ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah pretty decent. Keep in mind we have to shave a couple inches off over the interior there because that snow map is including tonight/tomorrow morning. I'd like to see a little bit better DPVA slamming us from the southwest to go more than 3-5" but beggars can't be choosers...there's still time.
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Euro tickling colder. That's not a terrible look. Nothing amazing but probably 3-6 for everyone off the water in SNE.
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Euro is doing it too at 12z. In fact it's getting 1-2" all the way down to N CT. I'll admit I didn't think this would trend that hard south inside 36 hours. We'll see if it's enough to cause a little AM commute surprise for the pike/Rt 2 region early tomorrow...or if it's just a coating to an inch car topper.
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I don't really see the MJO getting into phase 8 on current guidance. Seems to go back into the COD after phase 7. That might change of course. But I'm not surprised we don't see an MJO phase 8 look right now on guidance because it's not getting there.
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Yeah I don't hate that D8-11 look at all. I like the reduced gradient with potential for storms. I think the PAC becomes more amplified again after that too. A lot of good ninos had a look somewhat similar to that for long stretches. 1958 and 1978 come to mind.
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NAM trying to go low end advisory snows for maybe ORH up to hubbdave and out to Chris in greenfield.
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It doesn't just prolong the cold a little bit...I'd think the more important aspect is that it will enhance the thump. You'll start getting a more defined warm front building from the sfc upward. Usually just north of it you can get some pretty intense rates for a time.
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00z GGEM definitely started showing redevelopment to our south. First model that has showed this in days. My gut says we'll see more hints of this as we get closer just because of the natural baroclinic zone down there. It's gonna be very cold initially so there's going to want to be a sfc reflection to the southeast.
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Model consensus is prettt much 2-6" outside of 128/NW of 95 including CT as well. We'll see if we can start trending the redevelopment a little bit and that could enhance the amounts.
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North of pike maybe squeezes out an inch or two in SNE.
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Thump looked a little better on euro tonight for weekend system. GGEM also finally became the first model to start showing the sfc redevelopment again south of us. We'll have to see if that's a trend other guidance picks up on.
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18z GFS was a little better for the weekend. Def a tick colder. Prob first run in about 6 cycles that was better than the previous one. Hopefully we can start slowly but surely trending the triple point redevelopment.
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Yeah...well if this keeps trending, not sure we'll have much to build off of....lol. Thump is trending weaker. Hopefully we see some trending back in the good direction. Still plenty of time as it's 108 hours out.
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Yeah OP had like 4" for you...EPS prob similar. It would warm up though above freezing for a time. It wouldn't be enough to melt it off though.
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About the same as the OP.
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Seems hard to find...but I found this paper https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF903.1 go down to "page 100" and they talk about it. Looks like they reference some other literature too.
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Last night's 00z run was colder than the 12z run yesterday too....so I agree its a bit cherry-picked. But that is also an HDD weenie...they really care more about extreme cold than they do about storms and snow.
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I actually really like that relaxed gradient (Canada a bit blocky) type flow around D9-11....that's how we get some of our good miller Bs like 1/12/11 and Xmas 2002...it's kind of a split flow look. Then the PNA/EPO take it up another level after that like you hinted at.
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Yeah them and I think Philly is even worse....my guess is theyll score in the upcoming pattern sometime between Jan 22-Feb 5 or so.
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Maybe we can get Wilmington NC ahead of NYC for seasonal snowfall on the Euro at day 8?
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Euro is even a bit stronger with primary this run....not that impressed with the thump. A few good hours of snow, but prob like 2-5" for most of SNE. Maybe spot 6" northern interior. The dynamics are compromised a bit with that ridiculous primary. We want a hint of redevelopment (triple point) because that is how you get those bent back ML fronts....we don't really have that on this look. It's even a fairly tepid event for NNE because of this...maybe 5-7 deal there until you get into N ME.
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Euro is pretty cold...northern SNE folks could get grab an inch or so out ofthis if that verified. Like Ray's hood to pickles to Hunchie/Chris. Maybe even down to the pike....I'm skeptical, but who knows.
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Guidance isn't really showing a very good/defined triple point at the sfc....I suspect that will happen as we get closer...or this will just trend more to a full blown cutter with some front end snow. My guess is the former will happen given the analogs on this type of setup....12/3/07, 1/30/87, etc.
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Models aren't doing a good job of showing it right now...because they never do at this stage....but there could be a pretty nasty CF on this for a time. Like 20F on one side and 34F on the other type stuff during the first 6 hours of the event. It's a pretty classic look actually given that the high is not in an ideal spot for the coast...so there's going to be a front inland somewhere.
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Well it was always a possibility....but i agree it was probably not the most likely outcome. GFS almost looks a bit more sheared and compressed....I'm thinking that type of look is going to be like 3-6" across interior SNE (lowest amounts south, highest amounts north)....not much more than that.
