of the ridge actually folds over the top in Ontario and sort of squishes this east at the last second. I was pretty sure it was going to be a huge hit at 102-108 hours...lol. That said, I was actually more encouraged with that run than the 00z.

Ukie is looking pretty good through 84...it has a deeper northern stream with more amped ridge and the southern stream is slower too compared to 00z.

Well it's not really a whiff for SE MA....probably several inches of snow.

Yeah I wasn't writing it off at this time lead...that's for the weenies in here to do....but I'd rather see that ridge not trend flatter. "Trend" might be the wrong word here since it had been actually trending more amped for several runs before regressing a bit for one run here....one run does not a trend make....but we sometimes use the word interchangeably for dprog/dt. Southern vort conserved better and was slower, which is a good thing. I agree with you that there is certainly room for this to end up as a very high impact event....it doesn;t have to miss east. We have some classic features such as a climatologically favored ridge placement and the northern vort trying to dive in and capture that southern entity...those are features that many higher end events had.

12z GFS is a bit less impressive with the northern stream....ridge is slightly flatter out west. Not what you want to see. The southern stream is stronger/slower, but it won't be enough to offset the former trend.

Agreed that a steeper angle of descent from the northern stream will definitely help with southern stream phasing. I don't care too much how it is achieved, whether it's that or the southern stream trending more robust and slowing down a bit....but we very likely need that phase to happen if we want something higher end.

I want to see a trend of more southern stream involvement at 12z...it doesn't have to be a monster hit verbatim, but would like to see that trend of reeling in the southern vort....the phase is how we get it done for something big, otherwise we're looking at nuisance snows most likely....maybe a moderate event if lucky.

Still getting used to seeing BOS colder than Cape Cod....what do you think Scooter? Give it another week or 10 days and see if it holds? It's starting to look like they definitely changed something though.

06z Euro looked better than 00z but only goes to 90h. Both northern and southern stream looked better.

Just misses phase in time but thats prob as close as we’ve seen on GFS.

Might phase this run. Or come really close.

Yeah I liked that stronger “north” look at 120 hours before it sort of hooked east. That’s usually a good sign. At any rate, this still has the crucial synoptic features we’re looking for in a higher end threat with the classic Rockies ridge, transient 50/50 low, and a southern stream ready to be caught by northern stream diving in. Really the only thing missing is an arctic antecedent airmass being fed from a classic Quebec high . But that FROPA on thursday should be enough. We just gotta hope those features don’t crap out on us between now and Friday.

Actually eps might be slightly east of 12z on the 132 map toggling it again but it was slightly better I thought on the 126 frame. Either way pretty close and at this lead time you want to see the general setup holding.

18z EPS pretty nice...looked better than 12z

Yeah I’d agree. It fits in a bit with my post above. We typically see them as transitional solutions on the way to a real storm or a whiff. Our inverted troughs that actually verify usually don’t show up until inside 3 days. Agreed.

Yeah you can kind of think of norluns and IVTs as “knife’s edge” solutions. You rarely actually land on a knife’s edge so that’s why they don’t verify that often but we frequently see them on guidance as a trend passes through the knife’s edge solution on the way to a real solution whether it’s a whiff or a hit.

GFS really trending this run. Regardless of verbatim outcome it’s good to see.

I noticed that today. I was surprised when I peeked earlier and they weren’t 7F warmer than ORH.

I would agree with you there.

EPS looks like it is still getting southern stream involved in quite a few members given the mean Anyways, don’t get too invested yet. This is still 132-150 hours out.

This is why we want southern stream involved IMHO...too much chance this trends flatter and faster in northern stream if we are solely relying on it. But in the case where the northern stream catches up with a potent southern stream, we probably don’t need it to be perfect to produce.

The way that closes off almost reminds me of 2/15/15.

It’ll take some time to figure out the S stream. Those cutoffs in Mexico are often a disaster on model guidance. GGEM is an example of the southern stream being captured. That’s ideally what we want. Don’t want to rely on solely northern stream imho given the progressive pattern. I feel like it could trend flatter/faster with time.

The 00z actually was all northern stream. Southern stream escaped on the 00z run but northern stream dug so much it spawned its own storm.