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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    If we can’t grab that 2/24 storm, then we’re looking at pretty boring weather with temps in the 30s/40s. The snow OTG the last week or so has been nice but since we didn’t get warning criteria, it’s just slowly melting/sublimating and the whole thing is just more of a spring vibe than deep winter. Im all for big storms but this sucks. I’m well aware enough of our climo though to know that we’re not going to get consistently nice outdoor weather for a while.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Just whiffed here…we got a coating. I bet 5 miles south got crushed.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Maybe we can grab a 70 in early March looking at ensembles. Weeklies go cold again after that so I’m not expecting 2012…though at this point, I would absolutely take 2012 if offered. Only thing that would keep me on the winter train is if we can get a big dog threat from a bowling ball or something.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Not interested in this threat at all right now. It could change but todays runs don’t inspire any confidence.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Yeah you saw one of the best if not the GOAT in 1966 for that area. Pack that deep is rare in Ithaca. The nickel and dime events though were not.
  6. ORH_wxman
    SW CT special…someone could pull 2-4” there. Hoping for enough scraps further north for an inch.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah can’t buy a good setup….but who knows. Maybe we’ll get the unicorn bombing out that makes the airmass less of a concern. We’re due for an April ‘97…not trying to get greedy.
  8. ORH_wxman
    I think I’d like the evolution better if the southern vort went east a bit and then got captured by the northern stream digging and pulled back NW. That would create a cold CCB
  9. ORH_wxman
    Northern stream is cold. Feels like you’d need that inserted into the system at some point to turn it into something major.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Only thing we don’t have is a good antecedent airmass (surprise!) but obviously a big dynamic system could overcome that. Airmass could improve some as we get closer….the setup could look a bit different. People will have to remember this is D7-8
  11. ORH_wxman
    Euro def starting to look more interesting for something higher end….long time to go obviously but good to see many of the pieces in place
  12. ORH_wxman
    Euro ticked north again. 1-2” from much of the southern half of CT
  13. ORH_wxman
    ha…TTs of 55. Could get thundersnow on that sounding. Nothing else supports that look though so I’m expecting it to disappear as we get closer.
  14. ORH_wxman
    That def a bit more interesting with a ULL that deep on the GFS. That threat is still a long ways out so there is time for it to look a lot more threatening. Keeping expectations low but there is longwave support for something.
  15. ORH_wxman
    GFS looks good for an inch or two for southern half of CT…there’s actually a decent little area of H7 fronto that clips LI and the south coast so can’t rule out a little band that drops 3”+ lollis if that ends up verifying.
  16. ORH_wxman
    You are not going to have to worry about arctic Coke lines in the 2/24 threat. That is a pretty marginal airmass imho. Decent chance we get rain out of it too.
  17. ORH_wxman
    3k gives far SW CT a couple inches tomorrow AM. Def worth watching there.
  18. ORH_wxman
    “Sneaky pattern for NNE/upslope areas” i mentioned yesterday. There’s more in the pipeline up there over the next few days. Another clipper there Sunday/Sunday night and then maybe a weak disturbance wed/Thu
  19. ORH_wxman
    There’s def some big hits on the EPS individual members but there’s plenty of northing too and a few rain events as well. Hopefully that threat becomes a bit more coherent.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Wow nice. Maybe a quarter inch in Holliston. We got one of the thinnest parts of the band…typical.
  21. ORH_wxman
    That’s like an hour in this winter. Beggars can’t be choosers.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the band looks nice but it’s moving. Was thinking a few spots may get 2” but that looks like a heavy lift pike south. Looks a little healthier up north of rt 2.
  23. ORH_wxman
    The problem is mechanics in the flow. It’s a rounded trough base and fast flow. That is plenty to “keep it from coming north”. If we can sharpen the shortwave with a slightly stronger vort, then that’s one way, but otherwise most of us are prob just getting some flakes and maybe a dusting. I’d def keep an eye on it down in southern zones though.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Good thing the snow tonight isn’t about 4-5 hours earlier. That would’ve been a disaster for evening commute. It’s not a lot of snow but it looks like it could rip for an hour or two which will def mess up the roads.
  25. ORH_wxman
    It’s got steady light snow at least into southern half of CT. It does have measurable up into MA but a bit more skeptical of that actually being more than just flurries or a few snow showers. If it ticks north again, then it would be worthy of a deeper look.
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