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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Slow start to the season for melt in May so far. The updates will be more interesting as we get into mid-June. The next week looks pretty slow too except up in the Laptev where some warm air could start eating into the pack there and create meltponding. The Beaufort looks a bit vulnerable this year, so if a dipole pattern can set up, then we could see a chance to make up some ground since the Beaufort/CAA region is always crucial for trying to go big in a melt season.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Kind of sucks we cleared out near sunset but the numbers don’t look that good. Maybe we’ll spike back up later into the evening but it seems the best might be closer to morning and clouds may be a bigger issue by then.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Here’s a pic we got. Obv exposure-enhanced but that pink/purple pillar was very visible with naked eye and the glow around it actually got decently bright for a couple min. The green lower down you couldn’t see with naked eye.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Just got back from going to top of the street where there are no street lights. Could see a pillar very clearly. Lasted about 5 min with naked eye before fading.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that was a quick spike. Maybe we can shoot it to a new high if it has some momentum. Bz is down near -45 right now too.
  6. ORH_wxman
    I remember in Mar ‘97 when I would go to my cousins’ place in Princeton you could see the tail going almost halfway across the sky. It was awesome. Back down in Worcester the light pollution made it only a very short tail.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Link I posted earlier updates fairly quickly. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity.html someone may have an even better one. If they do they should post it.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Kp index falling quickly again. Hopefully next wave hits once it’s really dark.
  9. ORH_wxman
    I feel like it’s gonna be hit or miss for a while. The skies are def looking decent facing northeast right now here but there’s still a lot of crap around in all other directions.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Should be able to see it as long as you aren’t in downtown I think and the clouds cooperate. Kp is 9 now with a Bz of -43. I’ve never seen those numbers before since I started following loosely in the early 2000s.
  11. ORH_wxman
    These numbers are crazy. Numbers aside, I don’t think I’ve seen the auroral oval this far south on their maps.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Not sure I’ve seen these numbers happen at night since October 2003. Did we achieve this in Nov 2006? My memory is hazy from that event but I feel like it was a bit short. I remember not seeing anything in ‘06 but I could see it pretty easily in 2003.
  13. ORH_wxman
    This site seems to be pretty updated. If someone has a better tracking site then post in here. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity.html From my amateur knowledge on this you want big Kp (usually over Kp of 6 gives us a chance) and big negative Bz values. I’m not sure how much the other stuff matters but maybe it does.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Bz at -25 too.....you know this is going to line up perfect and then we're gonna get stuck in clouds.
  15. ORH_wxman
    I don’t have fancy camera pics like some here but it was incredible. Went up to my cousin’s in south Burlington to see it. Got this cell phone pic on Megan’s phone (my phone camera is worse than hers) Problem with the cell phone pics is that even a sliver of light around the edges gets dispersed out on the picture to make it look a lot brighter and thicker than it is.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Might be some stuff that rotates down overnight depending on which model to believe.
  17. ORH_wxman
    5.5” on winter hill in ORH.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Sleet is in Holliston. I’ll report form winter hill at some pint probably.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Starting to get scalped here. Pinging picked up big time in the past 10 min
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yes. I think the western ULL ended up overpowering some of the height bulges out to the east that we were seeing yesterday on some runs. It’s a bit less prominent today so it’s taking longer for the storm to turn the mid-level winds easterly…and as you said, pretty hard to get monster totals when you are relying too much on WAA precip. Someone a little further north may benefit more though. I wouldn’t mind being near my summer vacation spot on Moose Pond in Denmark for this one. Pleasant Mountain FTW
  21. ORH_wxman
    The H7 warm front lifts north relatively quickly once it gets established over SNE. Some of the better runs yesterday we’re trying to stall it for a few hours which is how you get 20-burgers there but that seems unlikely now as it doesn’t slow down until near S ME/NH border. But yeah, if you can flash to parachutes by 03-04z, then you’ll have a path to warning criteria snow.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Trying to flip the pike region to snow around 06-07z. Warm layer really tries to wash out. I’m skeptical but big lift can do the trick sometimes. Esp if it’s in the DGZ where it will enhance latent cooling.
  23. ORH_wxman
    NAM had a much higher area of 2”+ QPF over maine and SE NH and far NE MA. Euro had a small bullseye. They weren’t too dissimilar further west though.
  24. ORH_wxman
    It’s been that way for several runs now for the most part since yesterday. Might be a red flag. But it basically has no agreement from other guidance.
  25. ORH_wxman
    They run it off Ray’s computer.
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