ORH_wxman

Hingham coop peaked at a 43 inch pack too.....and 26 consecutive days over a 30 inch pack.

Yeah sometimes...guess it depends on the pattern. I can think of many that stubbornly stayed to our south in the final 3-4 days of tracking it. But I agree I'd rather have a gulf origin system showing a whiff or scraper vs being over ALB at this stage.

It's usually because cutters can go through Michigan or worse....so if they trend 400 miles east it is still a rainstorm. We're usually not tracking storms 300 miles east of George's Bank (maybe occasionally, lol).

Yeah I don’t hate the look this morning. I’m just not that invested yet. It’s 6-7 days out. There are plenty of ensemble hits. Not a lot that go west and a lot of whiffs. Hoping for a bit of a NW trend isn’t the worst spot to be at this range.

Way too early for that. We won’t know something that specific until much closer.

Nice on the Ukie. It was one of the few models in the past decade that was getting harder and harder to find maps online...while every other model was getting easier. Ukie did look like a powder keg at 12z on its final frame. So it would probably be in the group with hits closer to the coast. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.

Most big OES events on the cape are enhanced by an IVT. CHH had over 20 inches in a feb 1993 norlun event that was juiced by OES. I do remember what I think was a pure OES event that gave them around 8” on the outer Cape in the early 1990s. I want to say 1991 but I’m a little fuzzier than usual on the date because it didn’t happen IMbY. I remember Harvey explaining it one night on 6pm news.

Ice age scare of then 1960s and 1970s.

I think ORH was -14 that February. Coldest month on record beating out Feb 1934.

Fwiw, the 18z EPS is a lot more robust at 144h...doesn’t go out any further but clearly more members were closer

A lot. Everyone remembers “the big 4” but they had plenty of smaller refreshers too 1/24.........5.1 1/25-27...24.6 1/30-31...2.0 2/2...........16.2 2/5...........0.8 2/7-9........23.1 2/10-11....1.2 2/12.........1.0 2/14-15....16.2 2/17.........0.6 2/19.........2.4 2/21-22....1.2 2/25-26....2.1 That’s 13 measurable events in about a month. BOS became the picnic tables for a month.

That’s kind of a midlevel magic run for E MA. If I was forecasting that like 24 hours out, it’s the type where I’d go a few inches more than the qpf might indicate.

The 11-15 got more weenie-ish again. Ebb and flow on that...general theme is there though for a much better longwave pattern.

Not a bad spot honestly at d7

EPS have something a bit more substantial than the OP but clearly still skewing wide right

Most politicians are egotistical frauds. But that doesn’t mean some don’t push the right solutions for some things... It doesn’t have to be good intentions that produces the best path forward. You know the old saying anyways, “the path to hell is paved with good intentions”.

Bring back the pony express?

Currently? Nat gas and oil are the big ones. Solar energy produces the majority electricity in the future scenarios. Edit: coal is still really big currently too. But declining.

Honestly we’re not that far off from green energy becoming significantly cheaper than fossil fuels. If you read the advances even in the last 5-10 years then you’ll see how it is accelerating. It could probably use a kick in the pants with some more R&D funding, but even without that it’s probably a decade or two away from really changing our energy grid. Aviation is a long ways off from losing fossil fuels due to energy density issues in flying something that heavy (we just don’t have the energy density available that matches jet fuel)....but for cars and the electric grid the change is probably going to be pretty quick.

Yeah there’s is a wealth of disinformation and conspiracy crap that comes with the honest reporting too. Usually articles that blast RCP 8.5 have another agenda too...I think it’s fine to criticize RCP 8.5 as unrealistic but it’s not an excuse to go into other conspiracies or use it as evidence that some other anti-science claim should be believed.

The 8.5 and the 2.6 are extreme goalposts scenarios so they are pretty useful in a statistical sense. But nobody should ever lead a headline with them when discussing new published literature IMHO. That’s kind of like leading a headline before a run-of-the-mill big snowstorm (say 8-14 inches) and claiming “this storm could drop 30 inches!!” because one ensemble member showed it...pure clickbait hype headline and probably will scare the shit out of a bunch of people unnecessarily. And from an advocacy standpoint, that kind of hype probably does more long-term damage to the credibility of the science and mitigation efforts than saying nothing at all. It’s kind of why I wish that there was a better medium to educate the public on the scientific literature rather than using mainstream media who themselves tend to be pretty ignorant of the literature...but there really isn’t unfortunately.

I work from home 3-4 days a week...eat that car emissions. I ain’t gonna feel one damned ounce of guilt if I fly for a vacation any time soon.

The ensembles spread is overwhelmingly skewed toward wide right rather than a cutter west. So for now, I’d agree that it’s mostly a hit vs a whiff right. But given the timeframe, you can’t rule out a cutter yet.

Only can see out to 144 but the GGEM has something brewing too. Honestly, we really don’t need to see further than that. It tells us what we need to know at this point. Multi-model support for a system next weekend, details TBD.

LOL I forgot about those commercials. “This is your brain....” ”This is your brain on drugs....any questions?”