ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Euro is too skimpy on qpf with that look...take ‘em up if that verifies. With heavier precip, the BL starts to look better too.
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Euro is really nice looking for Wednesday afternoon/night for a large chunk of SNE and southern CNE. That’s some midlevel magic there.
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Euro actually cooled a decent amount. Starting to get more narrow goalposts. It had been one of the warmest models. This run prob keeps like N ORH county over to near ASH all snow.
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Yes. You want that southern s/w to basically plow eastward under us with minimal interaction up north. But we are getting very close in now. I expect the euro solution to more or less verify. Toss the NAM type solutions.
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Huh? GFS has been wayyy south. Doesn’t even give CNE much precip...at least until 12z today when it was starting to give advisory amounts. I’d say the GFS is catching up to the foreign globals. Not the other way around.
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1996-1997 basically fits that tenor for ORH. We had almost 30” in December (almost all from the early month system) and then got largely nothing until March/April...capped off of course by the big 3/31-4/1 blizzard.
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Maybe near BDL. Interior MA is too far gone to finish near normal. Lol. It can be less pathetic though. Although maybe N ORH county could get kind of close to normal if they got double digits in the next 3 days now that I think about it. That small area has been a little better. I think hubbdave has like mid to high 50s for snow total this season? He averages near 75. ORH needs like 30-35” more to get near normal.
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Even though this is just the 3/24 thread, NAM croaks many in round two as well. Its like this was run out of my basement. Too bad it’s the NAM
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ORH obliterator on the NAM. Not buying those double digit totals over interior MA yet until euro cools it off a bit.
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There’s a bent back WF in midlevels. That’s usually a good sign for a big thumping just north of it. So definitely interior elevated areas N of pike could see several hours of moderate to heavy snow...even if it does eventually flip to rain. Euro has been the warmest...we’ll see if it cools just a bit to prolong the snows further south. But even the euro would support a few hours of good snows in SNE.
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Rgem gone wild
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Still favors interior but at least the high is a bit better. So even though the flow comes out of the east, it’s a really dry arctic dewpoint source so the coast could probably sustain snow...at least for a while. Still a lot of time to work out details.
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I’m morbidly curious to see what Kevin’s reaction would be if that map verified. Nevermind ORH quintupling his total but Fairfield county and Tauntonblizz doubling his totals. Could we surpass the epic 2010 MLK meltdown?
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SNE got NAM’d...absolutely nukes out the midlevels (I’m selling this btw....but still funny to see it)
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18z Euro is starting to look pretty impressive for Wednesday night. Only goes out to 90 but another frame or two it was ready to blow up. This one might sneak up in folks being distracted both by the Monday system and all the coronavirus crap.
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If something like the 12km NAM happened, we prob have to watch that even a bit further south because that ML center goes nuts we’ll southeast. That’s a classic spot for busting too warm on guidance. But you obviously need that ML nuking out to make it happen.
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You might need to up amounts near YBY. Your area over to S NH is in a decent spot. There will be a tight cutoff to your east with onshore flow but you might be far enough west.
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Prob good to keep expectations low for this one. There’s some potential but there’s enough warts on it to not get too excited. The Wednesday night system looks more promising actually but it’s obviously further out so need to see it get closer. If we can tighten up the circulation a bit on the Monday system ala NAM, then there could be some surprises.
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You prob get 2 or 3 inches of paste on the front end. But it warms quickly. If we can hold that off with more easterly flow vs SE then it could make a big difference over interior.
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High is in a much better spot for second storm. That one could get interesting. First storm has a better antecedent airmass but nothing to really stop the WAA. Does have a good bent back WF though so we could get a pretty good thump for a few hours inland.
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Still a little warm for SNE aloft after 00z but that is close to being an isothermal nuke for pike region. Much of SNE away from the coast still sees advisory snows though before the flip.
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Ukie looks like a big hit for MA 495 belt and westward. Maybe far N CT and then S NH and S VT. Does it again 36 hours later in almost the exact same spots.
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It’s weak sauce and mostly south with the dynamics.
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Ray got NAM’d
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Congrats. Take lots of pics and have a snowball fight with the chickens.
