ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Ineedsnow intensity equation is just move the decimal place over one: light snow = greater than 5 mile vis moderate = between 2.5 and 5 mile heavy snow = 2.5 miles or less.
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RAP has been looking healthier recently but HRRR has been staying a bit flaccid. I want to see a bit more WCB stuff trying to push north in the waters south of LI/SE MA/RI.
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Thinking 3-6 here. Maybe 4-8 if we do good ratios.
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At the end of the day it looks close to a typical 70/30 euro win (talking inside of 72h….it lost the medium range battle). Unless this can tuck in a bit more than guidance currently says. It’s still a decent event but widespread 8-12 with higher lollis doesn’t look very likely which is basically what GFS/Canadian guidance had at one point (with much less near coast)
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HRRR and RAP are pretty weak sauce at the moment. I’d like to see them ramp up a bit today.
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06z euro ramped back up. Gonna be interesting to nowcast this today.
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That’s around an inch of QPF BOS on that GFS run and the midlevel look supported it that run. Pretty healthy and a little closer to some of those previous GFS runs on the midlevel look except displaced a bit further east. We’ll see if we can get a little last second trend stronger with that initial WCB.
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If we can get the WCB more established between now and go-time, then we’d prob see QPF increase across the region. You want to be drawing in that extra moisture into the CCB over the top of that legit cold dome to the west and we can wring it out.
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or what he said…similar thinking
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You have a bit of elevation too, right? That will prob help you in the first hour or two. I’d prob peg ratios for like 13 to 1 there but it wouldn’t surprise me if you got into a weenie band and went close to 16 or 18 to 1.
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I actually don’t hate where I am right now. Been rare to say that the last few years.
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NAM looked actually somewhat healthy that run with the conveyors. Still not totally there like some of those zonked GFS runs but it’s much better.
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They are in a great spot as the midlevels start closing off. CF will enhance a bit too but it’s mostly getting into that great zone just as the midlevels close off…can help intensify banding and perhaps prolong it an extra hour or two. That zone could still shift a bit though and we’ll just have to nowcast where any smaller meso bands might set up.
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Don’t let Ekster see this.
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A lot of areas out east will start a bit slow. Prob a few rain drops or white rain at the onset while initial banding is west and then I’d expect it to all of the sudden go nuts.
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Not for near BOS and SE MA. Pretty nice look there.
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Could be some good early banding out there before things congeal eastward.
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I was only half-kidding when I said Scooter to Tblizz might jackpot this. There’s a period where that zone could absolutely rip for 3 hours or so. If they get into one of those bands that’s 2-3”/hr, all bets off. I think there’s going to be an initial weenie band west out toward our friends in W/C CT and then things are rapidly going to try and congeal to the east.
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It’s gonna be funny watching the south shore to Tblizz jackpotting with 8-10” after all the hand wringing.
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I don’t think Boston is going to lose that much QPF at the beginning. Maybe a little bit as they wait for the BL to cool…Xmas 2017 needed a deeper dynamic cooling from higher aloft before flipping to snow.
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NAMs have def been consistently the lowest on QPF aside from the previous Euro runs…but 12z Euro left the NAMs as the lowest now. I’ll feel a bit better if they bump up at 00z.
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The “meh” is because I think too many get addicted to the higher end outputs. When you mentally start expecting a major major snowstorm with over 1” of QPF and then reality smacks you back to half that, there’s an emotional letdown. But in an absolute sense, this is still a pretty solid event….and there’s still a chance for some banding surprises too.
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It’s probably going to be a pretty solid event for most of SNE. Those shifts are just confirming what so many have already posted previously….those zonked 1”+ QPF runs were overdone. A solid 0.4-0.7 QPF with decent ratios is nothing to sneeze at though…especially given the last couple of winters.
