ORH_wxman

Dude, your odds in NYC are pretty brutal in this setup. You want to be inland.

Actually some marginal wet snow over interior that run despite that way west initial ULL. Won't take much correction to get that better....

ULL too far west this run. Didn't bury it as much as the 00z run though.

Midlevels looked ok on the mean. Not super cold but I'd guess at minimum interior SNE NW of 95 and prob N of. PVD-HFD like is in pretty good shape on that look...but it's probably gonna change a bunch of times

GEFS have been trending a bit colder too. They are still warmer than the EPS but definitely a tick colder than previous runs.

And hope the GGEM and Ukie are off their rocker in burying the ULL too much. If we trend towards that then its game over.

Yep. Classic setup for valley to get shadowed. Deep layer easterly flow.

GFS was excellent for a good chunk of SNE imho. Maybe southeast zones and right on the coast have issues but it was plenty cold for snow for many. GGEM is burying the ULL way south first. That is no good. If models trend toward that then we're pretty much cooked. It will be a 36F Rainer.

Climo can pay us back in 100 years when we're all dead...

Yeah some. But keep in mind that was a system that looks like this on steroids. Some of the basics are similar. But if everything goes "right", this has a pretty high ceiling...esp interior.

Yep. All still possible. Could miss our whole forum still...but I'll say that last night and early this morning definitely increased the chances of a meaningful snowfall somewhere in New England.

Yes. 06z EPS would destroy the interior...esp east slopes.

Fwiw, 06z EPS cooled a nice tick. Only goes out to 144 so can't see beyond that...

There is definitely potential. Obvious OP runs like the 06z GFS show it but you can see it in the EPS probability maps. Marginal airmass means interior and elevated areas are favored. Still, we've got some issues to overcome...mainly making sure the timing is good, but also the ULL track itself...a few of these runs are looping the ULL up a bit too far west initially before it spins east...we eventually flip to snow on those but the initial surge is rain because of the westward track...it doesn't tap into the "cold" to our north and instead draws in a bunch of Atlantic air from the ESE. So in short, keep a skeptical view of this system but definitely worth tracking because the ceiling on this one is pretty high.

Scooter electrical bath?

Esp at 6-7 days out. No reason to expect much unless this shows a lot of potential inside of 5 days...and really inside of 4 days.

18z GFS got the interior with 6"+...tick that just a shade colder with some better deepening and we've got something bigger. Obviously this is still not an easy storm to get to track "correctly". Need a lot of things to go right.

Yeah that's pretty crazy. A little December '92-esque though better climo period for coast. Though I'm always hesitant to throw that storm around. It had far more close contours at h5. But same type of high setup on somewhat marginal airmasses, the fact they are both cutoffs, and that deep layer easterly flow.

EPS are still showing potential. All we can say at this time range. Wish it was a little colder but the EPS are colder than the OP run and further north.

It's got potential still but you don't want to bury that ULL like that. Again...as Walt said...this is all about timing. You need that ULL lifting up to the northeast under us at the same time we're getting the good confluence. If you mistime them, then it's a boring solution.

Euro doesn't look that good to me. It's ok. But it buried the ULL pretty hard and the confluence is not as good as GGEM.

If it happens, this storm will forever be known as "The GGEM Storm". Kind of like how 12/29/12 became "The RPM storm" Though in all honesty, GGEM solution does have some support. EPS are not far off. But GGEM seems to keep showing the perfect solution time after time despite the lead time.

Yeah starting to slow down the ULL a bit....we want it slower and a bit south of the GFS like the GGEM track...or some of the EPS. OP Euro was close too, but a a little too slow and digging for oil and it allows the best confluence to pass us by. Walt made a good point about timing....this is definitely all about timing the ULL approaching us in tandem with the best confluence in Quebec.

For those whole like winter, hope that split flow out west stays. Otherwise we're going full-2012. You can visualize how if we didn't have that split flow, those heights from Hawaii would be blasting the west coast and into the plains.

Yeah need a lot of stuff to go right. Interior elevated areas will be in most favored spot but gonna need the Synoptics to cooperate some and that's far from a lock.