ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Certainly S of pike looks like they may be in business. Not sure about right near the pike around here yet
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Nice band for CT right now
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The pope predicted this to be a rainstorm.
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He was forecasting no confluence 2 days ago.
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I don’t think it’s going to end up well here. 00z hrrr trended worse for the second straight run after improving between 18z and 22z. Just about ready to throw in the towel here on anything over 6”. CT/RI/SE MA still look ok but these flatter runs are robbing dynamics too so even the places that still get hit aren’t get hit quite as hard as when we see the more dynamic/north solutions.
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There were no smoking guns…some could say Ukie but we’ve seen it be an outlier a bunch of times before and just get embarrassed. Pretty hard to go against a strong non-Ukie model consensus less than 48h before an event. That’s really short lead time these days. It’s not like it was 72-84 hours out
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Needs to gain a little more latitude. I’m not loving the look at the moment. We need to see those heavier echoes in N KY break through a little more…right now the northern extent of them is pretty static…they’re trying to push N a little further east near S OH…next 2 hours we’ll know
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23z HRRR and RAP both regressed back south a small tick. We await 00z
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Don’t do ptype…those maps take forever (and I agree it’s annoying that they do). Do 3-hr QPF or total QPF or other maps like the 500 vort maps.
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I think 20-25 miles is fair game. Keep in mind though that the change in outcome is not linear…with each bump north, QPF will non-linearly increase because the dynamics drastically improve with these further north solutions with a little more northern stream interaction.
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Dude, it’s on this part of the menu…it’s been out for like 5 min
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I think the place is want recon for this storm is up in the Great Lakes because that will tell us if the northern stream is trying to get enough subtle interaction to crush us….that’s where the differences have been. @Typhoon Tip mentioned this earlier as well and I agree it’s the northern stream being the key player. Not saying the southern downstream ridging isn’t important, but the northern stream evolution is what gives the room for the downstream ridging to amplify.
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Yeah 18z euro is slightly better but we hope that’s not the final solution. But glad the trend stopped.
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I’m expecting it to be putrid again, but since the euro does have the advantage of post-18z data assimilation, if it does come north, that’s a good sign.
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If we get big rainfall totals into those 5-6 border counties in SE OH, then it’s game on for the pike-south crew…and even Rt 2 is looking better in that scenario. If the heavy rain mostly stays SE of those counties, then my area is in trouble and perhaps even N CT. We don’t just want to see the radar echoes get there, we want to see like a solid 0.50”+ of QPF
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The funny part is like even 5 years ago we were saying “remember we used to get more paste jobs?”
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18z was the flattest run of both rap and hrrr. They’ve come north since then but for the pike region, we want to see one more decent tick of like 10-15 miles to feel confident.
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It’s been warm here the past few years…so that hurts enough. All the cold has been other side of globe or over the western US/Plains. But even when we’ve had good airmasses, they haven’t held in with good high pressure. We keep getting bad highs that slide well east.
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We want to see it between 8-12 tonight. It wouldn’t be happening now.
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No you want to see solid precip creeping into the border counties of Ohio with WV. Doesn’t even need to be well into the state, but if it is, then we’re def getting destroyed.
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Doesn't help us a whole lot out east this run, but I'm hoping this translates as we get closer...it was noticeable back in PA.
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21z RAP coming in with a solid bump NW so far through 12 hours compared to 20z.
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Yeah I've been expecting S trends but these aren't as bad as I was thinking....that's still a big fronto sig from like HFD/Kevin over to BOS....the trends are concerning, but there's def still a good banding potential there on that run.
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I actually thought the 18z RGEM would be a lot worse.... Haven't seen any major moves on the 20z HRRR/RAP. 19z looked a little better than 18z, but 20z is pretty much the same...might have been just a shade better on the HRRR but we're talking such small differences.
