ORH_wxman

Almost was just a FROPA....not even a mild cutter. Kind of weird....but it all starts with the timing of the northern and southern stream shortwaves....they kind of were in phase with eachother so that's why we didn't see a nice event....we want the northern stream to outrun the southern and we'd get a really nice setup. Still a pretty favorable look though overall...I think we'd have more than one shot. Maybe 12/19ish too.

Euro is gonna go cutter for 12/16-17....not that it matters this far out....but no eye candy this run.

Still need to keep half an eye on it...if this whole thing presses more on Saturday leading into it, then there could be some legit icing concerns. I'm leaning against it for now, but we've seen it happen before. Esp for further inland, like ORH county into S NH.

Nice mesolow showing up this weekend....if we had cold air at the sfc more established beforehand, that would be a very bullish icing signal even into BOS for a time.

Yep, there's a lot of events that are not coastals that will hit our area and maybe not V NT or NH/ ME....things like clippers that track S of LI or even overrunning events that struggle to get warning snows north of central VT/NH. Also the occasional IVT that dumps a few inches. The Killington number definitely looks inflated unless maybe they were measuring near the 4k summit and perhaps it's only mildly inflated. But then it wouldn't be apples to apples comparison to other ski resorts since you shouldn't measure at the summit.

I like the 12/17 look the most (I've actually liked this period for days now...I think I was posting about 12/16-12/19 a few times)....EPS were pretty bullish on that one last night. But yeah, can't rule out the follow up wave on 12/15 yet.

Yes, last night it backed off some which was kind of surprising honestly....though 06z euro trended a little flatter again. We'll see if we can get one more push today otherwise I think it's like a 36-42F rain down here. Maybe 33F in the N ORH hills.

Yeah, the only complication is advecting in the colder air first before the storm starts....we're actually pretty mild on Friday before the storm. It could almost be the type of system where it gets colder as the event unfolds and the CAD is actively pressing southwest. My hope is that we see the arctic high press further on future runs, so that we're already in the cold airmass before the storm even arrives.

1040 arctic high is no joke either....at least it's better than tracking a straight cutter.

EPS came in flatter than previous runs....we'll see if we can push that arctic high south even more in the next couple days.

You might get decent snow this weekend too. One thing that will tak a while getting used to is not to fear modeled cutters as much....they often turn into what we're seeing on the Euro. It doesn't make a difference for MD, but in NE (esp NNE) it can go from 50F rainer to snowstorm in a couple cycles.

OR an obscene slug of 3" of qpf like Dec '08.

Nov 1921 repeat next Tuesday?

Euro is coming in pretty flat so far

I hope....lol....I still think we're prob screwed down here for this weekend, but NNE may end up pretty wintry on this one. But we may have a couple legit threats behind this one. That blocking lingers up in the arctic, so I won't be surprised to see a general trend more favorable during that period.

We'll see what the Euro does at 12z....but I'm somewhat on the more suppressed train at the moment where the sfc high builds down. I'd expect the GFS to be the last model to see it. 12z Ukie is building the high in out ahead of the system

I fully expect NNE to be locked into the cold at the surface in this one now....the only question iswhether the cold is deep enough so that it is more snow versus more sleet/ZR. Maybe the trend will reverse, but we've seen this movie many times. It will keep trending colder before it does the classic SWFE bump back north inside of 48 or 60 hours.

That weekend deal is coming in flatter and flatter each run....the arctic does kind of support stuff trending colder with that...lot of blocking up there right now, so wouldn't be surprised to see further PV lobe pushes south. Below is the 06z EPS at 96 hours. I marked the ridges/blocks in the arctic/subarctic regions that will be important and then the PV lobe that may impact any potential for colder solutions.....we want to force that a bit further south. It has trended steadily south in the past 4 or 5 runs.

Megan and I stayed at the evergreen inn a couple times before we had kids when we were doing “budget” Sunday River trips. That place is hilarious. They haven’t changed anything inside since they built the place around 1970. The decor is straight out of that era. Also, when we pulled up, there was always like milk and beer in the snow outside staying cold, lol. Always tons of snow mobiles chained up to the trees out back since the trails have access right to the inn. When I chatted with the owner, he told me how it’s mostly snow mobilers but that they do get some skiers like us too that make the 25-30 min trip to SR or Mt Abram.

Meh. I want to also, but it’s a heavy lift to keep us cold enough this weekend. We’ll have more chances behind it.

Yes it’s possible. But gonna need to see some trends tonight and tomorrow. We’ve seen the trend of the angle of approach come in flatter over the past 24-36h but it’s still not enough. Need a bigger jump.

For a MA hill east of the Berkshires, it has some good vertical. Like almost 600 feet? Its kind of surprising that it couldn’t stay open given the lack of areas within an hour of Boston. I wonder how it would do if it reopened today with some decent infrastructure. I’m guessing it would be viable. We wont find out though. I think it’s like designated wilderness land or something now which would probably make it really hard to reopen a ski area.

Can’t really tell this far out. It’s a general N/S gradient. I think it had the dividing line between normal and above normal temps really close to your area for a couple weeks. That should mean chances there anyway if it panned out like that.

Weeklies have a decent gradient pattern for late December and first half of January. Low heights in NW Canada into AK but the core of them stay east of the Death Star region so Canada is pretty cold and it oozes into the northern tier.