ORH_wxman

We're gonna get sucked back in on the next threat. Already looking a lot more wintry on the EPS.

In fairness, the pattern is not the same as that SE ridge with 588 heights up into Atlanta...this was a very low gradient pattern with spring bowling ball potential. 576 line camping out down in south Florida. So I think there was some reason to believe it could easily bowl its way across the TN valley and off the coast of NJ. That was obviously negated by the confluence to the north weakening significantly in the past 36 hours allowing this to just pinwheel up into Ohio and now upstate NY. The lessening confluence seemed to go against the seasonal trend ironically...we had a lot of events where confluence seemed to strengthen as we got closer. Probably this mostly boils down to that it's hard for models to predict storms at 5-6 days out. Lot of moving parts and we didn't have much margin for error in this torchy El Niño look this week.

The pivotal map actually has a little weenie region of 850 temps below zero in the mahoosucs and whites. The wsi maps don't have that and have the like more up toward Rangeley and Sugarloaf. Wouldnt exactly give me the kushies though even if I was at Sunday river. But verbatim I can see why pivotal is showing paste.

Agreed. Esp in that type of setup. Not that is really matters anyway. What's going to stop this ULL from tracking into Toronto? Someone convince me it won't with a good argument. That confluence shortwave has trended weaker almost contuiously every run for the past 30 hours.

The pivotal maps look more weenieish than the basic slp/850 maps I posted. They seem to be supporting a lot of snow south of the 0C 850 line at 90 hours. Thats prob why there was some slight difference in opinion. Sounding must be close to isothermal for that to happen.

Here's 84

Maybe NW Maine? some areas try to flip on the backside but this is pretty ugly...maybe a few inches on the front end for Sunday river to Whites?

Yeah if it waited 150 miles to dive down t would have worked too...I'm just saying on previous runs, the ULL dove down in the same spot but it's where t tracked from thee that changed. 00z and 06z runs 30-36 hours ago had the ULL diving down into southern Missouri almost exactly where today's 12z run is...the problem is those runs then tracked it ENE across KY, WV, and eventually near philly and south of SNE. Today's run brings the low north-northeast through Southern Illinois and then Indiana and NW Ohio and into upstate NY. We lost the pseudo blocking mechanism that forced a more eastward track. A lot of that was probably due to the pressing arctic shortwave rounding the vortex near Greenland coming in weaker. There may have been some other nuances in Canada further west too.

This time you aren't exaggerating. It's rains right into Canada including all of NNE this run.

ULL between Cleveland and Detroit at 84 hours lol. This was literally like southeast of philly 36 hours ago.

It's the confluence that's really gone away. I don't mind the digging for oil. The last run that was looking really good here was yesterday's 06z euro. It was probably a touch south of today's run but in looking north of Maine, that pressing shortwave is significantly weaker now. If we had the ULL tracking further north, all that would happen is it would pinwheel up into Toronto or something.

Euro is a bit south with the ULL through 54 hours. Let's see how it still tracks it over SYR.

Lol. Nice. So those two models were the ones hammering the north ULL earlier and the euro and GFS caved to it. Wonder if they will cave again in another run or two.

What about the site where you have to tilt your head sideways?

MPM got a 17 inch snowstorm like 4 months after he moved to ORH. He's fine. Lol.

What's the Ukie say? Uqam hasn't updated in days.

Nah working all morning. Just checked in at lunch and this has gotten even worse. GFS is becoming the southern outlier and it still stinks for SNE. Im guessing this trend has CNE in the crosshairs next for termination. Lol. Maybe powderfreak can still do well. Well see if the euro wants to change the trend but I'm skeptical.

12z NAM has like +6 850 temps over SNE. Lol. Its by far the warmest aloft.

Well if you want to keep hope alive, the 06z EPS doesn't track the low over BDL like the 00z EPS did. Tracks it to scooters fanny instead.

Yeah with the current trend....any analog with the ULL south of SNE is tossed.

Reminds me of that storm on March 7-8, 2018 when BTV tossed the euro and all the guidance immediately trended toward it after that.

Yeah even when it was tracking over MVY he was still getting a rainstorm. Lol.

Euro went from tracking the ULL over like MVY to SYR in 24 hours. That's a good way to make a system irrelevant pretty quickly.

Folks, im moving the general winter posts to the January thread. Let's keep this one about the storm threat...even if it looks bad for YBY.

Yeah it literally almost goes due north the final 18 hours. But what's funny about that is the NAM actually doesn't look bad because it has a lot of low pressure well out to the east...it's almost as if it winds up far enough west and the energy pinwheeling to the east helps out with the overall ageostrophic look...granted, we're talking the 84h clown range NAM here but just another solution.