ORH_wxman

Hopefully it looks more like the 06z GFS at the end. Split flow with very poleward PNA ridge. Keeps central/eastern Canada and even down into NE in the icebox.

PNA ridges rolling over into central US while WPO tries to go positive will torch us. Aleutian low is supposed to retrograde which would give a much colder pattern but if it takes it’s time then it will make Xmas week pretty mild.

There’s actually a pretty decent cold tuck signal showing up. Doesn’t really occur until after most of that first batch of precip but it could end up affecting NE MA and SE NH later Tuesday with freezing drizzle or black ice.

There was one just a few years ago I think in 2019. It wasn’t quite this prolific for amounts but it was like 6-7” and then 1-2” east of the spine. I remember winter hill had like 2” while 10 miles west had 6”.

Lol that thing belongs in a hotel lobby. Epic. Great tree though.

Nobody in CAD land is getting wiped out from Wednesday. Warm sector won’t last long enough. Could argue your area never gets warm sectored at all depending on which guidance we use.

Yeah he’s in Clinton MA which is a decent spot but not for the 12/5 event. That was one of the worst spots. They got a bit of downslope but also it was a QPF min there up into NE MA and SE NH.

Yeah in 2020 I had cover from 12/5 until the grinch storm. 2017 was the last time we had good cover well before Xmas (12/9) and made it last right through the holidays. It’s hard to keep early December snow cover this far south.

Still snow covered in most of my yard but the south facing torch spots are bare on the street. But at least it feels and looks like winter for the most part. Better than the last 3 Decembers which were just hot garbage…and an emphasis on the “hot”.

Anafront snows...mostly in VT....doesn't look like much further east.

Don’t love the track of it. Screams pretty quick dryslot after the initial isentropic burst but we’ll see. I’m sticking with C-1” here but can’t totally rule out getting lucky with 2”.

Could be a nice fluffy advisory event for NNE tonight. That’s a good look on the clipper. I think down here in pike region I’d go C-1”. Maybe some 2” lollis in N ORH county over to Berks.

Clipper might not drop any accumulations south of rt 2. We’ll see. We really wanted it about 50-100 miles south. Too bad we couldn’t get midweek further east too. There’s def going to be an anafront band of snow with it but it’s going to be west of us.

You can grab them straight from ecmwf.int site. Here’s weeks 4, 5, and 6 (week 4 is Dec 30-Jan 6 for reference)…obv we take with a grain of salt that far out right now

Yeah maybe we do a January gtg. We’ve done January in several years in the past. For Clark’s I’d prob choose something the week of 12/16-12/20. Not sure I can make Monday 12/23 but that date is kind of nostalgic because 12/23/13 was the date of the original Clark’s GTG.

It’s weird seeing a snow event modeled below freezing. I’d like it if we could shift that south another 50-75 miles or so. Feel like we’d get in on the more prolonged isentropic lift.

Check the weeklies today for January “Keep your eyes shut MaryAnne! Don’t look at it”

EPS def looking decent by the end of the run....actually moved it up a little and the look got better. Similar to what the weeklies show leading into the week of Xmas....hopefully it's onto something. Even GEFS took a nice step today too.

Doubtful for me. Boys have youth basketball that day.

We will warm sector but it’s just a lot shorter than some of the previous solutions which had us like in a 48 hour warm sector. Now it’s more like 6-12 hours at least over interior. Longer on the coast locations.

Yeah it’s too bad we can’t shove that arctic boundary a bit further south behind the clipper on Sunday. If we could, that would introduce a lot more “interesting” look for the main event mid-week. It’s close but doesn’t quite really make it here…we are kind of left with the leading-edge polar airmass in place. Still cold enough for some marginal light frozen/freezing precip over interior but not enough to make the main show more interesting. It eventually gets bullied out. But the look is definitely more favorable for the snow economy up north. Wouldn’t be a total wipeout like some of those 60F cutter solutions we saw a few days ago.

That’s pretty good for the first week of December. It’s not record breaking or anything but it’s def quite cold. Record low max for ORH today is 18F and tomorrow it’s 21F. They get much lower as you go into mid and late December but early December climo is still relatively mild. Avg high is still 40F at 1,000 foot ORH on Dec 6th. It falls to 33 by late month.

That’s a very wedged look on GFS for Monday/Tuesday. Gonna have to watch for frozen/freezing precip over interior even if it’s light in that setup.

Actually gave about 3-5” for ORH up to your area Monday night. Not sure I buy that yet but the trend has def been wedgier with that.

Why has BOX not updated the PNS since 1045am yesterday? That’s kind of weird.