ORH_wxman

I was actually going to post this yesterday (but then got distracted) in response to one of your posts because you mention it a lot...and did so again here....but yeah, check out the loss of heights down in the subtropical region in the gulf of Mexico, Florida, etc....that 570/576dm height lines have basically replaced the 582s and 588s that have dominated so far.

Jan 1913 and 1932 were basically an entire month of what the first 13 days of January 2020 have been....like a +10 to +11 for entire month....we won't repeat though...decent chance we trim the departures down to like +2 to +4 or so by end of month...except BOS you can just add 2 degrees of departure to what places like ORH/PVD put up.

Might be some liquid even in the interior but prob not a lot. Well see on the triple point development though. Guidance typically underdoes that until we get closer. I'm still leery of a stronger primary though as the pattern is not ideal. The antecedent airmass is really what is giving us a chance.

Trend this into a 6-10" event for ray to ORH and 495 belt while coast gets 2" and then rain...then I think we'll be there.

I moved the whining posts to the panic room. I was pretty liberal in leaving the ones that at least mentioned the storm.

Basically no significant changes on the 00z runs. Interior SNE still looks good for a thump. Coast prob flips pretty quick with onshore flow. Pattern still looks very good beyond the weekend threat as well. This weekend could still trend either way. There's a good high out ahead of it so if the shortwave trends to digging for oil southeast better then I think we'd turn this into a warming event as it would spawn redevelopment sooner. If the shortwave trends to shearing negative off to our northwest more, then we just keep that primary dominant and the event is far less interesting in terms of winter wx.

It's 5 days out. I'm guessing there's going to be some movement between now and verification.

Yeah probably. I remember the immediate coast getting hardly anything. You'd prob get a few inches this time. But this could obviously change a lot still. It's 5 days out. Kind of hard to believe since it's been on the models for 3-4 days already.

This weekend system reminds me of a weaker version of 12/9/09. That one had like 977mb into Lake Huron...but a similar high setup. Coast didn't do well in that but inland outside of 128 and even down through most of CT got a solid 5-8" with 8-12" up near northern MA border.

To each their own....some prefer 45F and mist to 75F and sunny. For me, I can get 75F and fair skies about 7-8 months out of the year. No thanks on taking that over 2-4 inches of snow. I'd take it over a 55F cutter though, lol. They'll be no more monster torches for the foreseeable future though....it's either 35-45F muck on Saturday/Sunday or some snow...I'll choose snow.

As Tip said from the rounders quote.....we can hardly remember a pot we won, but we recall with astounding clarity the details of our defeats.

Yeah....a lot of airports got built up....same thing happened to IAD (Dulles)....they cannot radiate nearly as well as they used to due to the urban growth around the airport. There's nothing you can do when that happens. But typically the changes happen gradually over time so it's not like this sudden step-change where one month it is fine, and then the next month it isn't. This could have happened to BTV in the 2000s...and 2010s...seems they had a couple periods where they drifted on MADIS and perhaps it was new growth causing that. In the case of BOS, it's already built up around the airport (and the rest is surrounded by water), so their issue must have happened on a smaller scale if it is indeed a siting issue.

Nothing...I'd take it but that's a view from the interior....it's kind of ugly for the coast of SNE...so if you are there, it's not going to be as appealing.

Ensembles are hinting at it too...a bit too far east at the moment, but watchable. The natural instinct is going to be for people to be pessimistic if this weekend turns into an ugly system.....but I'm pretty confident there are going to be a lot of potential storm threats in the 2 weeks after that....it's a really good pattern setting up. This weekend's threat is really before that happens. It's right as the first western ridge is trying to build.

Meh, it's gonna get cold and I'd rather not have bare ground for it. Euro is still close to warning snowfall here and that's fine with me. I have never been on the "all snow" train with this event. I've said it looks like a pretty typical SWFE from days ago so my expectations have never exceeded that. That said, I agree I'd like the primary toned down a bit...that would make the snowfall more enhanced here and last longer. Euro is definitely the most amped on the primary, but other guidance isn't that far off.

I'd still take that run....some taint, but good thump first. I just want everything covered again with several inches and then work from there when the good pattern sets in.

It definitely won't be stopped by NCDC (or NCEI it's called now)...being off 2-3F won't cause them to toss it because they probably aren't looking that much on a granular level. What makes it harder too is that KOWD is off it's rocker more recently too which isn't that far from KBOS, so it is artificially "validating" it in a sense. Hopefully NWS BOX figures it out, because they probably the only ones who will do anything about it. It won't be done at the NCDC level. I mean, Christ....we couldn't even get NCDC to change garbage snow data for ORH. Good luck on getting them to change BOS temp data that is off a couple degees.

About 10 days prior to 2015

Might cause problems out to like 128/I-95 or so late in the game before the tuck on that type of track....but def a strong thump before that.

Yeah fire it up....def a powderfreak to you storm....maybe dendrite is far enough north, but south of his area is pretty much garbage....maybe a flip late.

Weekend....Thursday is toast for SNE.

Cold tuck and flash freeze for you Sunday morning with weenie snows.

A stronger Thursday system does help advect that legit arctic airmass further south. Give us more wiggle room when we have -12C 850 temps right before the event. Euro has been a bit less enthused with that further south arctic air despite being pretty potent with the Thursday system so we'll see...it's still getting good cold over us for sure, but the GFS has been deeper with it.

GFS is really cold and basically turning into a miller B this run.

Yeah James, you aren't getting snow from the Thursday system...maybe a few flakes at the very end is all I'd hope for.