ORH_wxman

BTW, pretty cool to get snow this morning (even if just a few flakes) while the midlevels were like +4, lol. That -4 to -5C layer around 900-950mb plus the low level lift off the ocean with salt nuclei gave some flakes underneath the inversion.

Well the other guidance has trended significantly toward the Euro. So if it ends up going back, they got duped too.

No, that is highly unlikely given that there's too many people who have oversight of something like that. Plus the data is pretty transparent...we can all see it and how much it is off by. I think the most likely answer is a siting issue....though we can't totally rule out that maybe their testing equipment gave them a false positive for the ASOS sensor being ok...but I'd put those odds extremely low too. In the past, these errors have typically been corrected pretty quickly (KCON up at GYX a couple years back...and KORH actually had an issue several years before that which was fixed pretty fast....and I recall KAFN maybe circa 2009 or 2010).

A siting issue would be something smaller scale right near the ASOS....like they placed a bunch of crushed rocks around the site instead of grass (this happened at KCON but GYX discovered it and changed it)...or some recent construction/disturbance near the site...in that latter case, you might shift the ASOS station to another part of the airfield. But obviously they have to find the issue first....it's clearly not representative of east Boston or Winthrop. We can't blame the usual "oh it's out in Boston harbor"....we're already accounting for that when we are talking errors. It has a steep divergence from all the east Boston and Winthrop mesonet sites in mid/late 2018 including multiple sites literally next to the airport at Jeffries Point....and of course, Winthrop is east of the airport even more out in the harbor.

Pretty sure NWS BOX has already checked the ASOS equipment multiple times but found it ok....but I've yet to hear anything about investigating the siting variables. It's obviously running warm by about 2-3F since mid/late 2018. It's definitely becoming a problem WRT local records though. There's already an incorrect monthly record too...last July was the "warmest July on record" at BOS, but everyone knows it's total bunk. None of the other climo sites were even close.

They aren't that far off. GEFS are a little slower. But even at 138 hours, here's the OP GFS. Primary still dominant over ROC....then the GEFS at 144 are pretty similar

It's been pretty good regardless but it might have kept us all snow this run with an IVT hanging back. Def a weenie run. Ill be happy though with the classic 6-10 with a little IP/ZR and dryslot. Like the euro shows.

We can prob still ignore that system in SNE. Needs to trend south quite a bit.

06z GFS is almost a straight Miller B for weekend. Redeveloping low pretty early.

Pretty nice trend on euro for the weekend. Trying to redevelop the low more to our south. It's taking other model guidance to the woodshed for Thursday too it appears. I was a bit skeptical as it's generally compromised a bit when it's on an island but it doesn't appear that way this time. Thursday is toast in SNE but NNE could get a nice little advisory type event to get the ball rolling again. Maybe low end warning in spots.

GFS is def a nice front ender for SNE and all snow for NNE. Pretty good storm for spreading the wealth.

Thursday isn't gonna do it in SNE. Maybe some in interior elevated MA. But that system looks like CNE/NNE if it produces anything. A lot of guidance was sheared but Euro is winning the battle it looks like right now. Most guidance tonight trending toward it.

Oh nice. That's kind of similar to the collaboration site there but that ones only goes to 48. Thanks.

Where do you see rgem to 84? (Unless you are getting it in house) Used to be able to get it on uqam but now it seems it only works to 72 with the exception of the total qpf maps which still go to 84.

Yes. Got plenty of juice but it's hard to get more than a foot in those. Maybe some enhanced areas get 15ish. It could trend more redeveloper obviously. Then we could be talking about bigger totals.

I'm still selling those ridiculous totals unless it morphs into a more legit Miller B coastal.

Sell the qpf shown. It's likely overdone. It's a good threat though even if we take 50-60% of the qpf.

Yesterday and today actually reminded me a bit of the day before the 3/31-4/1, 1997 storm...just a bit windier than back then. Of course.... different pattern and time of year. We did get into the 60s about a week before the January 2005 blizzard. That month was Jekyll and Hyde.

I deleted the politics posts. Let's keep them out of here.

No I was agreeing with you. I thought the SV maps looked a little too feeble. I didn't word it very well though.

Looks to have some staying power. The first round looks not obscenely cold but when that PNA/EPO ridge rebuilds around 1/25 or so then we could see some more arctic shots. Think of the change occurring in like two phases. The initial phase is this weekend and early next week. Definitely colder and legit snow threats but the initial EPO block folding over and joining the PNA ridge is not the longer term change...that actually is only short lived and then reloads as a more coherent wave several days later. So that few day period in between could be more like seasonable temps.

It looked pretty feeble to me too in CT based on what I saw on the EPS for this weekend. But algorithm's....etc, etc.

I feel like it's a bit too amped but it could score the full coup. It's done it before.

You might have since yesterday could have been using most of that energy to warm up the interior of the snow pack. Once that pack gets sufficiently warmed, it releases pretty fast. But it can start slow if the interior pack is pretty cold.

Yeah I'm kind of hoping they pop 75 so that the monthly record is real. If they end up with 73 then it has a bigger asterisk than normal since the old record was 72F.