ORH_wxman

AMO is pretty staunchly positive on last update...at least on CPC. Most Ninas in the late 1960s/1970s had -PDO/-AMO. 2008-2009 and 2011-2012 did too, though the AMO was barely negative those years....doubt it had much of an influence.

That would be an electrical bath for all of New England probably....lol. Though in reality, looking at that longwave ridge position out west, the whole thing would be shoved well southeast in the winter polar jet environment. That's an incredible airmass for early September in the plains though....they might get some snow into western Nebraska and not just the Rockies foothills.

Yeah you need a really tight gradient to get snow in W MA out of an ORH track. That’s like saying a track over scooters fanny is perfect for ORH...which we know it isn’t. But occasionally there will be one that is great that hugs the coast in MA (like Dec 1996 or even 12/9/05) that slams ORH to S NH. The tilt matters a lot. Vday 2007 had the sfc low over ACK but it jackpotted E NY and VT because the mid level centers were tilted quite a bit NW. Xmas 2005 had the sfc low over interior E MA but it jackpotted CAR to north of YUL and had mostly rain in N VT because that midlevel centers were initially flooding warm air pretty far north before tightening up over ORH to PWM...but by then it was too late to really take advantage unless you were in Canada to far N Maine. Sometimes we get storms that get a large area of New England. We always mention dec 2003 but there’s also March 2001, February 1969, or even February 1978 (although Stowe prob got screwed in that while phineas and Alex got 30”+ and even Kmart cleaned up)

A low tracking over ORH is a shit track for just about all of New England outside of like N Maine. Maybe N VT does good depending on how tilted it is and in a few rare cases if the storm is really tightly wound, the Berkshires or taconics might do ok.

2005-2006 was pretty cruddy, though some areas of SNE did pretty well, esp in CT....NNE not so much. I wouldn't hate that winter, but not exactly routing for it. 1985-1986 was pretty crappy too for a good chunk of New England...parts of NNE...esp VT...did well that winter, but a lot of cold/rainer/cold/rainer type pattern that year. I think we'd take almost any other winter on there....maybe not 1974-1975....esp coastal SNE, though the interior did ok.

This year is pretty much at the bottom of the solar cycle too....so if we try and filter for that amongst our remaining years, you get 1974-1975 and 2017-2018 which wasn't at the bottom but both were descending pretty close to it. Other near-solar min winters were 2008-2009, 1995-1996, and 1985-1986. Again, not much similarity between any of those.

Weak La Nina is probably the most likely...followed by cold-neutral...Going back to 1970: 2017-2018 (weak Nina) 2016-2017 (weak Nina) 2013-2014 (cold neutral) 2008-2009 (weak Nina) 2005-2006 (weak Nina) 2000-2001 (weak Nina) 1996-1997 (cold neutral) 1995-1996 (weak Nina) 1985-1986 (cold neutral) 1983-1984 (weak Nina) 1974-1975 (weak Nina) 1971-1972 (weak Nina) It seems this year is trying to trend more toward -PDO which we have had trouble attaining in recent years after the extremely deep -PDO years from 2007-2013. Don't get me wrong, this year is not like the deep -PDO years such as 2008-2009, however, it doesn't look like the 2013-2014, 1995-1996, or 1980s type years either. Could be something in-between more like 2017-2018, 2005-2006, or 2000-2001...or 1974-1975 where we had mildly -PDOs that maybe briefly popped neutral or positive for a month or so.

There was a crazy gradient there...probably 15"+ about 6-7 miles south of where you are now.

Tribal instincts eventually infect everything. It's gotten worse over the past couple decades with the advent of biased cable news channels and internet forums/social media where everyone can retreat to their own echo chambers. It's becoming like that in where people choose to live as well. The less contact we have with people who are not exactly like us, the more we dehumanize those other people in our minds....and that's the fastest way to rationalize atrocious behavior toward other people....you view them as an evil non-human enemy....tribalism is strong.

Once you get into the interior of the tug hill, it really goes bonkers with the snowpack...assisted by some CAD there that you don’t get further west and of course there’s extra moisture too further into the tug hill from both LES and synoptic systems. I’ve seen bare ground around Hastings or Parish after a bad thaw but there’s still 3 feet OTG once near Barnes Corners.

My wife belongs to most of the community groups around here...and they seem mostly fine and I can get why you'd want to use them for community info. But there have been some occasional vile fights on there. The one skivt2 is part of at Killington seems especially toxic though...there's gotta be another source of community info around there so you don't have to be subjected to those morons.

Skivt2 just threw her computer out the window.

Commercial real estate is a blood bath right now...I would bet dollars to donuts that's where a ton of the construction job losses are at.

