ORH_wxman

If you get one more tick colder, then you’ll be in big snows I think…right now it’s still a lot of sleet contamination.

06z Euro cooled. That’s pretty interesting now for N MA.

Funny how euro might be the the warmest model now. Maybe the NAM is with it. Both are razor close though for northern SNE near rt 2 and NH border.

Looks a bit warmer though through 54 compared to 18z.

That’s a hell of a sleet storm for a good chunk of SNE on that run.

Def Coming in colder at least through 51h

NAM def is the warmest and sometimes it’s right. But other times it can be on crack when it’s the warm outlier. I think it was pretty horrific in the March 23rd event up north. If the warmth is being caused by convection on the NAM, then it all depends on whether it sees that convection better than other guidance and that’s where the NAM can sometimes have an advantage. I did think it was strange that the RGEM wasn’t biting and instead has been on the colder side of guidance.

The low levels are pretty cold on GFS. The concern is between 700-800mb with the warm layer. The sfc might be 32-33 but you have like -4C at 925 over that MA/NH border region so you’re not dropping slush balls from that boundary layer.

Euro was a little better with the secondary. Hits S NH and maybe extreme N MA near the border decently Thursday AM whereas the 12z run really didn’t do much in those areas.

18z GFS is actually pretty interesting for the 128 crew just NW of BOS. Lot of sleet but it does flash to heavy snow during the latter stages. Warm layer is pretty thin too for a while even before that.

Destroys Ray with a 20 burger.

Oh yeah, I agree. There would def be more excitement if euro came on board but I guarantee almost nobody would be spiking footballs like they would 8-10 years ago if it showed that inside of 84 hours. Despite a little bit of a trend cooler at 12z overall in model guidance, my guess is 90% of SNE posters are expecting almost all rain and that is what the expectation should be. Exceptions are prob from Rays area over to N ORH county and Berkshires…and even those areas are likely a lot of mixed crap too. If we can get a decent move at 00z, then it might get more interesting, but we’re running out of time.

I mean, euro has been glue factory material on more than one storm this season. So as long as there are some half-respectable models disagreeing with it, it’s worth watching this threat. But it’s going to be tough regardless once you are south of the pike at low elevation. Even rt 2 crowd could still get skunked mostly if this primary goes too zonked in Michigan/Huron.

Not much change on euro. Maybe slightly better with primary as it drifts SE from Lake Michigan instead of east into Lake Huron. But gonna need more help than that though.

Yeah both GGEM and Ukie were the flattest in that one. Ukie may have been a touch flatter but both were ugly.

Canadian bombs the primary over southern Lake Michigan. SNE will have a shot if that happens.

I honestly didn’t read that far back. Was busy with work. But it’s been a theme I’ve noticed since last night’s runs. We already knew a primary into Huron was bad for snow south of NNE but we were kind of hoping it would be over CLE instead previously…but that isn’t happening…however, an alternative version of getting more snow in SNE (or at least down into the SNE/CNE gray area) is to have the primary nuke out much further west over Lake Michigan.

Still pretty much a non-event for SNE in the mean though. Too many eastern Michigan/Lake Huron primaries which causes the secondary to rip up through interior SNE.

The colder solutions recently have had the primary maxing out over Lake Michigan or far western Michigan instead of the thumb of Michigan or Lake Huron. That is enough to make a difference and allow the coastal to consolidate a bit better without primary interference. Note that the 12z NAM was a “thumb of Michigan/Lake Huron” solution unlike the RGEM/GFS

Hopefully the progged convection performs about as well as the 2/13 event.

It’s collapsing heights to the east just a bit more…and I think it’s due to the main ULL out west dropping further south initially so it gives a little more time for that PV lobe in Nova Scotia to nudge southwest and try to crash heights just enough as the main ULL out west approaches. If that trend kept up, then it would get interesting for at least northern SNE. But it’s definitely a good development for CNE since it might try to link the WCB and CCB a bit and not allow that WAA to just rip to the northeast and keep everything more disjointed and warmer.

ICON was kind of Krafty for E and C MA and SE NH too Thursday AM. Not really biting on that yet but it wasn’t showing that previously until overnight. If you’re hoping for a longshot attempt here, the key is to get that little PV lobe over Nova Scotia to phase into the main ULL early enough to drop heights over New England and crash everything SE a bit before the western ULL wraps up the ML and LL circulation into the interior.

06z GFS was a little colder. Actually produces a sleet bomb over interior MA. I’m still expecting mostly rain here but there’s maybe like a 1 in 5 shot it could be a bit more interesting. I’d want to see the 12z runs tick cooler again. 00z was pretty furnaced outside of the Canadian.

N ORH county is def still in the game for big snow, but another tick and it’s over there too (outside of maybe advisory type snows on the WAA front end). Really need to stop this trend of a massive bombing primary in N Michigan/Lake Huron.

Need to keep the primary weaker and south. But that is the opposite of the current trend. Even for NNE I think keep the upper air a little toned down is what you want…not as much as SNE needs it but there’s a happy medium. But some of these GFS runs are just wrapping this thing up so much that there’s really no chance to consolidate the WAA/CCB together. Hopefully things trend back a little but I’m not optimistic about that.