ORH_wxman

That doesn't look cold at all. GGEM is what you want. EPS are not bad but that Ukie look is actually pretty putrid...want heights in Quebec a couple notches lower.

Just over 4 inches. Pretty satisfied with the event. Started slow but had a pretty nice finish. Still snowing lightly but looks like the meaningful stuff is done...maybe another couple tenths depending on what little batches try to redevelop in the next 30-60 min.

About 3.5ish eyeballing. Should pass 4 pretty easily. It's ripping with gorgeous dendrites the past hour or so. Prob have had over an inch in the past hour. First 3-4 hours were putrid sand. Really nice finale to the event.

Pretty good final hour

They did...next run is Monday. I suspect week 2 will look pretty crappy, but who knows. The EPS could change its tune too...they've been pretty swingy lately.

These bands definitely produce some good snow growth....way better than the first half of the storm which was almost exclusively baking powder junk. Too bad it's not gonna last more than another hour to 90 minutes or so...maybe 2 hours if lucky.

We're taking about different things. There's a chance for the storm next weekend to pan out. But it easily could be nothing. Kevin seems focus only on that storm. Then later on scooter and I were discussing the putrid EPS look after next weekend in the 11-15 day...that looks like dogshit but if you want to put lipstick on the pig you could say we have some ways that it could produce....split flow and some ridging up near Hudson Bay could make it tolerable versus an all-out disaster like '01-02 or '11-'12. We'll see though...it could keep trending worse too. But it definitely wasn't a good look in the 11-15. That's different than saying the day 8 system has a shot.

Getting much better snow growth in these bands that look a bit more convective looking. It was baking powder/dandruff before but now some actual dendrites mixed in.

This sucker is racing....I'd expect maybe another 2-3 hours of snow here.

Someone else may be able to answer this better than me, but if the ASOS is not convinced that all the vis drop is solely from precip intensity but also from BLSN or fog, then it will report less then heavy. I'm not sure how it detects how much of the vis drop is from precip intensity though. I know it can sense falling precip obviously but it somehow distinguishes it from blowing snow too. In the case of BDR today, not sure why it didn't report heavy snow because winds were light and there's no actual fog.

Yeah I think everything is on track more or less. Most guidance didn't have more than an inch or two by 00z in western areas and very little at all in eastern areas. Models did cut back a little bit in SW CT today but they were kind of going wild there previously with more than half inch of qpf. Still looks like widespread advisory event for most posters with maybe some marginal warning amounts in the northwest interior areas and maybe a lolli or two further east where someone gets left with a couple transient bands maxing out. This is basically a 4-6 hour thump of light to moderate snow. Only briefly heavy in transient bands...with maybe 2 hours of lighter junk of each side of that period.

Yes. Only spot that is semi-decent is Canada with the higher heights in Hudson Bay and then at least the D9-15 range we have split flow out west which prevents a full-on 2001-2002 or 2011-2012 disaster.

Had weenie flakes for about 10 minutes and then it shut off. The real stuff looks about 45 min away from starting.

Pig gone wild this run of EPS. That is putrid. Only thing that kind of saves us is split flow out west.

HRRR is trying to advertise this as well.

18z rap loves the pike regionup into S NH/S VT for 6"+...not sure I'm buying that but the early start of the snow is a good sign. Not a ton of virga it seems like...surprisingly.

Yeah there's potential. But again...marginal airmass...here the Miller B look I was mentioning to the Pope earlier...I do like that high though.

We need Tip to give us a detailed description of the d7-8 euro where he hears birds chirping the day before the storm and the inside of the his car is warmed from the sun...then dark clouds move in and noodles start falling from the sky and the chimney smoke is now drifting southwest...and everything flips to heavy wet snow.

GFS actually has some snow next weekend now. The central Canada ridging is forcing some confluence and heights down to the east in Quebec which gives a decent high. None of this is really meaningful right now...but it shows what the ensembles were showing....if you get a decent high up there, then we can still score something with the storm approaching from the south.

Well with a better airmass we'd have more wiggle room on track. Say for example, we get the system tracking a bit west into PA and it's trying to develop off the Delmarva or jersey coast...a marginal airmass might cause problems in that scenario for SNE. But a colder airmass and that's all snow all the way. If the storm is already fully developed at the benchmark, then I agree it doesn't matter so much, but that is just the mean and it isn't showing all those miller B/redeveloping scenarios on storms that initially try to go a little further west.

Here's the GEFS and EPS below. They are both pretty bullish on a system somewhere near us next weekend but you can see the marginal temps too. It could easily be rain on a more west track or even a whiff SE. I suspect the fate of this system will drastically change perceptions of the pattern regardless.

Lol being 11-15 days out is always a caveat. Everyone should know that. The newer guidance looks pretty unstable in that time frame so I wouldn't jump off the bridge over it. But I suspect many will if the D8-10 period doesn't produce a wintry storm.

Mitch is gonna get like 6" of upslope/IVT snow after the thump.

Yeah the speed of this thing is a real hinderance on upside. It's going to be flying through.

NAM ramped up a little bit everywhere it looks like. Even the scooter screwjie is shrinking each run.