ORH_wxman

We used to have a poster "ack waves" from Nantucket, but I haven't seen him post in a long while.

EPS is all about the PNA ridging now....flipped a couple runs ago and has only gotten stronger on the idea.

He did one of the biggest 180s I've seen....he was absolutely trashing this threat at 96 hours when we can see 100-200 mile moves pretty easily....and once we got inside 48 hours, he was all about the model movements.

On the plus side, EPS continues to look excellent in the 11-15...and it's moving forward too. Not getting stuck at like 312-336 hours.

Let's be honest...you're getting wedged....your area does at the least excuse imaginable. The meat of this is still 108-120 hours out. The trend today has been a bit more amped, but we've seen so many of these go flatter from D4-5 inward. Plenty of time to turn this into an ice storm there....or at the very least, a 35F rain.

Stowe this weekend?

We knew today would be a really good system for hallucinations...I mean, can you think this would miss if you had no model information?

Monday night/Tuesday morning.....but yeah, snuck up and really clocked SE MA/RI when all the guidance earlier that day was showing dogshit.

Yeah and the EPS have recently had quite a shift in the Pacific...it's not nearly as negative with the PNA....it's opposing the GEFS suite, so the change may not show up on the ESRL teleconnector site yet (assuming the EPS has the right idea and the GEFS will trend toward it....hardly a lock). But if we get that combo of -EPO/+PNA (or at least neutral PNA), that would certainly be quite a flip in the CONUS pattern and likely sensible wx when it comes to storm system.

Yeah there's no HRRR posts or RAP posts yet because they all look like ka-ka. Same with RPM.

You must've done ok...I had like 4" here. BOS had like 3" maybe?

I remember we had that weenie band out ahead and NW of the man precip shield late that night....it went from you to me...we were the only ones snowing for several hours on the forum....this little narrow band. Everyone else was virga or nothing. I had about 2" of fluff from that band....I think the stuff early the next morning I got another couple to 3 inches. SE MA got like 8".

Interesting that it looks a hair worse at 24h for Maine...but it was def a little better further south down near S coast of CT and LI.

GFS looks very slightly more NW...we're talking very slim changes. But that's better than worse....keeps SE folks in the game.

EPS actually dumps the RNA signal around D11-12....we'll see. RNA with a -NAO would have been a sweet pattern for here, but the ATL has gone to utter trash now from the favorable December setup.

It really does...if all the other guidance looked like that, you'd prob have to forecast advisory snows for BOS back to like E half of CT. But it's a red flag to me that none of the weenie short term models that always show weenie solutions aren't biting. It's possible they are struggling with the complex interaction between the offshore redevelopment/convection and the main shortwave a bit west of that....but you'd think at least one of them would go wild if we were going to be getting advisory snows over a decent area.

Things are definitely looking more favorable after about 1/15...and especially the final 10 days of the month. But even as early as 1/14-15 or so, we get some intense press of cold into central canada and that could leak out way....so we can't rule out an overrunning event just after mid-month. Could obviously be a cutter too...that's how these things go....we start to actually build a western ridge a little bit after that though which will tend to reduce the cutter risk some. Cutters will always be on the table considering how awful the ATL is....the ATL was favorable in the first half of December which really helped us.

Dude that was like 1% of his outlook...the whole thing is about 900 pages.

It looks like there could be a little weenie band NW of the main CCB....say, like BOS to PVD if the main CCB is kissing the Cape....if it's a little SE, then it would be more like GHG-UUU...but this band could give a little mini-surprise to someone. IF this trends a little NW throughout the day today, then it could get into metrowest down to E CT.

A rapidly deepening storm near the benchmark and we're having trouble getting advisory snow to GHG-TAN.

Man, the short term guidance really gets that initial forcing really far west. Like E/C PA to BGM but then t just dries up and the newer forcing takes over south of the islands and LI. Nice gap in the middle where most of us are screwed. Theres gonna be a ton of radar hallucinations today as it will look like a big hit for all of SNE for a time before that initial forcing gets handed off to the offshore stuff. Hopefully with each passing run we see a delay in the offshore stuff becoming dominant.

Yeah I'm bracing for the messenger shuffle today unless we see a quick change in that short term guidance. They are prob telling us something.

Really? I thought 6z euro def looked better. Doesn't help most of us but that was probably pretty decent for S RI and SE MA

Not a big fan of seeing short term guidance like hrrr and rap so paltry. Usually one of those would be going to town if we're gonna see a NW surprise. Throw the rpm in there too.

Yes it does. Can't afford any ticks back SE though....except maybe the NAM. You could still get advisory snows on the NAM of it slightly ticked SE considering it almost brought warning snows to you. Hopefully everything ticks NW again but I'm bracing for the messenger shuffle today.