ORH_wxman

My wife belongs to most of the community groups around here...and they seem mostly fine and I can get why you'd want to use them for community info. But there have been some occasional vile fights on there. The one skivt2 is part of at Killington seems especially toxic though...there's gotta be another source of community info around there so you don't have to be subjected to those morons.

Skivt2 just threw her computer out the window.

Commercial real estate is a blood bath right now...I would bet dollars to donuts that's where a ton of the construction job losses are at.

Employment rate of younger adults/teens has steadily declined since peaking in the 1980s. Back then, ages 16-24 employment rate was 60%...it hovered around 58% in the 1990s and in the 2010s it's been consistently below 50% until 2017 when it finally made it back over 50% until the pandemic put a screeching halt to that trend.

Yeah the full fallout hasn't happened yet. That probably won't be felt completely until sometime next year. My guess is Q1/Q2 2021.

Probably a good move re: NH plates. I definitely expect some states to freak out again this fall when cases jump back up (and they will), and that could affect access to ski resorts.

I’ve always thought there was pretty compelling evidence that the 134F wasn’t real. Its a much tougher case to say for sure it was under 130F, but I don’t think questioning the 134F is that nefarious.

I’d take the over at this point on 2035. We’ve basically had no trend in volume loss going back to 2010. You’d like to see something more discernible. Maybe there is another notable step-down currently in the works that will soon change the odds.

There's a lot of weak ice in the Beaufort/Chukchi region so I'd expect extent losses to accelerate again soon as a lot of that melts out and/or compacts, but we've lost any chance at a new record. I'm still expecting a top 3 lowest extent and area finish.

We’ve now fallen behind 2012 on both area and extent for losses. It didn’t take long to close the 800k extent gap. There is a good amount of weakened ice in the Beaufort/Chukchi sector, but I don’t see us finishing below 2012 on either metric.

You weren’t supposed to tell them about our anti-VT group PM.

A lot of member social media groups are filled with chickenshits who either: 1. Want to stir up trouble for fun 2. Actually believe the crap they are typing but are too scared to say it without the “safety” of groupthink 3. Think their opinion is way more important than it actually is 4. Or all of the above. Agreed on the toxicity. No use wasting time in an environment like that.

If a local VTer told me to go home if I had a place there, I’d tell them to go f*** themselves and not think twice about it. Lol.

The reduction in extent losses was inevitable with how compact the ice had become (I made a post 5 days ago on this). However, we have had some good area losses recently, so there will be room for extent losses to pick back up if we can get another favorable pattern....for now, the reverse dipole looks to intensify over the next week, and then we'll see what happens after that.

Yeah if your irons are pretty shoddy off the tee then it definitely makes sense to go with woods and just get more distance. A lot of amateurs don’t hit long irons well to begin with...so there is little point in using them at all and just stick with hybrids. My long irons are personally much straighter off the tee than woods so I’ll use them 3 or 4 times a round on a par 4. Most other holes I use a driver because my 3 wood isn’t any more accurate...maybe just marginally so. Only time I might use a 3 wood off the tee is on the occasional hole where it’s a sharp dog leg at about 240-260ish....so I still want a bit more distance than a 3 iron but I’m worried I may drive it through the fairway with my driver.

Yeah I mean there’s probably 4 or 5 holes anyway that would be in the 350-380 range (unless you are playing a really challenging course) and you can do just fine with low 200s off the tee but keep it straight. Then usually on most courses there’s 2-3 holes where you have a massive fairway with ample rough on each side that you can risk taking out the less accurate clubs. That maybe leaves you with 7-8 holes where you have to make a real decision on whether to trade accuracy for distance that might be very helpful if you can keep it in play.

How are you with a 3 iron off the tee?

