ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Euro caved. Writing was on the wall though when other guidance was trending SE. Still could see a burst though across parts of SNE.
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Nah it was long over by then. I’m not sure what event Dr Dews was thinking of but maybe 4/25/02. There were some snow late evening but it was after 10pm I think.
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Just go all-in on the GFS....ok, it wouldn't be 6"+ there, but it could be 4".
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It was during the morning that it snowed.
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It all depends on just how quickly the CCB pops....even in an event like May 18, 2002, it didn't snow very long. The rates did pop big time though for a couple hours...and that's key. It was going at like 0.20" per hour in the bucket and that dynamically cools the BL pretty quickly. 0.08 per hour type stuff isn't gonna get it done for accumulation.
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The risk is definitely taking too long to develop the good conveyor.
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Another tick SE...gets you into accumulating snow now. Just gotta keep up the act another couple runs and you'll get your 2-4"
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GGEM caved....way SE now. It's pretty weak too....nothing like the GFS.
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GFS is probably the perfect solution for SNE just off the coast....it is winding up the ML circulations very quickly and really going to town early enough to draw in that CCB cold.
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Hangs back a better CCB....that's what many will want for snow if you don't have big elevation.
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NAM still pretty flat...does have a nice burst though over interior MA/CT/NW RI that would probably give a couple of sloppy inches.
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Need something like the GFS which wraps up the storm much quicker. Otherwise sell the accumulations below 2k and just expect some flakes...rare in itself in May but not historic.
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It's all about getting that CCB going....it taps really cold air once it does but you need to get that circulation going otherwise the low levels will stay too warm.
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Euro def came SE.
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Euro still locked in tracking over E MA. Chickens to Maine jack.
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Yeah that radar is bark worse than bite and it’s a bit shredded. Won’t be like what euro was showing yesterday and prior. If it somehow does verify, then the euro shit the bed inside of 12 hours today, lol.
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Euro was too far NW...was showing that CCB slug several runs in a row
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30 miles SE or NW makes a huge difference. Don’t get married yet. Euro is king but it’s been wobbling a little too. It actually quietly shit the bed in tonight’s system inside of 36 hours.
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Sorry guys. Ran the 18z NAM out of my basement. It’ll go back on 00z.
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Decent chance for flakes during Saturday even if you don't get them from the main system....the instability under the ULL is going to produce a lot of convective showers that are probably going to be graupel/straight snow. Esp any heavier ones.
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Today went about 30 miles SE at the last second. Still disagreement on this one. I'd favor CNE/NNE right now, but nothing is set in stone.
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May '77 was prob once in 100-200 year event...this one couldn't match it even if it took the perfect track. It's not quite the type of upper air situation May 77 was with the slower moving (but rapidly intensifying) cutoff. The cold shot though is pretty historic.
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Chicken choker on the Euro
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I'm predicting a gradual transition from mid spring to late spring by early June
