ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Ukie went east a bit. I don’t think it’s going to be correct verbatim but still clearly some pretty decent spread on guidance.
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Yeah this could easily be rain early but flip to several hours of mod/heavy snow near the end for SE areas. I want to see the euro come on board for a much further NW track before making that type of forecast. I’m still favoring compromise until we have clear evidence we shouldn’t. Euro just finished disemboweling a lot of guidance in the 1/11 event.
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Yeah incorrect application of the messenger shuffle term…it’s a SE term and it usually happens once inside of 36h (frequently inside of 24)
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Yeah you might almost get a pseudo-pivot on that. It’s moving quickly but as this thing tries to scoot a bit ENE late in the game with the deepening mid-levels, someone could get hammered for 2-4 hours.
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When looping it vs 06z the track is very similar but the QPF field might be slightly more compact on the 12z run. Prob mostly noise.
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Then maybe just a tick west again at 60h…essentially the same track. Wobbling every 3h.
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Looks a tick east at 57 but very close to 06z
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I’ve seen them be very stubborn before and then cave late. Esp RGEM. But they can still be directionally correct in the mean….in other words, the flatter models will trend toward them. GEFS and EPS don’t have any members as amped as them so I think the RGEM/GGEM eventually come east at least somewhat. I’m still going with a compromise.
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And furthest west EPS member still tracks just east of CHH while OP RGEM tracks into interior SE MA.
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I was expecting Canadian suite to come east a bit like 06z did….someone is going to be quite incorrect inside of 60 hours.
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The thing is….it’s the NAM that’s slowly caving right now and not the other way around. I do expect the western outliers (Canadian suite) to start drifting east but I’m not expecting a wholesale shift SE to where most of SNE is getting just scraped by this thing.
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Most are famine…it’s been a very good pattern for upslope snow so anyone on the NW or W side of big mountains are going to be doing well. Hopefully we start getting some more synoptic events going.
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NAM isn’t going to be correct. I’d prob not be putting out 6-10 totals yet but at least telling people that a decent snowfall is a very distinct possibility for Sunday afternoon/night. Even the 3k NAM is a lot more organized than the 12k.
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That kuchera map is def taking advantage of ratios on 06z euro.
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It won’t be imho. It’ll slide east. I don’t think EPS has a single member like reggie. I could def see a compromise though
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Even a 70/30 or 80/20 compromise in favor of the 06z GFS with the 06z euro would be really good for most. I’d love to lock in the GFS here but I’m still leery of these further SE solutions on the Euro suite.
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Lol…NAM totally out to lunch on this one I think. But it’s interesting that the old EE combo are the furthest SE. my guess is we see a compromise of some sorts….which would prob maximize the snow coverage in SNE which is a plus.
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It’s because the euro is the superior model. Kind of a large gap for being 60 hours out right now though. I’d expect we’ll see a swift convergence today on guidance. My guess is euro comes west some more and the Canadian duo comes east a bit. We’ll see though…weirder things have happened.
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06z euro still pretty far southeast though it looked a little NW of 00z. Surprised at the gap between it and the 06z gfs.
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Some spots could put up some impressive lows during the middle of next week if we can decouple with snow cover. -20 to -25 850 temps while decoupled with snow cover will make some good numbers. Nothing super crazy but I’d expect a lot of below zero readings in the usual rad pits if that happened.
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Probably a good time to remind everyone:
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I like the RGEM in the short range....I'm not sure I'd use it as a marker at 72-84 hours....it's a piece of fringe guidance at that range imho.....GGEM can be ok, but again, the GFS is better than it at this point during winter season for our region. Maybe years ago they'd run neck and neck. I def still look at the Canadian...it still scores enough coups and it was the model sniffing this threat out days ago when all others were completely flat like @Typhoon Tip already mentioned.,
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Yeah agreed. That’s what I meant when I said it was “directionally correct” but may be a little too west verbatim now. But if we still get the final solution to be anything lien the GFS or heck, even more of a weaker advisory event like the euro, it’s still a win for the GGEM in the D5/6 range. It does score coups now and then. @40/70 Benchmark will never forget December 2022 coup it scored when our east coast blizzard turned into the apocalypse for Buffalo while we enjoyed another grinch rainstorm.
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My guess is they would not be viewed as much if they weren’t coming out early in the cycle. If they were late like the JMA or NAVGEM, they’d be relegated to similar status. Canadian might be a little more useful but not by a lot.
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I kind of like seeing some JV models this amped because of the euro suite being pretty far southeast. Makes me think a compromise is coming at some point.