The ice is the most compact going back to 2007 for this date...just ahead of 2013. We're narrowly ahead of 2012 for least area on record on this date, but 2020 currently has over 800,000 sq km less ice extent than 2012. In comparison, 2012 and 2007 were the least compact at this point though both would become very compact later in the season near the minimum. This tells me that we're likely going to see a huge slowdown in extent loss coming up pretty soon. 2012 has a huge area loss event coming up in the first 10 days of August, so I think 2020 is going to have to build a bigger lead on 2012 over the next week to have a good chance to finish below 2012 in area. Extent is a different story, that may be easier to achieve, though still not easy IMHO despite the current 800k lead. 2012's extent loss in August is unmatched in the record....so it's going to be all about "holding on" to a lead in 2012 as it will begin making up ground very quickly...and as mentioned above, the compactness of 2020 right now is going to make it harder to sustain big extent losses going forward unless we see a big area loss event.

Time to keep the big dog in the bag

Just got back from Juniper Hills. Played the Riverside course and shot 39-45 for an 84. First round since 7/22 last year. So almost exactly a year to the day. Can’t complain. Played surprisingly well except one terrible stretch on 10-11-12 where I went double-bogey-double. That pretty much sunk me on the back but I finished par-par at least including sticking a 5 iron to 10 feet on 17 (long par 3)...missed the damn putt though by burning the edge. Thought I had it. Anyways, it was great just to be out again.

I want it a touch warmer. Around 70 and overcast is my favorite. Makes tracking the ball very easy and sometimes the overcast scares the crowds off (like your misty weather) Don’t want it wet to screw up my grip or have the water hydroplaning the ball across the club face.

Yeah GIR is tough to achieve on a very consistent basis. Even in my really good rounds, I’d prob get like 11 or 12 out of 18...unless I was playing a cow pasture with a 68 rating. The pitching game and scrambling was the easiest way to take several strokes off my game and then on those days where I was feeling it with my driver/irons, I could score really low. If you can get some consistent coaching/lessons, then you can probably get the iron game to a very high/consistent level where your “floor” is like 80-82...but most people don’t have that kind of financial/time commitment combo available to them. Golf is a tough game, lol.

Yeah that course had like a 73.5 rating or something back then. It was frickin’ hard. I assume it’s still similar as it would be foolish to alter a RTJ course very much. Those rounds I had there were just a combo of playing almost every day and running into some flukes as well. I remember on one of the 76 rounds I holed out a bunker shot that was easily going to roll off the the green to the other bunker but it hit the pin and went in. That kind of stuff happens when you are going good. And RE: your game....sounds like you were pretty close to getting into that 6-7 handicap zone where I peaked back in by age 18-20 years. Almost all the difference is the play inside of 100 yards at that point. The pitching game and scrambling around the green is probably where almost all my improvement came from going from scores in the 82-85 range down to 76-80 range. Theres some smaller improvement in the irons and such, but so much of the scoring came from consistently getting up and down around the greens and giving yourself legit makable putts from 50-100 yards out....frequently your birdies on short par 4s and par 5s.

Chris, my official peak I think was junior year. August/September 2001. Jeff Smith and I played like 3-4 times per week at Robert Trent Jones golf course...started before classes began in August and then we played into September before the weather turned uglier. For some reason, it just all came together in a 4-5 round period (that can happen when you’re playing so much). Smith was like, “dude you need to go out for the Cornell team again...”. You know that course isn’t easy...esp from the blues which we played all the time. I did this in a 4 round stretch....79-76-77-76. And I think each round adjacent to those 4 was like an 80 or 81. I couldn’t miss. The first 76 happened kind of by accident...I had played fairly well on the front but nothing crazy...shot 41. Then on the back like 5-6 holes in, he goes “dude you’re 1 under on the back”. Ended up parring in from that point for a 41-35. I’ll prob never reach that peak again. All downhill after age 20.

Yeah I’ve played about 2 times per year since I had my first kid. Second one was born last year and only got 1 round in. To be fair, I wasn’t playing much even before that from my peak days 15-20 years ago. I was maybe getting out 3-5 times per year...except 2014 and 2015 I managed to get out a little more and my game was coming back at that point. Had several rounds in the 80-82 range. Then the first one was born in 2016.... Suffice to say, my days of a 6 handicap aren’t coming back any time soon.