ORH_wxman

Still getting used to seeing BOS colder than Cape Cod....what do you think Scooter? Give it another week or 10 days and see if it holds? It's starting to look like they definitely changed something though.

06z Euro looked better than 00z but only goes to 90h. Both northern and southern stream looked better.

Just misses phase in time but thats prob as close as we’ve seen on GFS.

Might phase this run. Or come really close.

Yeah I liked that stronger “north” look at 120 hours before it sort of hooked east. That’s usually a good sign. At any rate, this still has the crucial synoptic features we’re looking for in a higher end threat with the classic Rockies ridge, transient 50/50 low, and a southern stream ready to be caught by northern stream diving in. Really the only thing missing is an arctic antecedent airmass being fed from a classic Quebec high . But that FROPA on thursday should be enough. We just gotta hope those features don’t crap out on us between now and Friday.

Actually eps might be slightly east of 12z on the 132 map toggling it again but it was slightly better I thought on the 126 frame. Either way pretty close and at this lead time you want to see the general setup holding.

18z EPS pretty nice...looked better than 12z

Yeah I’d agree. It fits in a bit with my post above. We typically see them as transitional solutions on the way to a real storm or a whiff. Our inverted troughs that actually verify usually don’t show up until inside 3 days. Agreed.

Yeah you can kind of think of norluns and IVTs as “knife’s edge” solutions. You rarely actually land on a knife’s edge so that’s why they don’t verify that often but we frequently see them on guidance as a trend passes through the knife’s edge solution on the way to a real solution whether it’s a whiff or a hit.

GFS really trending this run. Regardless of verbatim outcome it’s good to see.

I noticed that today. I was surprised when I peeked earlier and they weren’t 7F warmer than ORH.

I would agree with you there.

EPS looks like it is still getting southern stream involved in quite a few members given the mean Anyways, don’t get too invested yet. This is still 132-150 hours out.

This is why we want southern stream involved IMHO...too much chance this trends flatter and faster in northern stream if we are solely relying on it. But in the case where the northern stream catches up with a potent southern stream, we probably don’t need it to be perfect to produce.

The way that closes off almost reminds me of 2/15/15.

It’ll take some time to figure out the S stream. Those cutoffs in Mexico are often a disaster on model guidance. GGEM is an example of the southern stream being captured. That’s ideally what we want. Don’t want to rely on solely northern stream imho given the progressive pattern. I feel like it could trend flatter/faster with time.

The 00z actually was all northern stream. Southern stream escaped on the 00z run but northern stream dug so much it spawned its own storm.

Northern stream not diving in as much on the 12z euro. So this won’t produce like 00z did.

It could be a light to moderate precip that is rain for coast. Though i think anything close enough that would put down big qpf is going to have a hard time being rain.

OTS is a much bigger threat than a stemwinder going up through SNE. This pattern is progressive...the key is we could get a temporary stall or slowdown of the system if the southern stream is captured by closing off northern stream H5 south of LI.

There’s actually some similarities with Feb 2013 where the northern stream insert is trying to catch that southern wave lingering in the SE US. The problem right now for further west areas is it’s not capturing it quite as soon as Feb ‘13.

GGEM is gonna go big again.

Can’t believe we don’t have a slam dunk blizzard at day 6.

Yeah...I just posted above before I saw this. Agreed.

Yeah that is he Eurowx map (now called F5?) It’s another 3rd party vendor and they are usually pretty conservative and often correct...esp with sleet potential. But the marginal sfc here in this instance may hurt the accuracy because heavy snow at 33 is accumulating rapidly. Light to moderate snow may not. At any rate. This is all probably moot since we’re discussing a 6+ day solution. Lol. But it’s a good example of hashing out different clown maps and their limitations.