ORH_wxman

NAM is well south of 18z through 54 hours...and any other guidance. So that trend continues. Question is what happens later.

Agreed. We obviously need to stop the trend of the sling-shotting ULL northward once it reaches WV or so...I think that's well understood. But if that happens, then it is still very much a threat.

I think it's premature to call it over for SNE....particularly the interior elevated terrain.

Hubbdave gets kudos....aced this exam in under 12 hours. Lol. Guidance obviously "saw" something after 12z today that caused it to rotate the ULL north instead of ENE once it reached the Ohio valley. It could be wrong....but it's obviously what is causing the big move today. The ULL out to the west of that has actually been coming in pretty far south, so we can hope that starts to translate further east as we get closer. I agree that if 00z makes another big jump, then 12z is almost already out of the game. There's not a lot of margin for error on this system with this airmass. You couldn't expect this system to not move much at all when it was like 8-9 days out when we started tracking it.

I'd give the overnight suite and 12 tomorrow....we're still 4-5 days out. If it trends another solid tick N during those next two cycles, then it's probably lights out.

Pretty large bump northwest on the 18z EPS. ULL tracks over western MA now and the sfc low goes from NYC to scooters fanny. Easily the largest jump we've seen. Probably larger than the past 5 or 6 runs combined.

18z Euro looks zonked at 90h compared to 12z. Doesn't go out any further but that is probably close to game over for SNE if that verified. Though I want to be careful extrapolating too much since these ULLs like to wobble...the actual center of the ULL is slightly southwest of the 12z run but it's just much deeper and the confluence to the north looks a tad weaker so I don't really like the look...

Doesn't need to "cut" though to screw us. Only hug the coast up metfan's fanny with this airmass....and that's an entirely plausible solution. One thing that should keep some optimism alive is that despite some of these solutions, we've seen the ULL trend south when it is still out in the plains/Midwest early in the game before aggressively coming north late in the game...it's possible that late surge turns into a more ENE kick as we get closer to verification.

ULL goes over like ORH instead of South coast.

Yeah I kind of LOL'd at him thinking the setup sucked for his 'hood. When you only need like 75 miles on a 5 day prog I'd like where I sit. GEFS solidly north of 12z. South trend is over on those...they had been trending south until this run.

Yeah this thing can still morph into a grotesque piece of garbage over Poughkeepsie or something....definitely possible.

Analogs are fine to discuss as long as people know why they are being discussed....problem is, too many people obsess over the snowfall and assume that it means the storm in question will produce similar amounts. Storms like Dec '92 are rare because of some of the details....like the lunar eclipse high tides plus the 12-24 hour stall. This one could produce prolific amounts of snow too if we managed to stall it a bit underneath us...prob not as much as '92, but you can get some special things when you have prolonged deep layer east flow (see Mar '13 which was vastly underpredicted in select areas)....some runs have come close to that. This won't ever match the tides of '92 though. And I agree with tip somewhat...if folks are too lazy to read into it more, then joke's on them.

Yeah they are in a good spot right now, but you are right the ULL did trend north too...still, this solution would work for a lot of SNE if we can actually hold the line on this type of solution.

Yeah that was kind of a weird run....ULL def trended north though which is not good for SNE....gotta keep that south of here.

ULL is north of the 00z but it's def more elongated E-W than 00z run....so it's colder in SNE at leats initially...we'll see what the next two panels do

Hedge high on QPF in the terrain-favored spots and hedge low in the valley shadows on this type of setup...I'd prob hedge higher in eastern areas too with that type of firehose. Even during the March 2013 firehose, models did pretty poorly on the QPF. Underestimated badly in those areas.

Yeah still tracking it over New England...been doing that for a few runs now.

Still looks pretty far north as it has been the whole time....though given I need an electron microscope to see the details, can't tell if it trended at all.

Yeah if we had an actual airmass, this would be pretty much locked in for big snows for a lot of the forum. But theres just enough with that polar high to make it work...just have less wiggle room and need more details to go right.

Looks like Ukie is 25-30 minutes on meteocentre.

I've tried that....I usually manually upload it, but it just keeps a static image. Not sure why. I tried uploaing it to an imagehosting site just now and directly linking too but that didn't work either....though if you click on it now it will animate using that method.

Oh well, that was supposed to animate, but this site always screws up my animated gifs these days and they don't work.

GEFS continue to tick south....they are still not as far south as the EPS though. You can see a more ENE track now though on the mean low center.

It was the first storm over 8 or 9" I saw since moving back to ORH in 1988 when I was 7. I experienced 4 consecutive winters without a double digit snowfall....ORH previously had not ever had even 3 consecutive winters without a double digit snowfall before that....or since. I timed it perfectly! But that storm was a true drought buster for me. Here's a pic of me (and my grandfather) on top of a snow pile in the driveway at my grandfathers house the day after it ended. We had about 35 inches there in Holden, MA.

Yeah I believe his contract didn't get renewed about 2-3 months later. I don't necessarily think that storm was the reason though.