ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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There’s still like 3 days for figure QPF but I think someone in a band will do really well with this bumping up against the confluence. Where it’s cold over the interior, you’re gonna have to watch ratios too if we get a crosshair sig…someone could get a foot from like 0.80” of QPF if they’re going 15 to 1.
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Coastal areas might be more like 5-8”.
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May need to watch for a CF…esp during the first half of the event.
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GGEM still kind of clueless but not as much as 12z. At least it gets measurable snow to the pike this run.
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Man that GFS run gets a tiny bit of partial phase action late in the game which just nukes almost all of SNE
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Airmass has steadily improved as we get closer. Not used to seeing that the last two winters.
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Agreed. It’s friggin’ cold too. It’s like -10 to -12c at 850 and 26F at BDL when it starts snowing Tuesday morning at the end of the run…lol
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Yeah if we can get a little bit of partial phasing late in the game that a few of these solutions have shown, it will help tilt that best fronto band a bit more NE to SW instead of ENE to WSW. That would likely get a larger portion of SNE into the max snowfall zone.
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Yeah if metfan can squeeze an advisory snowfall out of this then that bodes extremely well for the SW CT crew.
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It’s a good sign that we’re getting oscillations now in the past few cycles…not a discernible trend. It def could still trend but usually when you start oscillating it means the trends are probably not going to be steep.
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Now out to the end of the run at 90h…it’s def south of 12z
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18z euro looks a tad south of 12z through 78h. Not totally shocking given the 12z eps.
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Yeah I’m about ready to toss anything well south. I could still see N of pike getting only a moderate event from a system further south but it’s becoming less likely. I still think the zone with the most wiggle room is prob your area down to N CT around Kevin. I think central and south-central CT is in decent shape too but a N tick could make it a sloppier event with maybe a longer wait for the snow there.
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Outliers are converging
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That’s a fat PV to the north. It’s not going to rip inland with that setup. There’s def a northern limit. The goal posts are prob like dendrite to south coast right now for the meat of the snow.
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I think eventually (esp interior) but the first 2-4 hours might be pasty.
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Thought eps would be more zonked. I’d feel really good from Ray to N CT right now. But both MHT region and S CT are still in line for at least plowable…we’ll see.
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Ukie still a meat grinder job. But it was def less of a meat grinder than 00z run. 00z was a clean whiff and 12z is a scraper.
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Yes it was the same system. It just had a couple vort pulses but it was all part of the same ULL
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That’s a big jump on the last frame…esp looking at the isobars in the gulf of maine
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In your hood? Prob Dec 2019…I can’t remember if you got a bit skunked in the Feb 1-2, 2021 storm…and I know you were way too far west for Jan 2022
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
ORH_wxman replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
16th has clipper/little critter potential that @Typhoon Tip and I have been referring to the last day or so. Pretty vigorous northern stream s/w…if we can track that in the vicinity of LI then look out for a solid stripe of snow over SNE/CNE. -
2013 might be #2 all time in CT behind 1888. What a ridiculous coverage of 25”+.
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I think there’s still a lot more uncertainty in this system than many of us (including myself) are giving it credit for. That’s a huge gap between models inside of 100 hours. My gut still says this will not be south but you can’t completely ignore the southern solutions. I’d say you can probably toss the total whiffs but you may need to entertain the possibility we get something a bit more sheared ala the 12z NAM.
