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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    He would absolutely have a meltdown if ORH up to Ray got croaked and he didn’t. It needs to be like dendrite/Monadnocks northward for him not to care much. But I’m still worried about the disjointed WAA and ULL that the GFS shows. That’s a pretty meh solution for even the snowy areas. Still a decent storm but nothing close to historic like the more consolidated looks we’ve seen. Canadian is far more consolidated and organized.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Canadian on the other hand….
  3. ORH_wxman
    It’s disjointed with the WAA and the trailing ULL. These further north solutions where the WAA drives the baroclinic zone northeast cause the overall ceiling of the storm to decrease.
  4. ORH_wxman
    NAM still really cold and south at 84h but again, really doesn’t mean anything unless the big boy models trend that way.
  5. ORH_wxman
    I did notice the mesos were pretty suppressed. Doesn’t mean much yet though. If they still are once we get to tomorrow night then maybe. By then though, I’d expect globals to have moved some direction.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it ruined our storm up here but you guys in CT still got crushed. That was a weird one. It trended like 100 miles south inside of 36 hours.
  7. ORH_wxman
    It’s a subtle trend but the WAA and main coastal CCB have become a little more disjointed since yesterday. So it’s actually done two things: 1. Push the threat ever so slightly north 2. Slightly reduced the ceiling of a higher end KU type storm total max zone These are subtle trends and could easily shift back but they could also keep shifting the way they did overnight which would lessen the impact further.
  8. ORH_wxman
    No changes. Gonna need a subtle south shift if we want to get more of SNE in the game.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Tonight and tomorrow will be pretty big for the confidence of this storm track. Typically if you’re gonna see a big move, it’s that period from 120ish to getting inside of 100 hours. The biggest threat zone right now is prob something like western Maine foothills (like Bridgton and lakes regions there) down through dendrite-land into Monads, N ORH hills and Berks/S VT.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Lows are decently clustered at 126….but then they start to spray a bit like buckshot after that.
  11. ORH_wxman
    We’d all be worried if the Ukie was jackpotting us at this range.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Lol…maybe if it’s still showing big snow on Saturday or easter we can take it seriously.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Tamarack might not see the ground until May at this rate.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Reggie ain't biting for Friday.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it's not an isothermal look on the NAM....it's a decent lapse rate from the surface to 850. IF you actually verify that, then latent cooling is going to take the sfc to near-freezing fairly easily if you have any sort of heavy rates.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Well the NAM is one way to get a blue bomb.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Still needs a lot of work....you want to see legit rates in this thermal profile. There's a scenario where the low pressure develops along the front and gives us decent precip on Friday in the CCB, but it remains mostly rain because it steady light/moderate precip and not good rates. 06z NAM kind of showed this...decent precip in the CCB but mostly rain with just some sloppy snow over the hills...maybe an inch or two in a scenario like that but also could just be white rain.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that was a huge shift from even 06z.
  19. ORH_wxman
    It's also 2.5 weeks deeper into March than the Mar 2018 big dog which was Mar 12-13. That matters a lot climatologically.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Individual i took it as
  21. ORH_wxman
    EPS looked decently mild by 4/9.....but then again, the EPS has been utterly horrific this cold season, so taken with a grain of salt for now.
  22. ORH_wxman
    The other explanation is that the warmer waters didn't really have as much to do with it as hypothesized. Might be some other important factor or factors.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Ukie has the snow on Friday too in SNE. Looks pretty marginal in the lowest levels in the CP, but if guidance is going to try and spit out good hourly rates, then it will be worth watching. Certainly over the interior hills it is becoming a threat. The pattern we were hoping for in February now looks to be happening in late March and early April.
  24. ORH_wxman
    I think we only cracked freezing twice in January 2009....sneaky frigid month. Never hit 40F. Throw in 25" of snow from multiple events (in addition to the late December snows) and it was quite a stretch. Pack got pretty deep but not like 2011, 2013, or 2015 levels.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Still iced up this morning on winter hill in ORH. There’s basically zero ice about 300 feet lower.
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