ORH_wxman

If the 06z NAM verified then this would be a pretty potent event down in SE MA/RI. But it's kind of on its own right now. Ryan called it on the rpm....went from NW outlier to a total whiff in like 2 runs, LOL. 06z Euro was actually pretty good like scooter said. That would prob be advisory snows for SE MA and RI and maybe back to like ginxy and SE CT.

Ended up with a very marginal improvement in the end....pretty sick CCB just offshore. That needs like 30-40 miles to get the SE peeps.

Trying to make a comeback at 24...made up some ground....streak is moving out a little quicker now.

Shitstreak looks worse on the GFS through 12....don't think this run is gonna help.

A couple hours would probably make a pretty big difference...so it's why we sit and torture ourselves watching this.

Reggie didn't help us at 00z...it looked a bit better early on but then just got kicked east as it approached our latitude and ended up about the same as 18z.

It could definitely keep coming NW bit by bit...but we're running out of time for a large change. We've seen it before, but it's rare. That shitstreak is the reason we're not seeing this be a quick hitting 0.75-1" of qpf over most of SNE. It's possible we end up with something like the RPM where it's 2-4" over a good area with a little zone of higher and maybe far SE MA gets into the real CCB. But it's not like that streak is just going to exert no influence by the time we get to go time. Guidance could be overplaying it by a little bit though which is why we could still see 2-4" as far west as W CT and C/W MA if things go right.

The midlevel goodies are starting to scrape the south coast of RI/MA and the Cape this run though....so again, another tick and it gets pretty good there.

That shitstreak is gonna kill us....this is a better run, but that shortwave to the north is just a total buzzkill preventing this from being a much bigger event.

NAM is definitely NW....H5 looks a good amount better to me through 21h

00z rpm looks a bit NW again through 24

Maybe. But that SE ridge is a monster and we have a pretty deep trough out west. It's going to be a battle but not guaranteed we end up cold for the storm. Hopefully for the ski areas we get that southward trend that has happened in all of these at the day 4-6 range. That would keep them mostly snow.

Have you accurately overlayed the model forecasts on the satellite while also determining where the vortmax is?

Didn't you punt this 2 days ago?

I think it was even a bit later than that. I remember him most of that winter. RIP

I remember temps in the 60s in SE CT during the waning stages of the December 2008 ice storm. We were 30F and freezing drizzle with the entire grid down while SE CT was gusting to like 50 knots out of the S or SSE? I just remember seeing temps breaching 60 and thinking "holy sh**, what a temp gradient"

Honestly I wasn't even looking at the sfc when I made that post. Was just toggling h5. Sfc looks healthier though even if it didn't tick as much as h5 did.

Back that CCB up another 50-75 miles and then there'll be some fireworks

Euro is prob 1-3" SE of a BOS-IJD line.

18z Euro ticking NW too.

Yeah that happens a lot...that's why we need a big bump NW at 00z. Although every once in a while we avoid the messenger shuffle.

Here comes the RPM again.

Another excruciatingly small tick NW on the GFS....but again, get a couple more of those and it's advisory snows for SE MA and RI anyway....maybe far S CT too.

18z Reggie ticked NW too....but man, these are excruciating moves. For far SE places like PYM/Cape and S RI....a couple more of these small ticks would actually get it done for perhaps advisory snows. For the rest of us, we'll need something more substantial...and SE MA will need it too if they want something closer to warning snows.