ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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It’s the interaction with the Canada shortwave that seems to be driving the colder vs milder solutions. When our main shortwave starts partially phasing with the Canada one, everything end up north and warmer. When it interacts less, we stay colder and south. It’s been going back and forth on the idea for a couple days.
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Yeah it looks more like a front ender on recent guidance flipping to rain after a few inches. Could trend back the other way though. We’ll see.
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It’ll prob flip to rain but not before 2-5” of paste. Unless it trends a lot warmer.
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Congrats. Back to back jacks for the chickens.
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Much better shortwave look on the 00z runs. But it’s also a little warmer so less snow for CT/RI and not much wiggle room for ORH/pike region. Really close though. I’d probably favor the chickens right now for the jackpot though.
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You are right that less of the forum sees advisory or better snowfall than the previous run...so in that sense it is less impressive. But dynamically this run was very pretty to look at...but it was compact.
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It was south but more compact too. I actually thought dynamically it was a lot more impressive. Big time CCB sig. That would be a narrow but big shellacking for SE MA and N RI. I doubt it verifies but I just wanted to note the differences in the runs.
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18z Euro back to kind of a weak sauce look. It’s quite subtle aloft but it matters a lot for the sfc. When the base of the wave isn’t as kinked in the flow, it keeps everything more diffuse and weaker. Still accumulating snow but that’s generally sub-warning look.
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Good shot at shovelable. Hard to say whether it’s warning criteria yet. I feel like there’s a decent chance at a stripe somewhere. N SNE/S CNE is as good a spot as any for it on this setup.
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Put the text group in “do not disturb” mode. I don’t even notice. All my other texts buzz but that group doesn’t. Anyways, back on topic. Seems like the GFS is the only model that is keeping the bulk of the dynamics south offshore. Probably not a bad spot for models to be if you’re hoping for something in SNE/CNE.
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Sharpened up H5 a little bit again....I think in that scenario we might see a pretty decent stripe of heavy snow. Of course, this could revert back again, but I think this type of look would probably allow for a few hours of 1/4 mile nickels at 31-32F...
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Not much...maybe an inch or two? Could change of course. SE MA is in a tough spot for bigger amounts given the retreating high.
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Paste...even in the hills. Maybe not once you get up into Mitch's hood or other elevations over 2k. It will stick to pavement if it comes down hard enough. Rates always trump temps when it comes to stickage. We'll see how the rates look as we get closer, but the more open wave idea would make me a little bit skeptical of big rates. However, the Euro did look a little healthier today aloft, so we cannot rule out a nice period of heavy snow if that continues.
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Euro is mostly an advisory for SNE NW of I-95 (including CT/RI)...prob some low end warning amounts from ORH county to W MA and into S/C NH and S/C VT.
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Ukie was also a bit healthier looking. Still a bit warm for a lot of SNE (though cooler than previous runs), but it hammered ORH county and W MA/NW CT and into NH.
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Yeah agreed. These are more of the type of event where if you leave the 4-5 inches of paste on your car when you wake up, by 12pm, it's slumping off your hood and by 3pm your driveway is melted out and completely dry with only shaded parts of the lawn still snow covered.....versus getting smoked by 17" and maybe actually dealing with one semi-cold CAA day afterward.
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Yeah it was a tight squeeze for sure...12z Euro yesterday plus a few other stray runs did manage to get H5 to kink enough to create a pretty nice ML circulation....but we've seen it revert back to more open wave status overnight and today.
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Should be a nice late afternoon/evening...I'm hoping anyway. Trying to do some shrimp on the BBQ later. It's all a dream come tomorrow.
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Ahh, ok...good to hear those were included....the only one missing then would have been 12/23/97.
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Yeah I don't mean to say that we're gonna get skunked...I just think this is trending more toward an advisory type snowfall with maybe a stripe of low end warning based on how the upper air has trended a bit more open and progressive....it's possible it ticks back a little deeper, but for now, I'd hedge weaker. Weaker also brings the BL more into play as well for the lowlands.
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There is likely to be some snow but it’s unlikely to be a big storm as everything trends weaker.
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Weak sauce last night on most runs. Don’t get invested in this one.
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Get it another 24 hours closer and it becomes pretty legit.
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Yes. With that high where it is.
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18z Euro looking quite ominous at 90 hours. Still gonna be a tight squeeze though with that high retreating.
