ORH_wxman

If lift is good, it'll be 33F down to valleys too...and prob like 31-32F at elevation. It's pretty classic for this time of the year...the models will overestimate the sfc temp in heavier snow and underestimate it when its really light. Folks can think about it like this: 1. If it's "worth" tracking....i.e. a heavier event, then it's probably going to snow and accumulate down to the lower elevations 2. If it stays weak and light, it's probably white rain for most with light accumulations at elevation

I don't see 28F unless it cools more. You typically want at least like -3C or -4C or so at 925mb this time of the year. If it wrapped up into a more of a CCB, then it's possible it could transition to that in the 2nd half of the event, but I'm doubtful. I'd expect paste....assuming this happens. It could still crap out on us.

Yeah it’s the classic “precip hanging back longer than models show” type look. It’s trying to focus the heaviest stuff on the WAA fronto, but there’s pretty solid dynamic support behind that with the vigorous vortmax. It has the look of some narrow stripe getting hit pretty good that gets both the WAA fronto and then the attempted CCB hanging back....time of the year will be a limiting factor of course. But a warning stripe wouldn’t surprise me.

06z Euro has a pretty nice look as well...that's a little critter at H5. Could be a nice stripe of moderate to heavy snow to the north of that vort.

That’s some nice fronto on the euro.

18z euro coming north again. Looking snowier for Friday night.

Euro coming back north for 4/17-18...12z GFS was already there, but now Euro trying to bring the precip shield into CT/RI. .

We probably had some 50+ up on the south facing hillside here. But it never ramped up after about 2-3pm. I was expecting a pretty big finale given the core of the LLJ was to pass around 21z. I’m guessing it was slightly narrower and SE of model guidance. Or maybe just narrower. That corridor in SE MA got smoked. It was pretty easy to see on the radial velocity loop.

Got power back. Hopefully it doesn’t go out again.

Lol we just lost power. Probably haven’t gusted past 30mph in the last 45 minutes. How in the hell did we lose power now of all times?

Matches up very well with the Doppler radar radial velocities.

Power outage map shows where that zone of highest winds was

Totally went nearly calm here the past 30 min. Escaped with power still on. I thought the 4-6pm timeframe would be worse but it looks like the core of the LLJ passed a little further SE. Still a pretty solid event. A lot of ASOS stations cleared 50 knots in MA. Too bad we lost MQE before the peak.

The CT stations all look pretty meh the past hour.

Getting a bit worried here...really starting to crank and the woods behind my house are to the south....those tall trees would want to fall right towards the house in a southerly wind event.

Looks like for MA so far, the HWW criteria were hit at: MQE (61 kts) OWD (54 kts) ACK (53 kts) BOS (51 kts) ORH (50 kts) GHG (50 kts) Peak should be in the next 2 hours or so.

Of course MQE doesn't report this hour for ASOS.

You might all of the sudden go from meh to ripping around 5-6pm there. You get 90 knots just off the deck there later. We'll see how much mixes down.

Wow, OWD with 54 kts. Really good for that dump.

KTAN now up to 43 kts @Baroclinic Zone KBOS 51 kts

Yeah the Davis on Blue Hill is outperforming the ASOS by like 15mph on gusts....so there may be something wonky going on with it.

MQE gusting to 61 knots on ASOS....70mph Davis just gusted to 87. (!!)

Yeah, the wind has a good chance of being worse in this one but no foliage really helps with the outages. That said, there will still probably be plenty of them.

Oct 2017 was worse here than any of those others ones.

3-4pm is your peak on the HRRR....95 knots at 850.