ORH_wxman

ULL goes over like ORH instead of South coast.

Yeah I kind of LOL'd at him thinking the setup sucked for his 'hood. When you only need like 75 miles on a 5 day prog I'd like where I sit. GEFS solidly north of 12z. South trend is over on those...they had been trending south until this run.

Yeah this thing can still morph into a grotesque piece of garbage over Poughkeepsie or something....definitely possible.

Analogs are fine to discuss as long as people know why they are being discussed....problem is, too many people obsess over the snowfall and assume that it means the storm in question will produce similar amounts. Storms like Dec '92 are rare because of some of the details....like the lunar eclipse high tides plus the 12-24 hour stall. This one could produce prolific amounts of snow too if we managed to stall it a bit underneath us...prob not as much as '92, but you can get some special things when you have prolonged deep layer east flow (see Mar '13 which was vastly underpredicted in select areas)....some runs have come close to that. This won't ever match the tides of '92 though. And I agree with tip somewhat...if folks are too lazy to read into it more, then joke's on them.

Yeah they are in a good spot right now, but you are right the ULL did trend north too...still, this solution would work for a lot of SNE if we can actually hold the line on this type of solution.

Yeah that was kind of a weird run....ULL def trended north though which is not good for SNE....gotta keep that south of here.

ULL is north of the 00z but it's def more elongated E-W than 00z run....so it's colder in SNE at leats initially...we'll see what the next two panels do

Hedge high on QPF in the terrain-favored spots and hedge low in the valley shadows on this type of setup...I'd prob hedge higher in eastern areas too with that type of firehose. Even during the March 2013 firehose, models did pretty poorly on the QPF. Underestimated badly in those areas.

Yeah still tracking it over New England...been doing that for a few runs now.

Still looks pretty far north as it has been the whole time....though given I need an electron microscope to see the details, can't tell if it trended at all.

Yeah if we had an actual airmass, this would be pretty much locked in for big snows for a lot of the forum. But theres just enough with that polar high to make it work...just have less wiggle room and need more details to go right.

Looks like Ukie is 25-30 minutes on meteocentre.

I've tried that....I usually manually upload it, but it just keeps a static image. Not sure why. I tried uploaing it to an imagehosting site just now and directly linking too but that didn't work either....though if you click on it now it will animate using that method.

Oh well, that was supposed to animate, but this site always screws up my animated gifs these days and they don't work.

GEFS continue to tick south....they are still not as far south as the EPS though. You can see a more ENE track now though on the mean low center.

It was the first storm over 8 or 9" I saw since moving back to ORH in 1988 when I was 7. I experienced 4 consecutive winters without a double digit snowfall....ORH previously had not ever had even 3 consecutive winters without a double digit snowfall before that....or since. I timed it perfectly! But that storm was a true drought buster for me. Here's a pic of me (and my grandfather) on top of a snow pile in the driveway at my grandfathers house the day after it ended. We had about 35 inches there in Holden, MA.

Yeah I believe his contract didn't get renewed about 2-3 months later. I don't necessarily think that storm was the reason though.

Agreed....I don't think NE MA is in a bad spot either for temps being closer to that dry air feed from the polar high.Elevation will be very useful too obvious.

I saw it...just came out on WSI and it's a clown solution...wrapping up a super tight, wound-up ULL that goes over like NYC, up through SNE and into Maine. It was initially further south though out in the plains/midwest, so we're starting to see a convergence there.

Yeah the ULL definitely trended south....it's wobbling around though on the orientation of it, so it does spawn a secondary closer to the coast initially. But eventually it ends up further south than the 06z run....verbatim still a bit warm for most in SNE in the lowest 100mb.

I haven't seen much of a shift on the EPS in the past 36 hours...if anything it shifted west since yesterday at 12z....but the 12z EPS run had the high pretty far east compared to all its other runs. The more important trend is the low has trended east....on both the EPS and GEFS....GEFS have trended east more...the EPS have been fairly consistent. But even the EPS hae trended form a low position near ACY at 06z Sunday to about 75-100 miles offshore. The GEFS have trended from a low near Trenton NJ at 06z Sunday to south of LI now....north of the EPS still, but not nearly as far west of the EPS that it was.

The differences are even more stark in the OP runs at 06z....I showed them side by side below. Notice how much more ridging is bending back north of the ULL on the Euro....this is basically acting as a pseudo block. It forces the ULL more eastward with time underneath it. It will get resistance if it tries to lift north into that block so it takes the path of least resistance which is more eastward. The GFS doesn't have as much....also note how much further north the ULL is on the GFS.

Now we know who to blame when this trends into a turd for most of us. But....no guts, no glory. Anyways, all joking aside, the EPS have been remarkably consistent. GEFS have been pretty consistent too, but definitely have ticked south since 12/18z yesterday when they were bringing the ULL up into NW PA and right over SNE/CNE. Still, even with the south trend, differences remain between the EPS and the GEFS. EPS are bringing in the ULL at a lower latitude and also sliding it more ENE while the GEFS bring it in higher and also move it more NE....they swing it from central PA up to SE MA and into the gulf of Maine while the EPS move it from near the PA/MD line ENE to just south of LI to ACK. These are trends/tracks to keep in mind today and going forward. If you are in SNE, you really want to keep the ULL at the latitude of about Philly while it is still on land...it can swing more north once it;s moving offshore, but you don't want the ULL over, say, AVP (Scranton, PA) while it is still that far west. On the flip side, an AVP to SNE track of the ULL would work for NNE.

06z EPS is also coming in a touch colder than 00z but still pretty similar overall.