ORH_wxman

GFS juiced up a little bit.

Those maps look pretty good to me. Might be a little juicy off to the northwest...though the orographic spots will get additional snows on Sunday.

People generally obsess over the warnings vs advisory thing when it doesn't matter that much on a marginal forecast like this one....the difference between 5.5" and 6.5" can be covered by a million different uncertainties: ratios, banding, model qpf error, low level enhancement, etc.

Wonder if Jimmy finally gets his OES on Sunday night behind the system with the IVT trying to turn the winds more N....might be more outer cape though.

It's possible...but this is like a 6 hour storm for the meaningful precip. I'm a little skeptical of QPF that high...though the Euro has been showing it. Euro did back off some on the 12z run, so we'll see if that continues tonight.

I could see Mitch's area there getting an additional 6" of upslope combined with the IVT hanging back....but for the rest of the non-orographic dwellers, they def won't be getting double digits unless they get super lucky in some fluff band.

It's improved mildly today, but I'm not sure a single model supports anything over about 7 inches for anyone in this forum....unless there are like 15 to 1 ratios or higher...which there could be, but it is hard to forecast for that.

EPS are decent. After our marginal storm threat next weekend, they are trying to return to the +PNA pattern....almost with some split flow out west too, so there would be southern streamers in the mix. We don't have the huge -EPO though, prob just mildly negatuve....but we don't need it if we can keep the +PNA look there. Jan and early February 2001 played out that way actually.

Ripe for a scooter melt when you're choking out 2 mile vis needles and ORH-495 belt up to Ra is ripping 1/4 mile dendrites

4 is totally reasonable...8 is gonna require some ratios or a juicier trend...which could happen BTW. I'm probably nitpicking anyway. For all we know, this will ramp up the next two cycles and then this will all be moot. But the fast moving nature of this and lack of good strong DPVA is still bothering me a little for widespread warning criteria....though the latter has subtly trended better today.

I feel like the NWS offices have gone a bit wild on this one....but maybe it works out. Ratios could make it possible...if we're like closer to 15 to 1, but I am always hesitant to count on that. Def some guidance showing the crosshair sig. We could also still subtly trend that shortwave sharper instead of getting ground up...that would juice it up a little more too.

Yeah still torching inside 128. I'm selling that. Prob more confined to immediate shore.

There's some EPS support for GGEM type solution. It's not out of the question. Keep an open mind on that d6-10 pattern though. Quite uncertain.

You might stay below freezing the whole time of these trends hold. We'll see if the euro wants to hold that CF closer to the coast now like some of these other 12z runs.

RGEM tickled slightly colder for the southern peeps dealing with some changeover issues. Secondary is a little SE and more defined.

Yeah sure...if it develops a bit faster, then we'll see a more enhanced CF form and that will focus some lower lift just on the north/northwest side of it which could give some enhanced totals by an inch or two. Scott mentioned it earlier this morning I think...but somewhere from NE MA down 128/I-95 and then back WSW near the CT shoreline could see a little enhancement if that happens.

Lets get that secondary reflection going even a little faster...that could provide a little enhanced lower level lift.

I wouldn't get caught up in like one tenth changes to the qpf either. They could be meaningless. Look at h5 and midlevels instead to see if there's any support. Like I think the bump on the rgem is a little spurious. We're seeing a slightly better h5 shortwave not getting ground up quite as quickly, but I'm not sure I'd buy like a 2 tenth increase in qpf in spots. Some of it is the models trying to align a good leading fronto band too...and that could end up 30 miles either direction. Guidance typically isn't accurate enough to nail that with any consistency.

There's a way it could work...EPS shows how. Decent high to the north which would probably be enough with that approaching system from the south. I wouldn't get excited about this look, but it's not 2011-2012 either...though it could always still trend that way...

I'm pretty skeptical of warning snows anywhere that is widespread enough for WSW but who knows. I suppose 6" might be common enough if this thump ticks up a little bit.

Nah. It's ok but the really exciting look is gone. It may come back if weeklies are right in early February. The D 6-10 range is even more precarious. It could end up with a good storm but mild and cutter or no storm wouldn't be shocking. Ensembles do look better as we go out to 11-15 but usual caveats apply.

NAM held the shortwave together a bit longer. So it's trying to give us a little bit more enhanced thump.

This is what years of blockbusters do. High expectations and lots of hyping. We will all learn to appreciate the 3-6 inchers in time again just like the late 80s and early 90s.

Lol, this is totally not true...we saw most great patterns out in advance....2013, 2015, Mar 2018, etc....they do sometimes get pushed back, and sometimes they fail to materialize altogether, but it's definitely not true that we didn't see those types of patterns until inside 7 days.

Very well could be....I actually didn't even really hate the D8-11 look....the OP was ugly, but if we are keeping a light gradient with a blocky looking Canada, then we cna score some storms in that look. The OP Euro was trying to put a gradient in Canada which would trend us more toward a true torch vs just merely above normal but still cold enough for storm chances. And yeah, the GEPS/GEFS did look a lot better. So we'll see.