ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Ugh...it really shears it at the last second, so we don't get that nice little CCB finish like some other guidance had. It's still there, but kind of weakish on the Euro. Not sure I buy how quickly it shears at the end though. That vort looks pretty good at 66-72.
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Yeah trough is sharper on the 12z vs 06z run...that bowling ball won't get squashed as quickly.
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Ray will be snowing before Kevin does most likely. The 850/925 advection clearly shows that.
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You'd prob get a bit more on the Ukie...2m temps look like they lag too much considering what 925 looks like....it has parts of NE MA with like temps of 37F with a 925 of -4C....lol, that's not happening except maybe right along the shore. But the Ukie loves to do this out to like 495 for some reason.
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Yes, 00z was super flat...it's more amped than 00z. But it is still on the flat side of 12z guidance.
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12z Ukie is coming back more amped...which is no siurprise since it was really flat at 00z.
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GGEM is actually a bit more amped than Reggie...not very common to see that. It really hits CNE hard, but it even gets warning snows down to the pike region. 2-4" type event south of that.
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The soundings look good on GFS for Friday morning. Good saturation through SGZ. Best lift is actually like 550-600mb there...thats prob midlevel magic going on.
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Yeah you'd be close, but prob pick up a couple inches there. RGEM is kind of the "compromise" solution I was talking about with Kevin....in between some of the zonked solutions yesterday and the flatter ones overnight. It's not going to give anyone 18", but you could realistically see some low end warning snow amounts in an RGEM type evolution....esp over interior elevated areas.
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RGEM even smokes Scooter later on, lol
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Reggie gone wild
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Yes...that is the band most folks will want to focus on...if you are way up north like where Phin and powderfreak are, you probably hope some of the Zeta front end stuff hits you for best shot at snow....seems like the backside fronto-band snows are going to be more of a CNE/SNE deal if current trends hold.
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See above post...
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It did chew some of the northern precip extent up in NNE....though it was stronger with the CCB down south. Seems like the front side got slightly squished while the backside CCB got a bit better.
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GFS looks slightly more amped than 06z, but it's pretty similar overall. I think it's a bit snowier than the 06z....slightly better dynamics.
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Yeah it could be....models never seem to handle super fast flow very well. Esp when critical piece of energy are out over the N PAC or up in blackout land in the arctic where even satellite data gets distorted.
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The amped runs yesterday gave me more snow than the flatter stuff today. If you are way south in CT/RI then maybe the flatter ones give best chances of flakes and perhaps some light accumulations, but I think even you would want something more amped than the NAM because it will give a heavier burst before exiting....it doesn't need to be like the Euro yesterday, but something in between.
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I'd sell the NAM clown maps that show 6-8....prob more like 3-6"....still impressive for October no doubt. But this is definitely much weaker dynamics than we saw on yesterday's runs.
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Yeah, it's a crazy cold airmass lurking for this time of the year. Even though there's potential for higher amounts if this weren't flat, even 1-3" would be pretty amazing.
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Training camp is over and your metamorphosis is complete....we're deleting irrelevant banter. This is a storm threat thread.
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Yep...pretty weak sauce. But damn, that's cold at the end. Look at this sounding Friday morning.....
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12z NAM coming in flatter than 06z. Though the shortwave in MN at 48h looks a bit more potent, so maybe it can pop late.
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Yep....piggy has disappeared on guidance so fingers crossed that holds. Look more -PNA like Scott said but there's actually some weak ridging up in AK/EPO region. Weeklies look like they may cool down late month into early December with western CONUS ridging, but that is out in clown range.
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Still some time for it. Though this pattern has some things working against it too. Zeta makes landfall in about 36 hours....which means that in probably 24 hours, models will be able to handle it better. It should influence the downstream ridging/phasing potential. If it runs too far ahead of the bowling ball currently in the southwest, then it will likely produce a flatter solution, if it is closer, then we'll probably see a more amped solution.
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Yeah this is getting pinched pretty quickly...I mentioned yesterday that I was kind of worried about a sheared storm more than one that was too amped. The pattern is screaming. A bit more of a trend and this goes into a non-event....maybe a few flakes or coating.
