ORH_wxman

Yeah if it waited 150 miles to dive down t would have worked too...I'm just saying on previous runs, the ULL dove down in the same spot but it's where t tracked from thee that changed. 00z and 06z runs 30-36 hours ago had the ULL diving down into southern Missouri almost exactly where today's 12z run is...the problem is those runs then tracked it ENE across KY, WV, and eventually near philly and south of SNE. Today's run brings the low north-northeast through Southern Illinois and then Indiana and NW Ohio and into upstate NY. We lost the pseudo blocking mechanism that forced a more eastward track. A lot of that was probably due to the pressing arctic shortwave rounding the vortex near Greenland coming in weaker. There may have been some other nuances in Canada further west too.

This time you aren't exaggerating. It's rains right into Canada including all of NNE this run.

ULL between Cleveland and Detroit at 84 hours lol. This was literally like southeast of philly 36 hours ago.

It's the confluence that's really gone away. I don't mind the digging for oil. The last run that was looking really good here was yesterday's 06z euro. It was probably a touch south of today's run but in looking north of Maine, that pressing shortwave is significantly weaker now. If we had the ULL tracking further north, all that would happen is it would pinwheel up into Toronto or something.

Euro is a bit south with the ULL through 54 hours. Let's see how it still tracks it over SYR.

Lol. Nice. So those two models were the ones hammering the north ULL earlier and the euro and GFS caved to it. Wonder if they will cave again in another run or two.

What about the site where you have to tilt your head sideways?

MPM got a 17 inch snowstorm like 4 months after he moved to ORH. He's fine. Lol.

What's the Ukie say? Uqam hasn't updated in days.

Nah working all morning. Just checked in at lunch and this has gotten even worse. GFS is becoming the southern outlier and it still stinks for SNE. Im guessing this trend has CNE in the crosshairs next for termination. Lol. Maybe powderfreak can still do well. Well see if the euro wants to change the trend but I'm skeptical.

12z NAM has like +6 850 temps over SNE. Lol. Its by far the warmest aloft.

Well if you want to keep hope alive, the 06z EPS doesn't track the low over BDL like the 00z EPS did. Tracks it to scooters fanny instead.

Yeah with the current trend....any analog with the ULL south of SNE is tossed.

Reminds me of that storm on March 7-8, 2018 when BTV tossed the euro and all the guidance immediately trended toward it after that.

Yeah even when it was tracking over MVY he was still getting a rainstorm. Lol.

Euro went from tracking the ULL over like MVY to SYR in 24 hours. That's a good way to make a system irrelevant pretty quickly.

Folks, im moving the general winter posts to the January thread. Let's keep this one about the storm threat...even if it looks bad for YBY.

Yeah it literally almost goes due north the final 18 hours. But what's funny about that is the NAM actually doesn't look bad because it has a lot of low pressure well out to the east...it's almost as if it winds up far enough west and the energy pinwheeling to the east helps out with the overall ageostrophic look...granted, we're talking the 84h clown range NAM here but just another solution.

NAM is well south of 18z through 54 hours...and any other guidance. So that trend continues. Question is what happens later.

Agreed. We obviously need to stop the trend of the sling-shotting ULL northward once it reaches WV or so...I think that's well understood. But if that happens, then it is still very much a threat.

I think it's premature to call it over for SNE....particularly the interior elevated terrain.

Hubbdave gets kudos....aced this exam in under 12 hours. Lol. Guidance obviously "saw" something after 12z today that caused it to rotate the ULL north instead of ENE once it reached the Ohio valley. It could be wrong....but it's obviously what is causing the big move today. The ULL out to the west of that has actually been coming in pretty far south, so we can hope that starts to translate further east as we get closer. I agree that if 00z makes another big jump, then 12z is almost already out of the game. There's not a lot of margin for error on this system with this airmass. You couldn't expect this system to not move much at all when it was like 8-9 days out when we started tracking it.

I'd give the overnight suite and 12 tomorrow....we're still 4-5 days out. If it trends another solid tick N during those next two cycles, then it's probably lights out.

Pretty large bump northwest on the 18z EPS. ULL tracks over western MA now and the sfc low goes from NYC to scooters fanny. Easily the largest jump we've seen. Probably larger than the past 5 or 6 runs combined.

18z Euro looks zonked at 90h compared to 12z. Doesn't go out any further but that is probably close to game over for SNE if that verified. Though I want to be careful extrapolating too much since these ULLs like to wobble...the actual center of the ULL is slightly southwest of the 12z run but it's just much deeper and the confluence to the north looks a tad weaker so I don't really like the look...