ORH_wxman

This weekend system reminds me of a weaker version of 12/9/09. That one had like 977mb into Lake Huron...but a similar high setup. Coast didn't do well in that but inland outside of 128 and even down through most of CT got a solid 5-8" with 8-12" up near northern MA border.

To each their own....some prefer 45F and mist to 75F and sunny. For me, I can get 75F and fair skies about 7-8 months out of the year. No thanks on taking that over 2-4 inches of snow. I'd take it over a 55F cutter though, lol. They'll be no more monster torches for the foreseeable future though....it's either 35-45F muck on Saturday/Sunday or some snow...I'll choose snow.

As Tip said from the rounders quote.....we can hardly remember a pot we won, but we recall with astounding clarity the details of our defeats.

Yeah....a lot of airports got built up....same thing happened to IAD (Dulles)....they cannot radiate nearly as well as they used to due to the urban growth around the airport. There's nothing you can do when that happens. But typically the changes happen gradually over time so it's not like this sudden step-change where one month it is fine, and then the next month it isn't. This could have happened to BTV in the 2000s...and 2010s...seems they had a couple periods where they drifted on MADIS and perhaps it was new growth causing that. In the case of BOS, it's already built up around the airport (and the rest is surrounded by water), so their issue must have happened on a smaller scale if it is indeed a siting issue.

Nothing...I'd take it but that's a view from the interior....it's kind of ugly for the coast of SNE...so if you are there, it's not going to be as appealing.

Ensembles are hinting at it too...a bit too far east at the moment, but watchable. The natural instinct is going to be for people to be pessimistic if this weekend turns into an ugly system.....but I'm pretty confident there are going to be a lot of potential storm threats in the 2 weeks after that....it's a really good pattern setting up. This weekend's threat is really before that happens. It's right as the first western ridge is trying to build.

Meh, it's gonna get cold and I'd rather not have bare ground for it. Euro is still close to warning snowfall here and that's fine with me. I have never been on the "all snow" train with this event. I've said it looks like a pretty typical SWFE from days ago so my expectations have never exceeded that. That said, I agree I'd like the primary toned down a bit...that would make the snowfall more enhanced here and last longer. Euro is definitely the most amped on the primary, but other guidance isn't that far off.

I'd still take that run....some taint, but good thump first. I just want everything covered again with several inches and then work from there when the good pattern sets in.

It definitely won't be stopped by NCDC (or NCEI it's called now)...being off 2-3F won't cause them to toss it because they probably aren't looking that much on a granular level. What makes it harder too is that KOWD is off it's rocker more recently too which isn't that far from KBOS, so it is artificially "validating" it in a sense. Hopefully NWS BOX figures it out, because they probably the only ones who will do anything about it. It won't be done at the NCDC level. I mean, Christ....we couldn't even get NCDC to change garbage snow data for ORH. Good luck on getting them to change BOS temp data that is off a couple degees.

About 10 days prior to 2015

Might cause problems out to like 128/I-95 or so late in the game before the tuck on that type of track....but def a strong thump before that.

Yeah fire it up....def a powderfreak to you storm....maybe dendrite is far enough north, but south of his area is pretty much garbage....maybe a flip late.

Weekend....Thursday is toast for SNE.

Cold tuck and flash freeze for you Sunday morning with weenie snows.

A stronger Thursday system does help advect that legit arctic airmass further south. Give us more wiggle room when we have -12C 850 temps right before the event. Euro has been a bit less enthused with that further south arctic air despite being pretty potent with the Thursday system so we'll see...it's still getting good cold over us for sure, but the GFS has been deeper with it.

GFS is really cold and basically turning into a miller B this run.

Yeah James, you aren't getting snow from the Thursday system...maybe a few flakes at the very end is all I'd hope for.

BTW, pretty cool to get snow this morning (even if just a few flakes) while the midlevels were like +4, lol. That -4 to -5C layer around 900-950mb plus the low level lift off the ocean with salt nuclei gave some flakes underneath the inversion.

Well the other guidance has trended significantly toward the Euro. So if it ends up going back, they got duped too.

No, that is highly unlikely given that there's too many people who have oversight of something like that. Plus the data is pretty transparent...we can all see it and how much it is off by. I think the most likely answer is a siting issue....though we can't totally rule out that maybe their testing equipment gave them a false positive for the ASOS sensor being ok...but I'd put those odds extremely low too. In the past, these errors have typically been corrected pretty quickly (KCON up at GYX a couple years back...and KORH actually had an issue several years before that which was fixed pretty fast....and I recall KAFN maybe circa 2009 or 2010).

A siting issue would be something smaller scale right near the ASOS....like they placed a bunch of crushed rocks around the site instead of grass (this happened at KCON but GYX discovered it and changed it)...or some recent construction/disturbance near the site...in that latter case, you might shift the ASOS station to another part of the airfield. But obviously they have to find the issue first....it's clearly not representative of east Boston or Winthrop. We can't blame the usual "oh it's out in Boston harbor"....we're already accounting for that when we are talking errors. It has a steep divergence from all the east Boston and Winthrop mesonet sites in mid/late 2018 including multiple sites literally next to the airport at Jeffries Point....and of course, Winthrop is east of the airport even more out in the harbor.

Pretty sure NWS BOX has already checked the ASOS equipment multiple times but found it ok....but I've yet to hear anything about investigating the siting variables. It's obviously running warm by about 2-3F since mid/late 2018. It's definitely becoming a problem WRT local records though. There's already an incorrect monthly record too...last July was the "warmest July on record" at BOS, but everyone knows it's total bunk. None of the other climo sites were even close.

They aren't that far off. GEFS are a little slower. But even at 138 hours, here's the OP GFS. Primary still dominant over ROC....then the GEFS at 144 are pretty similar

It's been pretty good regardless but it might have kept us all snow this run with an IVT hanging back. Def a weenie run. Ill be happy though with the classic 6-10 with a little IP/ZR and dryslot. Like the euro shows.

We can prob still ignore that system in SNE. Needs to trend south quite a bit.