ORH_wxman

Yeah I'm done discussing CC for now....back to the "threat".

Right, it's about "net effect"....so on average, what do we see? We see warmer heat waves. We see "less cold" cold snaps. Heavier precip? (at least on the east coast) The PJ has in the mean retreated slightly north, but not evenly....where we are it hasn't retreated much....mostly due to the the amplified trend over the EPO regions....that has a downstream effect. so if CC is making the heights rise faster over the EPO region....it will mean that on average, heights might not rise much downstream of that over central North America and into our area. There have been papers that argued we will see a lot more "blocky" winters due to reduced sea ice....those have been challenged somewhat...and I suspect with the lack of blocking recently, they will be challenged more.

Yeah I would keep snow in the forecast....but not be hyping a major storm. The IVT scenario is becoming more realistic. But you would obviously want to hold off on accumulations until we're much closer on a scenario like that.

Climate change is definitely happening, but I'd never attribute a winter like this to it....ok, maybe a small percentage (I dunno, 10%?).....the rest is year to year variance. It dwarfs the CC signal....that is empirically not arguable. I'm not talking butterfly effect either...using that, you can attribute climate change to any event you want, because technically everything is "connected"....you can do the same for someone passing gas in their basement. I'm speaking solely "net effect".....CC may have caused a torch, but it also may have caused the 27" blizzard in March 2018.....the net effect is what matters.

It's going to be a possibility if we keep this look at H5 which seemingly hasn't changed in 48 hours...you can't track a deep trough underneath without that occurring somewhere north and northwest of it.

There is likely to be a broader area of light snow from the IVT if this doesn't come back....that trough is still going south of LI, so it wouldn't be that surprising to see a lot of C-2" totals. Not very exciting, but it's on the table....just so that people aren't expecting sunny skies and then say "I thought the snow was gonna miss us!!11!!!"....

It didn't look great yesterday....but ensemble guidance is typically still going to be more accurate at d4-5 than OP runs. That said, there was a clear split in the ensemble guidance...and the trend has been toward the more eastern members. It's usually a red flag when we can't get one single OP run from at least one decent model to give a big hit....I've seen it not happen and then it trends big toward a western ensemble guidance...but it's pretty rare.

This one’s cooked I think for anything other than nuisance snows. Never really made it inside 5 days though for big impact solutions.

And then the cutoff at the end of January trended about 600 miles at day 4-5

Most of SNE gets 1-2”. Though lower elevation coastline may struggle to accumulate.

That's a bummer...I'd be real interested to see if they changed anything. The past few days heavily suggest that they have. Though I do remember a brief period last year when they seemed to be better before resuming their terrible readings...so I'm gonna give it another 10 days or so.

I think we need to at least hold serve tonight....if it trends notably worse, I'm not sure it's going to come back. We're in the 96 hour timeframe tonight. NAM is definitely teeing it up at 84 hours...more than other guidance. But it's the NAM.

It's still 4.5 days out...so it's not uncommon to see this. They should converge pretty quickly in the next 24-36 hours.

EPS are a bit better than 06z....but not quite as good as the 00z run.

Northern stream digs more this run, but the ridge to the west rolls over the top and affects the ability to phase the southern stream....the downstream ridging ahead of the system is blunted because of that. We get spacing issues.

Sure it could be overcome...but it's not something that's a good development. It's the fast flow up north which is doing it. If the northern stream keeps trending deeper, then it will work....but that's just another thing we need now unless the ridge goes back to not folding over as much.

Euro is having that ridge "rollover" issue too...it's preventing a much better northern stream this run from bringing us a big event.

Yes...I'll give it another 24 hours or so to see if those earlier trend manifest themselves more positively in the sensible wx department or if this is just going to be a case of another decent synoptic setup being ruined by some nuance in the flow.

Ukie is a whiff for most...well maybe some nuisance snows of 1-4 inches in southern areas of CT/RI and SE MA...blizzard for Jimmy though on the Cape....top of the ridge actually folds over the top in Ontario and sort of squishes this east at the last second. I was pretty sure it was going to be a huge hit at 102-108 hours...lol. That said, I was actually more encouraged with that run than the 00z.

Ukie is looking pretty good through 84...it has a deeper northern stream with more amped ridge and the southern stream is slower too compared to 00z.

Well it's not really a whiff for SE MA....probably several inches of snow.

Yeah I wasn't writing it off at this time lead...that's for the weenies in here to do....but I'd rather see that ridge not trend flatter. "Trend" might be the wrong word here since it had been actually trending more amped for several runs before regressing a bit for one run here....one run does not a trend make....but we sometimes use the word interchangeably for dprog/dt. Southern vort conserved better and was slower, which is a good thing. I agree with you that there is certainly room for this to end up as a very high impact event....it doesn;t have to miss east. We have some classic features such as a climatologically favored ridge placement and the northern vort trying to dive in and capture that southern entity...those are features that many higher end events had.

12z GFS is a bit less impressive with the northern stream....ridge is slightly flatter out west. Not what you want to see. The southern stream is stronger/slower, but it won't be enough to offset the former trend.

Agreed that a steeper angle of descent from the northern stream will definitely help with southern stream phasing. I don't care too much how it is achieved, whether it's that or the southern stream trending more robust and slowing down a bit....but we very likely need that phase to happen if we want something higher end.

I want to see a trend of more southern stream involvement at 12z...it doesn't have to be a monster hit verbatim, but would like to see that trend of reeling in the southern vort....the phase is how we get it done for something big, otherwise we're looking at nuisance snows most likely....maybe a moderate event if lucky.