ORH_wxman

Agreed....I don't think NE MA is in a bad spot either for temps being closer to that dry air feed from the polar high.Elevation will be very useful too obvious.

I saw it...just came out on WSI and it's a clown solution...wrapping up a super tight, wound-up ULL that goes over like NYC, up through SNE and into Maine. It was initially further south though out in the plains/midwest, so we're starting to see a convergence there.

Yeah the ULL definitely trended south....it's wobbling around though on the orientation of it, so it does spawn a secondary closer to the coast initially. But eventually it ends up further south than the 06z run....verbatim still a bit warm for most in SNE in the lowest 100mb.

I haven't seen much of a shift on the EPS in the past 36 hours...if anything it shifted west since yesterday at 12z....but the 12z EPS run had the high pretty far east compared to all its other runs. The more important trend is the low has trended east....on both the EPS and GEFS....GEFS have trended east more...the EPS have been fairly consistent. But even the EPS hae trended form a low position near ACY at 06z Sunday to about 75-100 miles offshore. The GEFS have trended from a low near Trenton NJ at 06z Sunday to south of LI now....north of the EPS still, but not nearly as far west of the EPS that it was.

The differences are even more stark in the OP runs at 06z....I showed them side by side below. Notice how much more ridging is bending back north of the ULL on the Euro....this is basically acting as a pseudo block. It forces the ULL more eastward with time underneath it. It will get resistance if it tries to lift north into that block so it takes the path of least resistance which is more eastward. The GFS doesn't have as much....also note how much further north the ULL is on the GFS.

Now we know who to blame when this trends into a turd for most of us. But....no guts, no glory. Anyways, all joking aside, the EPS have been remarkably consistent. GEFS have been pretty consistent too, but definitely have ticked south since 12/18z yesterday when they were bringing the ULL up into NW PA and right over SNE/CNE. Still, even with the south trend, differences remain between the EPS and the GEFS. EPS are bringing in the ULL at a lower latitude and also sliding it more ENE while the GEFS bring it in higher and also move it more NE....they swing it from central PA up to SE MA and into the gulf of Maine while the EPS move it from near the PA/MD line ENE to just south of LI to ACK. These are trends/tracks to keep in mind today and going forward. If you are in SNE, you really want to keep the ULL at the latitude of about Philly while it is still on land...it can swing more north once it;s moving offshore, but you don't want the ULL over, say, AVP (Scranton, PA) while it is still that far west. On the flip side, an AVP to SNE track of the ULL would work for NNE.

06z EPS is also coming in a touch colder than 00z but still pretty similar overall.

Nice firehose for SNE on the 00z Euro. That's actually a pasting near BOS too.

GEFS mean was already bringing the ULL in at a decently north trajectory and we didn't get any help. I agree it didn't change much from 18z mean, but we want that to trend toward the EPS. Ukie looked like crap though we don't get ensembles for it. OP Euro is actually looking pretty good track-wise here at 00z for interior SNE. Wish it was a little cooler but that's pretty irrelevant at this time frame.

Not all that impressed with the 00z suite so far. GFS was a good storm inland but it had a more progressive look to everything...which was probably a good thing on that run because the ULL initially was pretty far west at a higher latitude...almost sitting north of PIT. That's been the theme at 00z. ULL is too far north & west for my liking....still pending euro suite though.

This is a classic downslope look for the valley so I'd keep the skeptical glasses on for now...but things can change. Even a little bit of a difference in the flow or some PVA can spark midlevel stuff that could produce....but for now, I'd stay skeptical. I'm even staying skeptical in interior MA on east side of hills....I think I'd feel pretty good right now if I was in New Ipswich NH or something. But there's still quite a long ways to go that even they could get skunked. This thing could morph into some grotesque piece of garbage that tries to track into Poughkeepsie or something.

Well if you mean produce big precip then you're probably right. It's just probably rain there and not snow. It's precarious enough even in interior SNE.

Some areas did 7"+. But I think in central MA we did around 3-4" qpf. You really need a stall for things like that to happen. This one looks a little more progressive (which is saying a lot because this one is slow) but there's obviously plenty of time for it to change.

It was a horror show in the valley. Go east 20 miles into ORH hills or west 20 miles onto east slopes of Berks and it was anarchy.

EPS looked a little better to me than 12z. Below is the comparison (12z first and 18z second) You can see it in the high position

Basically what dec '92 did except a bit further south. Had the original sfc low tucked in over SE NJ but a secondary was spawning out southeast of the islands. With that high position though we prob know the interior will be a bit more backed than a model like the GFS says.

ORH obliterator. Might have to camp out on winter hill if that one verified.

In a few minutes, there will either be a lot of whining or too much excitement when the forum collectively weights the 18z GFS orders of magnitude more than its true importance.

I wasn't even on Eastern yet for that one. I did the blizzard of '05 on WWBB (Wright weather bulletin board for those who don't remember it)

Yep. Esp in this setup. Ensembles are going to be the way to go for now. You can't really worry about 1-2C in the column at these time leads. Or you can worry about them, but you scuslly have no idea how they are going to break. I'm mostly looking at the trend of that ULL track. We don't really want it getting north of philly when it's still out to the west over the Apps and OH/TN valley. Ray is doing the right thing in looking at the upper air there. In this scenario, ideal would be something like over the Delmarva or Philly at the most...any further north than that at that longitude is asking for trouble. It can gain some more latitude once further east and that is fine for SNE.

Wrong event. The one I was mentioning was 1/2-3/06.

Looks like El Niño. Jan '83 and Jan '98 come to mind. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0129.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1983/us0123.php Though I do recall a blue blitz in early January 2006 and that wasn't a Niño...similar puke look though http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2006/us0103.php

Shade warmer and west but still colder than OP. Not a huge trend but pretty much expected based on the OP run going west a bit.

That weird fujiwara interaction with the second shortwave early on really caused it to slingshot west...ULL ended up over PIT around 132h...we want that more like philly or the Delmarva. If we get that, then we'll see a significantly colder solution. That's what the 06z EPS did.