Employment rate of younger adults/teens has steadily declined since peaking in the 1980s. Back then, ages 16-24 employment rate was 60%...it hovered around 58% in the 1990s and in the 2010s it's been consistently below 50% until 2017 when it finally made it back over 50% until the pandemic put a screeching halt to that trend.

Yeah the full fallout hasn't happened yet. That probably won't be felt completely until sometime next year. My guess is Q1/Q2 2021.

Yeah in most winters where I have a snow pack intact for weeks on end, it’s usually accompanied by multiple storms refreshing the pack every so often. You get the rare winter where it snows a ton and then rots for 3 weeks (this happened in feb 2014 after we got crushed like 4 times in 10 days and then didn’t get crap for the next 3-4 weeks...and the snow pack started to get those radar shards from sublimation) but I feel 90% of the time it’s inherent that you are getting snow to refresh it. In your area, it’s true to an extreme. You’ll get upslope in addition to all the synoptic stuff.

Having gone to college out in central/western NY and also chased while out there, I have a love/hate relationship with LES. I think in the middle of an intense LES event can be hard to top...especially when it’s perfect snow growth and little wind...it’s almost magical seeing the 5” per hour stuff just stack straight up. But there is definitely a post-storm depression aspect of it when you look and it’s all compressed down to one third of its original depth within a day or two. Also, when that big event is elusive and you’re just seeing these 1-3” type events while it’s ripping 10” of high-QPF snow off to your east, it gets very frustrating very quickly. You start craving even a 6-7” synoptic snow with some meat to it.

Probably a good move re: NH plates. I definitely expect some states to freak out again this fall when cases jump back up (and they will), and that could affect access to ski resorts.

I was in BUF like 10 days after their 82” storm in late dec 2001, and it looked like they had gotten like 20”. LES is pretty sweet when it’s happening but the staying power is hideous, lol. Unless you’re in a place like the tug hill where it basically never stops.

Sometimes I feel that way but then I think about how many cold Marchs and Aprils we’ve had recently...although this year March was finally a torch again but then April took a dump on our face. Its also funny, we were getting so many warm Novembers for a while but the last couple have been absolutely frigid including our coldest November day on record in 2018. Recently, February has been a torch too after a string of cold and snowy ones from 2013-2015. Going on a strictly empirical analysis, December has warmed the most in our area (about 0.5F per decade) while January (about 0.15F per decade) has warmed the least out of the winter months. If you want the one month that hasn’t warmed at all (at least quickly looking at ORH airport since it’s inception in 1947)...October is your month.

I’ve always thought there was pretty compelling evidence that the 134F wasn’t real. Its a much tougher case to say for sure it was under 130F, but I don’t think questioning the 134F is that nefarious.

Historically there have been some crazy swings in temperatures in the ice cores and sediment cores. The Holocene has actually been unusually stable compared to previous epochs.

Yeah I think the Younger Dryas event about 13,000 years ago was the most cataclysmic climate event in the past 50 or 100 thousand years....and there's some evidence is may have produced mass cooling of several degrees C in as little as a few decades.....still off by a few orders of magnitude to the movie's days or a couple weeks if we're being generous.

There was a paper that came out maybe 7 or 8 years ago that was showing what snowfall averages would be across the US by the 2030s/2040s. The numbers were laughable....using their percent reductions by region, it would put ORH somewhere in the mid 30s inch range and BOS in the low 20s. If you took all of ORH and BOS winters that were torches (say more than 2F above average)....they'd average well above those projected values. I remember at the time running the numbers...I think BOS was like around 28-29" for their top 10 warmest winters and ORH was around 48-49". Sometimes these papers just don't pass the smell test....makes you wonder how they get through peer review. But then I have to remind myself that many of these people aren't scrutinizing snowfall the way some of us sickos do...they are probably more concerned with temps, and then throw the snowfall in there to perk up the paper. But still....if you're gonna throw in snowfall, make sure your numbers look realistic. As for the midwest/Great Lakes....they are in one of the areas of the CONUS that has seen the least winter warming in the last 30 years....the upper plains/upper Rockies actually has a cooling trend since the late 80s/early 90s....the Great Lakes and upper midwest are more like flat. It is definitely a result of these more commonplace AK ridges that we've seen the past 10-15 years....they really drive the cold air south into the northern plains/rockies and lakes....New England has been on this at times but not to the extent as the midwest/plains.

There's also unknown negative feedbacks....ala Hansen et al's "Day After Tomorrow" scenario where we see a mass Northern Hemispheric cooling event via the AMOC gone haywire. My original point wasn't really to take the "realistic" worst case scenario numbers as ironclad....more just add some relative probabilistic logic to the idea that Maine would become like NYC/EWR. The worst case scenarios require some "questionable" assumptions about energy use (such as reverting to so much coal that we have a 7-fold increase from current-day usage....this despite that coal has likely already peaked globally circa early/mid 2010s)