ORH_wxman

Yeah part 2 was the source of most of the snow in all the previous runs....there's a little bit of part 1 snow way up north on more recent runs, but we really want part 2 to crank to give some legit heavy snow....that CAA you talk about also enhances the frontogensis which would drive that heavier snow.

Yeah that's where their snow will come from....unlike a couple days ago when they were getting the heavy stuff from part 2 on some of those runs. Part 2 is getting shredded and if it produces, it will likely only be for SNE and maybe southern CNE.

Done.

RGEM was maybe marginally better than 06z, not the more noticeable jump that the NAM had. Maybe an inch or so for elevated interior SNE....2-4/3-5 for areas like Mitch/N Berks.

No, it would start off pretty wet even if it does cool to the upper 20s. But it might not ever get that cold either. You might only make it to like 31 or so....assuming we even have a period of steady snow.

Yeah there might be, esp in higher terrain. I could see ORH county having some flash freeze issues if we have steady snow and 28-30F.

Super cold stuff Friday morning...it has temps in the upper 20s here at 15z Friday...so even steady light snow is going to stick in that scenario.

The southern bowling ball was not as shredded this run as it gained latitude....so definitely an improvement, even if the overall result is still meh. Looks like an inch or two for many though over the interior.

Yeah this one was always a bit precarious with the potential to get shredded. I had replied to Ray two days ago that I was more concerned with that than a zonked system trying to run into the Hudson Valley. That said, this could easily come back enough to produce some significant winter sensible wx conditions. We'll just have to see if the ULL can gain some latitude without getting shredded too quickly. Obviously yesterday's guidance was allowing this more than overnight.

FYI, the NAO turned strongly negative in the last 10 days of Nov 2010 and then broke during the 1/12/11 storm. We sustained another 3 weeks of winter after that with a largely favorable Pacific. The NAO did form another weakish block for about a week leading into the 1/26-27/11 event and then broke positive for good IIRC.

Those 6z runs were ugly....we're gonna need a bounce back on 12z or it's probably not much snow out of this one.

This one was more like 3.5-4 days out. Ray started it Monday morning (though we added previous posts to it from the main October thread so it looks like it was started on Sunday) Anyways. This is still a threat for a few inches.

Yeah you get prob 4 or 5 inches this run.

CCB/fronto stuff looks a little more robust. Still not quite what I’d want to see for widespread amounts over 5”, but a good trend. Just need that southern stream vortmax/shortwave to maintain a hair longer. It did better on this run, but we want to see that cyclonic curl in the shortwave when it is at about the latitude of ACK or thereabouts.

18z euro coming in a little more amped than 12z.

If there was a 69h panel I’m sure it would look good. I didn’t see 72 but I’m sure it would show snow over SNE.

Yeah luckily the onslaught ended when it did. We were starting to worry. Incoherent posts at 4am of 03z SREF members and eventually even the old CRAS model made an appearance. LOL....all joking aside, at least in October, it doesn't feel like it hurts as much to miss an event. Of course we all still want it, but we know how anomalous it is and alo there's the entire winter still too look forward to. I'd still watch that lead Zeta shortwave though up in NNE. It's possible you get a few inches from that even if the fronto stuff misses to the south.

Powderfreak during the 2015 run started unraveling pretty badly....he started with models like the GGEM but by the 3rd or 4th event that was giving Boston 20", he was down to randomly posting a single ARW SREF member and talking about how great it was for BTV/N VT. You could just picture him with a bottle of scotch looking for consolation and wondering how Boston turned into Stowe. I do think there is still room for some big changes in this one. There's still some reasonable ensemble spread. But I'd think we'd want to see it start happening by tonight or tomorrow morning if there's going to be a big move.

I don't have really detailed maps but it did look like the EPS were a little more robust than the OP run.

Yep....for ORH it was 5/18/02 to 10/23/02.

Yeah like at 66-72, I was expecting a pretty big finishing CCB over SNE on the next frame and then it got crunched and we just get light snows. Either way, that was a positive trend from 06z at least.

Ugh...it really shears it at the last second, so we don't get that nice little CCB finish like some other guidance had. It's still there, but kind of weakish on the Euro. Not sure I buy how quickly it shears at the end though. That vort looks pretty good at 66-72.

Yeah trough is sharper on the 12z vs 06z run...that bowling ball won't get squashed as quickly.

Ray will be snowing before Kevin does most likely. The 850/925 advection clearly shows that.

You'd prob get a bit more on the Ukie...2m temps look like they lag too much considering what 925 looks like....it has parts of NE MA with like temps of 37F with a 925 of -4C....lol, that's not happening except maybe right along the shore. But the Ukie loves to do this out to like 495 for some reason.