ORH_wxman

Lol nice. That storm looks amazing on satellite.

1913 weenies jumping off their horse and buggys

Brian's response was more thorough that mine...I only mentioned the moosefart shortwave but like he said, we can get this to amplify other ways too such as a much stronger main shortwave and allowing the extra Canadian energy to come down and deepen it further. More amplified ridge out west would help because a more amped ridge would slow the flow down...but we come to the chicken/egg with that...does the fast flow prevent those scenarios from happening? The northern front runner wave lifting out quicker seemed a little easier to attain given the pattern but it also goes against today's trends.

See if that shortwave tomorrow/tomorrow night that gives the snow showers (esp to moutnains) lifts out quicker than model guidance is showing. It trended slower today which is all that was needed to shoot the storm east because it didn't give our main shortwave enough room to amplify.

Sounds about right. It was def inside of 48. We started seeing a move maybe 36-42h from the main guidance? RPM showed it a bit outside of 48 and then never let it go...I just remember it had like 6 runs solo as a big hit until the first "real" model showed a hit. (Keeping in mind the rpm runs every 3 hours)

Jan 2015 was def a late move...though I didn't include that one in my examples because it was due to complex phasing and not a simple move NW based on W ATL ridging or maybe a confluence zone moving north. Something like that which this current threat is more analogous to.

I agree with Bob this is not the thread for this talk. This is supposed to be a storm threat thread...but to quickly answer your question before I move this response to banter....my beef with the posts was the psycho-analysis that implied that somehow anyone who says it hasn't adversely affected SNE snowfall is in some sort of defensive denial. It's really weird considering that statement isn't a denial but rather based on empirical evidence as Nick implied. If anything, maybe CC has actually helped SNE. We don't know for sure.

We probably want to see a bump NW on the 00z suite to keep this one alive...or at the very minimum hold serve and then a bump NW at 06z or 12z. On our threats that came back within 60 hours, usually we started seeing a move by 48...I'm thinking of systems like 2/5/16 or even 12/29/12 (aka "the rpm storm")...we started seeing a creep back NW around 48h out even if it wasn't a hit yet.

According to BOX climate page BOS 39.3 (1913) ORH 34.6 (1913) PVD 38.6 (1932) BDL 37.7 (1932) If we're converting those into departures for 1981-2010, we'd need something like a +10 to +11 for the month.

Yeah I don't get this idea that winters are struggling or going to struggle to produce large snowstorms or prolific snow events....the empirical evidence supports the opposite frankly. Maybe someday it will be true way out into the future. This is despite also there being empirical evidence that the Hadley cell has expanded...it hasn't stopped huge events of all kinds in clocking us...even this year, we got a meandering slow massive cutoff low that assaulted us for 3 days in early December with two distinct pulses.

The irony is that the trend we're seeing is a slower northern stream lead shortwave that is hurting this threat. It is moving slower out of our region despite the fast flow pattern overall...so the particular detail that has changed on this threat versus the 00z runs is something that is working as an opposing force to the fast flow.

Not sure those qualify as CNE/SNE which is what hippy was talking about.

Yeah it's hilarious. We say wait at 96 hours out and then we get a bunch of snarky shit for it. You'd think some people would learn not to lock in solutions at that timeframe after being on here for a while.

Not even enough for Jimmy this run with that streak....gotta have that come in weaker on subsequent runs.

It would need to be way better than it is....that lead shortwave is a huge problem when it is hanging back like it is on this run.

The moosefart shortwave is going to get us on the 12z euro....the main shortwave for the storm is actually deeper this run and digging better, but that streak up in VT and S Quebec is worse

Haven't looked closely...what are you expecting? Has it started there yet? Looks close based on that satellite image. Pretty sweet storm.

Could easily trend weaker too. They have all done that going back to Xmas.

You'd prob get crushed on that look for a time. Hopefully we can trend the whole thing a little more tucked in.

That's a pretty nice h5 on the GGEM. Qpf slams the cape and far SE MA but that would prob be better further west too

Some threats deserve threads at d4. Depends on the setup. SE MA has legit shot in this one so I'm okay with a thread. When this was being discussed in the pattern thread it was incessant whining. At least if people aren't interested in this threat they can choose to stay out of the thread.

That lead shortwave is pretty key. You can tell pretty early on on these runs whether it's going to be better or worse.

Rgem had a pretty nice ML sig for SE areas

The main shortwave is pretty impressive this run. Quite close with the 06z run...biggest difference is the shortwave that causes the snow showers tomorrow morning hangs back longer and limits downstream ridging prior to the Tuesday night shortwave. That has been a feature that is shifting with almost every single run. Probably why we're seeing so much flip flopping.

I mean, it was so zonked at 06z it wasn't holding serve nevermind go NW. This is def a bigger threat for SE areas than western areas. Thats a really good look for SE MA though with the 700 low closing off over ACK