ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah the terrain there looks ideal...it's got that "crescent" shape to funnel the air right in and up.....
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That area is such a weenie spot....too bad we don't have consistent obs up there. They must get destroyed with upslope too that goes unrecorded (also terrible radar coverage there).
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Spring 2020 New England Banter & Random Obs
ORH_wxman replied to CapturedNature's topic in New England
Had a pair of pileated woodpeckers yesterday out back in the woods. Unfortunately all I could get is a couple blurry Ginxy cell phone pics of one of them....still pretty cool though. Love those birds.
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You have a decent chance to see some flakes after 10pm tonight. Then you may have another chance with snow showers tomorrow.
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Well if you actually bought it...maybe. I wasn't buying it until we were inside 48 hours....which we never really got. I figured maybe some light accums were possible...like coating to an inch. Still could happen in higher terrain in SNE. But anything meaningful doesn't look very plausible outside of the higher terrain of CNE/NNE.
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This has turned into weak sauce. Don't think there will be much accumulation for anyone below 1500' or 2k.
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Euro caved. Writing was on the wall though when other guidance was trending SE. Still could see a burst though across parts of SNE.
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Nah it was long over by then. I’m not sure what event Dr Dews was thinking of but maybe 4/25/02. There were some snow late evening but it was after 10pm I think.
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Just go all-in on the GFS....ok, it wouldn't be 6"+ there, but it could be 4".
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It was during the morning that it snowed.
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It all depends on just how quickly the CCB pops....even in an event like May 18, 2002, it didn't snow very long. The rates did pop big time though for a couple hours...and that's key. It was going at like 0.20" per hour in the bucket and that dynamically cools the BL pretty quickly. 0.08 per hour type stuff isn't gonna get it done for accumulation.
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The risk is definitely taking too long to develop the good conveyor.
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Another tick SE...gets you into accumulating snow now. Just gotta keep up the act another couple runs and you'll get your 2-4"
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GGEM caved....way SE now. It's pretty weak too....nothing like the GFS.
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GFS is probably the perfect solution for SNE just off the coast....it is winding up the ML circulations very quickly and really going to town early enough to draw in that CCB cold.
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Hangs back a better CCB....that's what many will want for snow if you don't have big elevation.
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NAM still pretty flat...does have a nice burst though over interior MA/CT/NW RI that would probably give a couple of sloppy inches.
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Need something like the GFS which wraps up the storm much quicker. Otherwise sell the accumulations below 2k and just expect some flakes...rare in itself in May but not historic.
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It's all about getting that CCB going....it taps really cold air once it does but you need to get that circulation going otherwise the low levels will stay too warm.
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Euro def came SE.
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Euro still locked in tracking over E MA. Chickens to Maine jack.
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Yeah that radar is bark worse than bite and it’s a bit shredded. Won’t be like what euro was showing yesterday and prior. If it somehow does verify, then the euro shit the bed inside of 12 hours today, lol.
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Euro was too far NW...was showing that CCB slug several runs in a row
