ORH_wxman

Longshot...it's possible, but for anything meaningful, it needs to throw the CCB back better...really curl those midlevels up. Right now they stay kind of elongated.

Yeah I'd prob just take the Euro and slightly bump it north...maybe 10-20 miles. We'll see though...it could be right. Ukie was pretty far south too like Euro and it just bumped north a bit.

I'd prob take the Euro and nudge it slightly north....I've seen it a bit too far south a several times this winter and it's the furthest south right now. The old 70/30 compromise.

925 cools pretty quick in ORH county over to Middlesex county N of pike to close to -2C...so I could see some ratios there being not too far under 10 to 1...esp if they are getting moderate to heavy snow for a time. For places a little further south where 925 is barely below 0C, then it's going to be isothermal paste. So much is rate-dependent. When you're pounding 1/4 mile snow at 32F with -2 to -3C in the column between 900-925 and excellent lift in the DGZ above that, I've seen 15 to 1 easily during that time despite the near-freezing sfc temps. Obviously on the shoulders of each side of that period, you get lighter snows with lower ratios.

Yeah even ORH at 1000 feet has only two events on record over 6" after 4/15. Ironically, both were blockbusters (12.7 in May '77 and 17.0 in Apr '87) This one def has warning potential at ORH...but it could also end up as a sloppy 3-4" if rates aren't great. But the guidance seems to be coming in more impressive the last 18-24 hours, so we'll see.

Yeah, NAM is still pretty torchy for CT/RI/SE MA....it is the northern outlier, but it has been fairly stubborn...it's not quite as far north as yesterday, but it is a little warmer than the 06z run, so no continued south trend. We'll see what the RGEM says in a bit. That's an impressive look though...really good fronto for the pike region and even up toward the NH border.

Could be a weenie band at the end that is underforecasted. That is a pretty sweet look in the midlevels. Only limiting factor might be that the tail end is during the daylight hours so it will be fighting the April 18th sun angle.

Hard to say as I didn't have any good data from NE CT when I made the May '77 map. I only had the Storrs coop which is lower elevation. I even checked old newspapers back then when I made the map. My guess is Tolland probably at least got warning snowfall....but hard to say whether it was 6" or 10". Most of CT south of about HFD didn't report measurable, so there was definitely less cooling as you headed south.

Yeah, here;s the April 28-29, 1987 map

It still looks like you might get some. Might happen a little later in the event there. Initially it’s a bit warm in the boundary layer down there.

Overnight runs didn’t change much. Pretty solid look for a good slice of SNE. The accumulation aspect will definitely be influenced by rates...especially in the lower elevations.

Only brought it up because N CT had snow on that date. Not sure it was measurable though. We had about an inch in ORH.

What about 5/18/02?

Yes it does.

That’s as good a zone as any right now. Maybe sneaking up to NH/VT southern borders.

18z euro holding steady. Still thinking there could be a narrow stripe of plows or snowfall on that look.

Not really like this one. That one was a pseudo redeveloper on a sharply diving in shortwave from the lakes. Produced huge qpf though. Almost had an IVT type feature that enhanced it. The craziest part of the ‘87 storm was that most of the snow accumulated during peak insolation....like between noon and 6pm.

4/28-29/87 had warning criteria in far NE CT. 17.0” fell at ORH but towns like Union down to Tolland had 8-10”.

Here is 925mb...starts a little warm down south, but cools quickly...

Started a thread about Friday night/Sat morning

Decided to start a new thread for this one since we're now inside of 3 days and it's looking pretty decent for a burst of moderate to heavy snow over a chunk of SNE and perhaps CNE. There's actually a pretty vigorous shortwave with this, although positive tilted which will prevent it from wrapping up too much. But there should be a nice ribbon of ML fronto associated with it and perhaps an attempt to prolong the precip with a developing CCB late in the game. Here's the 12z Euro below. The diurnal timing is pretty good for accumulations as this is mostly a nighttime event, though it will linger into morning/midday in eastern areas.

If lift is good, it'll be 33F down to valleys too...and prob like 31-32F at elevation. It's pretty classic for this time of the year...the models will overestimate the sfc temp in heavier snow and underestimate it when its really light. Folks can think about it like this: 1. If it's "worth" tracking....i.e. a heavier event, then it's probably going to snow and accumulate down to the lower elevations 2. If it stays weak and light, it's probably white rain for most with light accumulations at elevation

I don't see 28F unless it cools more. You typically want at least like -3C or -4C or so at 925mb this time of the year. If it wrapped up into a more of a CCB, then it's possible it could transition to that in the 2nd half of the event, but I'm doubtful. I'd expect paste....assuming this happens. It could still crap out on us.

Yeah it’s the classic “precip hanging back longer than models show” type look. It’s trying to focus the heaviest stuff on the WAA fronto, but there’s pretty solid dynamic support behind that with the vigorous vortmax. It has the look of some narrow stripe getting hit pretty good that gets both the WAA fronto and then the attempted CCB hanging back....time of the year will be a limiting factor of course. But a warning stripe wouldn’t surprise me.

06z Euro has a pretty nice look as well...that's a little critter at H5. Could be a nice stripe of moderate to heavy snow to the north of that vort.