ORH_wxman

Could be a weenie band at the end that is underforecasted. That is a pretty sweet look in the midlevels. Only limiting factor might be that the tail end is during the daylight hours so it will be fighting the April 18th sun angle.

Hard to say as I didn't have any good data from NE CT when I made the May '77 map. I only had the Storrs coop which is lower elevation. I even checked old newspapers back then when I made the map. My guess is Tolland probably at least got warning snowfall....but hard to say whether it was 6" or 10". Most of CT south of about HFD didn't report measurable, so there was definitely less cooling as you headed south.

Yeah, here;s the April 28-29, 1987 map

It still looks like you might get some. Might happen a little later in the event there. Initially it’s a bit warm in the boundary layer down there.

Overnight runs didn’t change much. Pretty solid look for a good slice of SNE. The accumulation aspect will definitely be influenced by rates...especially in the lower elevations.

Only brought it up because N CT had snow on that date. Not sure it was measurable though. We had about an inch in ORH.

What about 5/18/02?

Yes it does.

That’s as good a zone as any right now. Maybe sneaking up to NH/VT southern borders.

18z euro holding steady. Still thinking there could be a narrow stripe of plows or snowfall on that look.

Not really like this one. That one was a pseudo redeveloper on a sharply diving in shortwave from the lakes. Produced huge qpf though. Almost had an IVT type feature that enhanced it. The craziest part of the ‘87 storm was that most of the snow accumulated during peak insolation....like between noon and 6pm.

4/28-29/87 had warning criteria in far NE CT. 17.0” fell at ORH but towns like Union down to Tolland had 8-10”.

Here is 925mb...starts a little warm down south, but cools quickly...

Started a thread about Friday night/Sat morning

Decided to start a new thread for this one since we're now inside of 3 days and it's looking pretty decent for a burst of moderate to heavy snow over a chunk of SNE and perhaps CNE. There's actually a pretty vigorous shortwave with this, although positive tilted which will prevent it from wrapping up too much. But there should be a nice ribbon of ML fronto associated with it and perhaps an attempt to prolong the precip with a developing CCB late in the game. Here's the 12z Euro below. The diurnal timing is pretty good for accumulations as this is mostly a nighttime event, though it will linger into morning/midday in eastern areas.

If lift is good, it'll be 33F down to valleys too...and prob like 31-32F at elevation. It's pretty classic for this time of the year...the models will overestimate the sfc temp in heavier snow and underestimate it when its really light. Folks can think about it like this: 1. If it's "worth" tracking....i.e. a heavier event, then it's probably going to snow and accumulate down to the lower elevations 2. If it stays weak and light, it's probably white rain for most with light accumulations at elevation

I don't see 28F unless it cools more. You typically want at least like -3C or -4C or so at 925mb this time of the year. If it wrapped up into a more of a CCB, then it's possible it could transition to that in the 2nd half of the event, but I'm doubtful. I'd expect paste....assuming this happens. It could still crap out on us.

Yeah it’s the classic “precip hanging back longer than models show” type look. It’s trying to focus the heaviest stuff on the WAA fronto, but there’s pretty solid dynamic support behind that with the vigorous vortmax. It has the look of some narrow stripe getting hit pretty good that gets both the WAA fronto and then the attempted CCB hanging back....time of the year will be a limiting factor of course. But a warning stripe wouldn’t surprise me.

06z Euro has a pretty nice look as well...that's a little critter at H5. Could be a nice stripe of moderate to heavy snow to the north of that vort.

That’s some nice fronto on the euro.

18z euro coming north again. Looking snowier for Friday night.

Euro coming back north for 4/17-18...12z GFS was already there, but now Euro trying to bring the precip shield into CT/RI. .

Sell the Euro for now...marginal setup there. Also, guidance seems to really be having trouble on which shortwaves to focus on later in the week. Each model seems to have its own solution.Not much agreement.

As far as compaction in April goes, I remember vividly the 2nd storm of back to back in April 1996 in ORH...we got clobbered with about 16”. I remember the snow was heavy until mid to late morning. I measured a depth of around 14-15” at 1030am...not even 4 hours later it was about 37-38F and overcast after the snow had fully stopped for a couple hours. I measured about 7” of compact cement. I couldn’t believe how quick it had settled.

Yeah it’s about 250-275 higher than his place. The house is around 1500. Not a huge elevation difference but in a marginal setup it can matter. Also, it’s April and compaction is going to be big once the sun comes out. Looked sunny in that pic.