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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    That PV lobe vortmax rotating down in Quebec is what would be needed to get a colder solution next week. If you can rotate that down into northern Maine or something then it gets very interesting. But right now most guidance is too far north with it. This is the clown range NAM at 12z
  2. ORH_wxman
    Some big bands coming in now
  3. ORH_wxman
    Winter hill
  4. ORH_wxman
    Moderate snow here and 32.5.
  5. ORH_wxman
    That’s an impressive collapse east after midnight. Really quick.
  6. ORH_wxman
    If you were in the Carolinas was that 12/16/05? I remember a monster ice storm down there on that date. We had significant icing here too in interior SNE but it wasn’t what the Carolinas saw in that event. Actually prob started the day before that far south.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s def low expectation for next week but it’s an extremely poleward ridge and that can sometimes do goofy things to guidance. We’ve seen cutters in the past turn into legit winter storms on models as they get closer with huge poleward ridging. I’m skeptical there’s enough trend in the tank to get us there on this one, but it’s obviously plausible given some of the solutions we’ve seen today.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Yeah there was no major ice storm in 2012. Gotta give Gordon a break…
  9. ORH_wxman
    It’s like -1 to -2 there at 925. You’ll be snow. Might be a bit sloppy to start but it will be snow. You’ll start in the next 20-30 min I think.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Juicy too. Big area of over half inch of QPF.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Should start seeing flakes in western CT soon. Looks like radar starting to blossom a little bit.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Two different scenarios offer a chance at something more wintry next week but we’re def going to be warmer at least for a few days prior to that. The magnitude is still in doubt. It could be 55-60 and rain but there’s a chance it never gets close to that warm either. I’d think it might benefit to torch for a day or two if we can press the boundary down behind it sort of like the Euro had. I’d say we wait and see what guidance does over the next 2-3 days on that front.
  13. ORH_wxman
    RAP and HRRR continue to cool for eastern areas overnight. Pretty good burst of moderate snow for several hours right into Boston on both models. Prob not much accumulation right in city but just outside could see some.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Western spine of ORH hills have a decent shot but they’ll only issue warning if 50% of a given area is high confidence for 6”+. I don’t think the area would be large enough. Could be a situation where a town like Barre MA or Oakham or even North Brookfield gets 6” and Paxton MA at higher elevation gets 4” because of the terrain and SW flow. I think there’s def going to be a terrain gradient in the QPF too.
  15. ORH_wxman
    18z NAM gone wild for ORH hills to Kevin.
  16. ORH_wxman
    I’m still a bit skeptical but 2”+ would be great. HRRR def colder and RAP has trended colder as well all day…it tries to bring accumulating snow to close-in metrowest Boston like near Jerry’s hood.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Euro has a somewaht different evolution…let’s that first system just completely cut while dampening out the southern stream (almost a glorified FROPA) but then behind it is another chance and that’s where we actually get scraped by that coastal at D9. That would probably be a more favorable setup than trying to get that initial high to press down which looks like a much heavier lift.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Jesus Christ take it to the banter/panic thread guys.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Looks like 12z euro improved a bit for the 495 belt too. Not expecting a lot of accumulation there but better chance to see an inch or two versus just a few flakes.
  20. ORH_wxman
    GGEM was kind of close too…but the key for next week is to drive that boundary further south and the little clipper that passes to our north this weekend is a key player…on runs where it’s further south, it drags the boundary more southeast behind it and gives New England a chance. Most recent runs have had it pretty far north…but 12z today has been coming a bit further south with it. NAM was furthest south easily (but can’t see next week’s system on NAM obviously).
  21. ORH_wxman
    Sfc temps are mostly fake…look at 925 to get a good idea. Some areas might even radiate a bit right after sundown before clouds get thick (esp further northeast)…but that won’t matter if 925 is like +1.
  22. ORH_wxman
    On the plus side, GFS might try to give the Rose Bowl snow again in clown range. @CoastalWx is really excited about another snow anomaly there.
  23. ORH_wxman
    That would require getting some good variance…not in the cards these days.
  24. ORH_wxman
    That’s a really close call next week on GFS. If we can get that little clipper system this weekend further south, it will make next week’s threat more interesting.
  25. ORH_wxman
    GFS is basically all snow from 495 outward. Not sure I buy it but we’ll see if short term guidance comes in cooler as we get closer this afternoon.
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