ORH_wxman

You probably missed a skunking by 1 year....March 2006 was a trace in ORH and the one system that narrowly missed was a south of the pike system.

Steady snow falling here with maybe 0.3-0.4” down. Looks like one last burst to come through on radar.

That bet I made with Kevin is gonna be the easiest free tab I’ve ever won. Lot of cold shots coming up despite the warm end of week. Not gonna even sniff top 3.

One of the issues with leaf out monitoring is there is not a universal definition of what constitutes full leaf out. I’ve seen people claim that when the first leaf structures are visible bursting out of the buds. Another is the leaf is out of the BUF but it’s clearly not full sized yet. And other times I’ve seen it as defined when the leaf is out and at or close to mature size. This is true in the literature too. You can find different definitions.

Very open views there....esp up in the Midland to Lubbock area and you can extend it into Panhandle area around Amarillo. Once you get into that southern zone, it can be a bit hilly....like from San Angelo southwest toward Fort Stockton.

I don’t see that at all with that Scooter high to start the week and then possible another traversing north of us later in the week. If anything, I see large diurnal swings on days like Monday and Tuesday where the lows might be below normal.

You’re right. I was looking at 36.7 for 2019. Not the mean. Departure was -1.2 so that’s 37.9. (37.8 if there’s a rounding figure in there) Still, +7.8 to +7.9 is gonna be nearly impossible with the dent that gets put in next week.

Need 45.7 to get 3rd place at BDL. That’s +9.

I don’t think you’ll get through to Kevin on the math/statistics of it. How about this...friendly wager Kevin...if we finish top 3 at BDL (I assume this is what you are using since ORH and BOS do not have 2012 as their warmest), I’ll pick up your tab at next GTG we both attend. If not, you pick up mine.

Probably because of mathematics? I don’t think you actually understand how hard it is to maintain +10 or something close to it. We barely just achieved that in the first 10 days with some epic torch days. We’re gonna be pretty meh for a large chunk of this weekend and next week...that’s gonna erode the departures back and then it gets harder to make them up the deeper you get into the month.

I mean, I get that it’s a torch month...but it’s not 2012 and probably won’t be even close. Something like a +6 like 2016 would actually not quite make the top 10.

Wait, you actually still believe this? I figured you would’ve dropped the comparison by now since it’s becoming even less likely mathematically.

Ides of March have been showing up the past couple runs. Good scooter high sprawling in from the Canadian parties on that one.

Beware the ides of March

The parts we can’t forecast are due to atmospheric chaos in a complex system. There is only so much that can be accurately measured and thus predicted. Predicting zero snow for like 6 weeks is nothing more than guessing.

You don’t even believe what you preach, lol. Otherwise you wouldn’t have even mentioned a snow possibility.

This the route you would take if you are anti-science.

1/7 kind of sucked. That was the storm where the cranberry bogs got 4"....but it could have been a really big event. Little nuke that actually trackd basically over the benchmark.

Well looks like the 3/6-3/8 window is going to fail, but the threat definitely was there. 3/11-3/12 is still there...that's next up on the docket to fail. The potential of 3/11-12 isn't as high as 3/6-7 was though.

March 1946 is actually warmer for most of SNE east of the CT River than 2012 was as hard as that is to believe. ORH also had 1945 warmer. But all of that is a moot point. We're not going +10 this month...anyone who thought we were getting close to that kind of month was wishcasting or just doesn't know climo very well. I could see something like 2016 happening...that was a +5 or +6 March...that would sneak us into a top 15 ranking.

3/12 on the Euro is a good example of well-timed....there's a brief cold sot behind the 3/10-11 system and another shortwave on its heels runs into that cold....I doubt it stays that way on guidance, but there is nothing inherently wrong with the solution...it's just that it's kind of a tedious setup so it's likely to mess up somewhere.

Yeah just look at '97....that was a blue bomb (albeit historic and extreme) surrounded by 60F tshirt weather....there wasn't anything large scale in the hemispheric long wave pattern that drove that to happen like, say, April 1982 when we were in the midst of a "February in April" type pattern with -10 to -15C sitting over us on the eve of the event with the entire northenr half of the CONUS well below 0C at 850. In '97 I was hitting golf balls at the driving range the day before in short sleeves and even overheard a couple dudes laughing about the 6-10" forecast for the next day not believing it....they were right to be skeptical, just in the wrong direction, haha. But as you said....perfectly timed bowling ball that went nuts.

Yeah looks fairly warm with no arctic shots and a decent amoutn fo zonal flow....but nothing like 2012....there will probably be a couple of snow threats mixed in though due to the extreme cold still lurking in central Canada that makes a run at side swiping us every now and then. Now whether they pan out or not is another question, lol.

Hey ya'll lets take this to banter....I know it's boring, but this should still be a wx thread.

Lol...pretty marginal. But I suppose.