ORH_wxman

06z eps only goes to 144 on this but this is a bit faster secondary development than 00z

That look would def favor eastern areas. But too far out to get that granular. It could be tracking over Scooter’s head a few days from now. Signal for a storm is there at least. Hopefully that first shortwave continues to be deemphasized which will put more focus on the 12/22 system.

EPS def still has a solid look for next weekend. Pretty classic Miller B look actually. The worry on that depiction is it gets going a little too late…esp for southwest areas, but if you dig that trough just a bit more then it’s moot.

First wave is too close to the second on the euro. Second isn’t able to tap into baroclinicity so it doesn’t produce anything. First wave does produce advisory snows over the interior though…but it’s a typical elevation slop event. If we can increase the wave spacing, then that second one would prob produce a nice little event…redevelop type. But this is parsing details at D6-8 so there’s really no use expending too much energy…but it’s something we’ll want to watch for.

Canadian tries for the 12/22 system too but comes in a bit shallower with the shortwave so it’s like a clipper/redeveloper south of New England. Lot of moving parts between 12/19-12/22.

The ridge spike around 12/22 is really strong. I feel like that is the one with the higher end potential.

I’m not even that worried about the few days after Xmas…if it ends up milder, so be it but there’s strong evidence the Aleutian low retrogrades southwest so we’d see a rebuilding of the western ridge beyond that. I’m also a little skeptical at the degree of breakdown in the first place. Guidance has been underestimating the amplitude of the ridge when we have an Aleutian low so far this month. Been a lot of volatility in the extended range these last two weeks. That’s one reason I’d also pump the brakes on the pre-Xmas storm analysis. Prob gonna see more changes on that as guidance tries to figure out the ridge amplitude and shortwaves.

May have to watch for a burst of snow on Monday with that lead shortwave. Still enough antecedent cold around on a lot of these solutions.

Always get a good laugh from this thread in the mornings.

Yeah there was no big storm on Xmas eve in 1993. But there were snow showers. We actually salvaged a white Cmas that year in ORH because of that. We got about an inch of snow with the snow showers after the 12/21/93 grinch storm had wiped out our snow pack. I don’t recall any Xmas eve storms in the 1990s except 1998 which was strictly a SE MA storm. We had nothing in ORH. Obviously 12/23/97 was close…day before Xmas eve.

Xmas Eve had an absolute monster snowstorm in 1961. A lot of central and eastern SNE had over 20” in that one. One of the more underrated KU type storms around here.

A massive rainstorm hit in 1994. Subtropical low. I think there were hurricane force gusts on the coast.

There’s at least some support for that follow-up storm.

Congrats scooter on the 21st Euro.

Never underestimate the CAD over interior CNE.

We’ll be tracking the pressure by the minute at BTV. Someone can start a thread.

Finally busted out of the inversion around noontime. Haven’t had much wind yet though

There’s probably two shots between 12/20-12/26 if we’re trying to read the tea leaves on the ensembles. There’s two distinct ridge spikes that occur…the first one is near 12-20 and then the whole thing retrogrades a bit and a second one occurs around 12/25.

Still 39 here...but 50s really close by

GEFS actually looked good the week of Xmas. Funny part was the EPS previously was the one looking the best now it’s the GEFS. EPS doesn’t look bad, just not as good as it did. There’s actually a decent shot at something between about 12/21-12/22 and 12/26 looking at the position of the mean longwaves. The western ridge retrogrades after the 12/21-22 “threat”, which would open up some room to get an additional system within a few days after.

00z yin-yang. 12z guidance seems to be more optimistic the last couple days while 00z looks ugly. Most of the ugliness so there’s no real antecedent airmass for the pre-Xmas threat.

Let’s get a 2017 Xmas out of that trough.

It used to be more optimistic in here circa 7-10 years ago. We need a solid stretch and it will become so again. We have lots of mentally weak spoiled weenies here who can’t believe we’re taking it on the chin after out-performing our snowfall climo by like 50% over a 15 year period.

EPS has a signal for Dec 21-22…it’s weak but it’s definitely there. Can’t really say much more when you are 11-12 days out. So much can change even in the longwave pattern.

I do think there is room to try for an event in that 12/20-12/22 period or so. @Typhoon Tip laid out the larger scale argument already…there’s probably going to be some decent antecedent cold available. Just a question of getting a shortwave to dive into the mean trough and amplify. EPS looks better than GFS suite on this but both offer some support.