ORH_wxman

What about 2010-2011 there? That must have had pretty deep pack.

Totally forgot '09....yeah up here we actually had less than the southeast areas on Xmas morning. Prob like 8" or so. SE areas had over a foot probably. Yeah '08 was torched on the coast....I had to pick up my sister in Boston that morning, and drove into bare ground (with patches) while it was still like 7-8" of glacier in ORH. '07 actually survived a bit better on the coast I think.

Xmas 2017 was close, but no cigar...it was like 5" on top of 2-3" of glacier.

Yeah double digit snow pack on Xmas is rare on the coast...it's not super common here over the interior either though it happens a little more frequently. For the coast, off the top of my head, my guess would be maybe: 1995, 1975, 1970, 1961, 1945?, any earlier is knickers of yore territory and I don't have good knowledge embedded in me on those years....maybe i missed one or two in the late 20th century For a place like ORH, maybe you add on 2007, 2002 (if you count later in the afternoon...only was a couple inches at 7am), and perhaps 1966. Maybe 1960, though that storm had prob settled to below 10" by Xmas.

We were prob a little unlucky in Jan '71 but it made up for being lucky in Dec '70. Either way, it was a very solid winter....esp over the interior. The coast had some frustrating periods, esp in Feb '71...and I think there was another snow to ice event in early March too that prob sucked for the coast. It was an epic winter for CNE/NNE though....even just north of ORH had like 30" more snow...and ORH already had 80" that winter. I think the Ashburnham coop had like 105-110" or something.

That month had two big ice storms in the interior....a snow to ice scenario. Prob sucked for the coast. I think ORH was near normal snow in Feb '71 but had a ton of ice. I think it was the 2/7 or 2/8/71 that had the big one. Not quite on the level of Dec '08 or Dec '64 in ORH but pretty big ice storm. A lot of sleet saved it from being in the class with those others.

The New Years Day '71 system actually got squashed too far south for us....it was NYC's only good storm that winter. I think parts of CT got warning snows, but up in our area it was like 3-5".

I just pulled this up....you can see the two cores of cold...one in the typical area of the upper plains, but then a secondary cold max over New England....it was due to the NAO that winter. Prob lots of would-be cutters getting rejected and getting squashed south of New England as redevelopers, so west of the Apps gets warm-sectored on some of those while it never happens over this way...and that winter was super active for storms, so this happened a lot.

'70-'71 was absolutely frigid in New England despite the volatility out west. I don't have the exact figures in front of me but ORH went something like this for departures for DJFM.....-7, -6, -1, -5. I think the main reason for that was that winter had a predominately negative NAO with a poleward Aleutian ridge edged toward the WPO side....it's a very cold pattern for Canada, and then throw in a -NAO, it's a very exceptional pattern for New England. It quickly transitioned into above average temps int he southeast US.

They are pretty closely correlated so it doesn’t matter that much which one you follow for climate purposes. For “in-season predictions” though, NSIDC area is a much better predictor of both final minimum extent and area when you are a few months out (June/July). That is why I use NSIDC area to make my minimum predictions at the end of June every year. I should mention that NSIDC area is different from other area metrics because NSIDC uses the SSMI/S satellite which gets fooled by melt ponding. So SSMI/S-derived area in June (when melt ponding tends to peak) is really a good proxy for melt ponds which is the true skilled in-season predictor of final minimum extent and area.

Oh right. I def remember Eric. I couldn’t tell that was Dave in the very back.

From left to right... Bob (BaroclinicZone formerly ETauntonMA), Pickles (StillNofPike or something, lol), Diane (#NoPoles), Steve (Ginxsnewx), Scott (CoastalWx), Will (ORH_wxma), Kevin (DamageInTolland), Ray (behind Kevin, 40/70benchmark), Don (in front of Kevin, Roosta? formerly ARL_MAwx or something), Megan (stratuslove), Garth on far right (coldmiser)....I can't make out the other two in between Garth and Megan. Someone can chime in on them if they can tell.

Reducing the bible of snowstorms to such commonplace correspondence is blasphemy.

That's quite a punch the PV is taking at the end of the 12z EPS....didn't show that on the 00z run. We'll have to see if that is a trend that sticks. Would probably mean colder wx down the line in November vs previous forecasts.

You must've gotten hammered in the 2/25/11 event....also 4/1/11.

The Oct 2002 and 2003 snows both happened on the 23rd coincidentally.

Yeah it's way out there, but there's some potential for somethign wintry around 10/30-10/31....low probability of course this time of the year, but there's some very cold ar lurking and a good high is present on most current guidance. Fwiw, the Euro OP cuts the system to our west, so anything is possible at this range.

I mean, I do have Groveland around 80" on my map, but you are closer to 90" on the map. They should be expected to get a little less than you anyway.

Sounds a little low to me. But not too far off. I'd prob put you closer to mid/high 80s that winter, or possibly even cracking 90" if you are being a weenie about every squall. As we know, if the coop isn't a very meticulous snow observer, then it could easily be on the low side even if they are still following the minimal guidelines. Also you are west of them so you were prob on the W side of the CF in some events where they weren't.

I wasn't the one conveying certainty, you were. It could be a ratter, but I was asking where you got the extreme confidence form that it would be.

Gradient was a tad south in '70-'71....I think BDL had 57" that winter so he probably had in the low to mid 60s in Tolland.

Yep, all 3 were true in 2010-2011.

54.5" according to my map.

He's probably secretly terrified of an '07-'08 where Ray gets like 100" and he has 50". So he's trying to make the entire region a rat.....misery loves company as the old saying goes. But honestly, this could be good for everyone too. I don't see anything definitive at the moment....which is normal in late October.

How do you know it't going to be below normal snowfall?