ORH_wxman

It’s frequently a red flag when NAM is paltry because the bias of that model is to be zonked with huge QPF. We’d be tossing it if it showed a solution tracking over Scooter’s Fanny. I don’t think there’s a reason to be crazy down on this event, but I don’t want unrealistic expectations either….widespread big warning totals (say lots of double digit amounts mixed with with high single digits) might be a heavy lift.

Yeah but it’s def a bit of a red flag for the higher end amounts. We’ll see how 00z goes.

3km might be even more Meh. Those runs were basically keeping the WCB and CCB completely disjointed. The WCB just runs east with all that convection. Which could be real too.

Lower QPF. Steady stuff is like a 4 hour band of moderate snow.

1/24 is more likely than 1/22. I think 1/22 is pretty much gone though can’t rule out some weenie snow on the Cape. Had a fleeting chance still maybe 12h ago but models are pretty happy to punt it now. 1/24 has some work to do but there’s enough interest on ensemble guidance to keep following.

The actual accumulating snow is prob about 6-8 hours. Yeah, a few weenie flakes may persist until 2-4am but that won’t change any totals. It’s a fast mover. Someone could stack quickly if they get into good banding with ratios but hard to forecast that for everyone.

18z HRRR kind of flaccid compared to 12z but still prob 4-8” for most.

I actually took my snow blower out of the shed today and started it. I’ve used it once in the past 2 years…zero times in winter of 2022-23 and once last winter in the 1/7 event. Pretty sure I’ll use it in this event. Hopefully I didn’t jinx it either. It really hits home what a dearth of warning snowfall events we’ve had. I’ve had so many 2-4” events and most of them (until the 12/20 and 1/11 events) were marginal paste that prob accumulated half that on the driveway anyway. Been really pathetic.

Washington has been pathetic for so long that all the NFC East fans don’t mind them as much these days. That may change quickly though, lol. Anyways, I’m feeling pretty good about 5-8” into your hood with a chance at 10”+ lolli. I think it might go to town there for a few hours during that period where it’s starting to crank up but shooting ENE at the same time…might be an enhanced few hours of heavy snow.

Don’t think they’ll go watches tonight. If anything probably warnings since the overnight package is gonna be like 18 hours before the onset. Might go watches in afternoon package today?

The entire gulf coast down there is in a remarkable setup. Could be some serious accumulations down to the delta in Louisiana and beaches of Alabama and Mississippi…in addition to the Florida panhandle.

Yeah that’s a pretty bad performance right there. If we start from yesterday 12z, I think we’re going to end up getting like a 70/30 or 80/20 compromise toward the GFS run. Doesn’t happen too often. I am still slightly worried about the precip shield. Euro finally looks pretty good but there’s still hints of raggedness even there and on GFS (and NAM is more ragged)

BOS gets hammered on that run.

They will do well imho. Their only risk was if these super zonked solutions like rgem prior to 12z were going to verify and make them too warm at 925 but that seems like a non-starter now. You typically want an intense mesoband with big ratios to get double digits in a storm moving this fast. We’ve seen in some before but it’s hard to forecast it. There is a cross hair sig showing up on a lot of guidance so it’s something to watch.

Your area may end up doing sneaky good.

This run is

Isn’t he in northeast CT? 1-3 sounds quite a bit too low there. Even for the valleys. Don’t think elevation will play a huge role..maybe only in the first couple hours.

I’m not discounting someone getting higher amounts either. This is the type of system where I’d prob have a slightly larger range than I typically like to have. If someone rips in a mesoband for a bit, they’ll prob get 10” or even a little more…but there’s a distinct path to getting 4-5” too. I kind of hate using the 5-10 range but this is the type of storm I might use it. Unless we get a little bump back in the more organized direction on tonight’s 00z runs…if that happens then maybe I’d be more inclined to go with the higher floor. The huge uncertainty too is the ratios. This is a storm where going 10 to 1 in the interior might be low balling. I’ve seen storms bust on snow amounts even if QPF was pretty accurate because a large swath got fluff-bombed with 18 to 1 or 20 to 1 ratios.

I think 8” as a floor is too aggressive. Not saying you won’t get that much, but as someone who is looking at this with kind of mediocre QPF from the Euro/NAM and some slight backing off on the GFS….given we still have 30 hours to go, I think a good forecast would hedge with a lower floor. Ratios will probably be good over interior so that will help some, but I’d want my forecast to cover a scenario where we get 0.4” of QPF with maybe like 13 to 1 ratios if we don’t get into the best stuff.

Done. No worries, lol.

There’s no need to deny the SE shift. It’s def went a bit SE and slightly less organized. It just means we’re prob not getting 12-16” of snow…I’d still go a solid 4-8/5-10 over the central zones.

GFS ticked cooler again for those on the line in far SE areas. Still excellent for most of us in the interior.

Pretty good move E by Reggie. Figured it was coming at some point.

Ratios could be good over the interior too…so even if something like half an inch of QPF verified and not larger amounts, could still put up 8” from that.

I think the position of the low affects it somewhat. NAM and EC are SE and weaker…not as consolidated. I think a more consolidated low will really make a difference in QPF as the conveyors are more mature. You can see on that saturation coloring how the low level WCB and CCB are basically disjointed whereas on the juicier models, they are linked and much healthier looking.