ORH_wxman

GEFS and EPS both warming us up mid-month for sure. I do like that the EPO/WPO ridging is maintaining though so that often limits the duration of warmups. As for before that…after the clipper, I think the best shot is more like 12/8ish. That look on GFS seems a lot better than the later 12/10 look on both Euro and GFS but given how far out 12/10 is, not gonna get too definitive there. Could easily look better in a span of a couple runs.

MJO wave looks pretty weak once past the second week of December on most progs…we’ll see if it stays that way but I’d suspect it isn’t the primary pattern driver by that point if it verifies that weak.

EPS has a pretty large ridge spike out west around 12/9-12/10. The only issue is that it doesn’t have to be snow if you phase too much crap to the west. That’s what the OP run did…granted it’s day 10-11 by the time the storm hits. GFS is def focusing on the shortwave a couple days earlier trying to bring something for 12/8.

Didn’t look as good as 12z but it wasn’t that different. Shortwave wasn’t quite as sharp.

Euro really blows up that clipper on 12/5 in gulf of maine. It’s a few inches for most of SNE but if that digs just a bit more it could be something more significant.

Let's see if we can trend this clipper a little juicier for next week....then I'll worry about mid-month relaxations. Euro and GFS trying to pop it a little bit late as it exits eastward....so might be something to watch.

I don’t take them seriously either way. So it’s not really an interesting detail to parse to me. But I’ve def heard the SV maps have a reputation for being overdone. But then again, 10 to 1 is often overdone for various reasons too whether models overdo QPF or snow growth is bad or temps are marginal. Sometimes they’re underdone on occasion when snow growth is good.

Hence why we call them clown maps and clown range.

If someone offered us 8-10” of snow between now and 12/12, I think most of us would take it in SNE. There was prob a time I’d rather roll the dice, but not now. NNE a different story since many will get warning snowfall tomorrow.

GFS almost pulls a 1/27/15 in clown range. But the longwave pattern is somewhat similar to the 2015 pattern with the trough axis extending from Quebec down through New England and a huge western ridge axis sitting over Idaho/Washington/Oregon. I don’t know if we’re going to get a good snowstorm or not but I’ll be very surprised if there aren’t several legit chances that show up on guidance.

Prob starts as a bit of snow there before flipping. Might end as a few flakes too.

Yeah not really a New England thing but this pattern looks amazing for the LES belt. The mountains of VT are prob gonna get a lot of leftovers too which will be good for the ski areas. You get those little vort maxes rotating around the ULL and they pick up the LES bands and they hit the west slopes if Berkshires and Greens.

Unfortunate timing that you didn’t get back to CT for 2017-18. That was a very good winter too.

Yeah last night had a couple clippers and maybe an overrunning threat in clown range and all of the sudden the vibe is better, lol. But nothing is fundamentally different at all on guidance. Think of all those systems that try to get us at D10 with anice SFWE or overrunning look or even a coastal look and end up over BUF or inland runners once we get closer…that can happen to our benefit too in this type of pattern. Suppression turns into a coastal storm (saw a lot of that in 2015). Guidance isn’t going to to be able to sample shortwaves very easily over the Siberian arctic that then come over the WPO/EPO ridge into our domain that eventually become our threats. It’s just a hard thing for models to do that far out and especially in those data-sparse regions. None of this means we’re going to get a big snow event, but it does mean that we should relax a bit and wait until we get a lot closer to the meat of the pattern before worrying about individual threats. It’s easier said than done, understandably, when the last 2 winters have been hot garbage.

Wish I was over where we go in summer on Moose Pond near Bridgeton. They are gonna get croaked I think.

It’s hard to get wire to wire sub-freezing (or close to it) cold in December. You’re usually going to have a few days of 45+ in SNE outside the elevations so I wouldn’t worry about trying to sustain the pattern all the way through new years. It’s unlikely. But an ideal manifestation would be when you do get a relaxation, it’s only back to near normal temps or just slightly AN for second half of month when climo is colder anyway.

Ton of black ice here this morning. There’s some frost/rime on a some of the bushes and grass.

We’ll always have 2011…that includes weather too.

Euro has clipper for 12/4 and the GEFS has some support there even if the OP doesn’t. Mentioned this to Ray earlier in this thread that the 12/4-12/6 period has some decent meridional flow so while a large ticket event is unlikely until post-12/6, there’s def a chance for something northern stream before that…mostly likely a clipper but if you dig it enough it can turn into a redeveloper/Miller B-east type system. Lots of cold around during that window too so ptype issues would be minimized.

Could be something in the 12/4-12/7 range too but I agree a bit after that seems a little easier. But there’s some pretty good meridional flow during that time so even though there’s some wave spacing problems on guidance, it’s clown range and you never know how shortwaves will look as we get closer.

Wrong thread.

There’s nothing to say other than the pattern is going to be cold for much of early December. That will be a nice table setting for any potential storm systems…we need pretty decent negative departures to get snowstorms in early December outside of paste jobs for elevations. So hopefully the shortwaves cooperate. I can’t say anything that is going to make the pessimists change their tune. Only the weather can do that. I’d like to see a bit more analysis in this thread though and less bickering back and forth. Fingers crossed we get some good legit threats after the first few days of the month. I think the chances are higher than climo for sure in this pattern.

N ORH county above 1000 feet def has a chance. I wouldn’t go gangbusters there yet but it’s not crazy to think they might get several inches if this breaks right. It really is too bad it’s November without an arctic airmass in place.

Gonna need some decent rates too I think for anything other than a sloppy inch or two below 1000 feet. If we can trend 925mb about 1C colder, that would be a big difference over the interior. But right now, I’m fading anything over a couple inches of slop in interior elevated SNE.

12/5 produced a lot of events in the past (2002, 2003, 2009…even 2020 had the interior elevated paste job on 12/5).