ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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The 18z ncep suite was def north. We’ll see if that sticks or not. Seems like we’ve been oscillating quite a lot from run to run.
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Yeah 20% for 6” at ORH is pretty big this far out in late April.
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Almost every model run today has had that. Even the northern NAM there. Further south runs have a bigger impact but it’s telling that even the northern runs are trying for it. Something to track at least.
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Pretty far north this run....that's a C NH to western Maine special.
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Yeah we want to see a nice re-intensification near or just S of ACK when that ULL pinwheels into place. I think the WCB stuff is going to end up too warm here...but the CCB has a chance if it can be organized well....get things saturated into the 600mb range where we have -12C temps and get the lift in that zone too.
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Congrats Katahdin.
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After getting 8-10"+ last friday night and probably 3-5" today...and then another huge threat later next week.
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Somewhere in S Maine is in the sweet spot to get both the WCB and CCB snows....probably the typical hills near Sebago lakes region given the time of year. Bigger threat down in MA is definitely the CCB at the end which could surprise later on Monday/Monday night....though the WCB is marginal for ORH county possibly...doesn't have to tick much colder to be a full thrashing there.
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Someone's getting croaked on this look
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Euro definitely showing that sig too for a nice deformation/CCB Monday evening. Again, something to watch for SNE even if the front end stuff is mostly up in NH.
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Every model like the Kanc...lol....except maybe the NAM jacks SE NH into SNE...but it still hits the Kanc well. Monads look pretty good on most runs too.
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I'm guessing he's not going to have to worry much about other hikers in the middle of a 31F paste bomb in the monadnocks.
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This is what we have to watch for Monday night....this is the GGEM
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Gotta watch that CCB area on Monday evening too....they are often undermodeled...it's actually what gave a lot of N ORH county their snow in the last system....I remember early Sat morning there was like an inch or so up near Hubbdave and then that CCB ML magic stuff gave him another 3" or so. That was kind of weak too....this one appears to be a bit stronger with the CCB, albeit still weaker than the WCB lift.
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I posted it just for you....even you get a slushy inch while Ray is doing naked snow angels.
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Even kuchera maps are pretty bullish.... The key is those rates...and obviously tracking the midlevels a bit further SE this run.
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NAM hits MA pretty good too this run...and most of SNE with the CCB later in the storm.
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ORH on 4/28/87 in the 3-5pm period....that's how it's done. METAR KORH 281900Z 04006KT 1/16SM SN FG OVC001 00/M01 A2995 RMK / SNOINCR 1/1/4 SLP149 P0012 T00001006 50007 METAR KORH 282000Z 05008KT 1/16SM +SN FG OVC001 00/M01 A2992 RMK / SNOINCR 1/2/5MYL SA 1952SA 1945 E60 BKN 45 77/39/2209/M PK WND 15 000 SLP138 P0014 T00001006 50012 METAR KORH 282100Z 05008KT 1/16SM +SN FG OVC001 00/M01 A2989 RMK 0 /72045 90409 SNOINCR 3/6/9 SLP132 P0019 T00001006
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You may get some accumulation. If this tickles back S at all then ORH county could get croaked.
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Stay conservative for now. No need to start going crazy until we’re inside 48 hours. Need big dynamics this time of year to produce advisory/warning snowfall.
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Double negative. “-1.9 below normal” actually means +1.9. That’s what dendrite was ribbing you for the other night. So I made the joke just now about him throwing his computer against the chicken coop. Tehnically the correct way is to say there’s a -1.9 departure or we are 1.9 below normal.
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Dendrite just smashed his computer over the chicken coop.
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He is addicted to clown maps.
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Yeah that would filter in the BL cold pretty quickly once the CCB got cranking....you can see it at 925mb. Just funnels right down into the thing.
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Kevin has become fully addicted to clown maps.
