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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    It’s a very sheared shortwave. Almost certainly won’t end up verifying because it’s a razors edge solution where it’s in the perfect spot not to amplify into anything more substantial.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Ukie stops at 144 on the freebies but it has a lot of similarities to the GFS.
  3. ORH_wxman
    I don’t have a lot of hope for this system in SNE mostly because of the marginal antecedent airmass (been saying this for days about 2/13), but there’s some sneaky upside if we’re able to thread the needle…very dynamic look.
  4. ORH_wxman
    The best PVA and energy on these 12z solutions is at the base of the southern stream trough so even on these solutions that initially run things well NW, they keep trying to crash everything SE as the system encounters a lot of compression in the flow to the east. GGEM went wild too late in the event after having the primary near ROC, though it was mostly too late for SNE outside of a few inches in the pike region northeastward….but Maine gets epically destroyed. Lol
  5. ORH_wxman
    The snowfall distribution is kind of similar but the evolution is definitely not.
  6. ORH_wxman
    25-burger for Ray on the GFS
  7. ORH_wxman
    GFS does get crunched a bit at the last second to keep it a big paste job N of pike and inland but if that goes further north, it’s almost an inland runner.
  8. ORH_wxman
    GFS is gonna be warm and zonked.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Icon doesn’t phase but it’s still a hugger. Big hit for CNE. SNE does get some snow but not warning snow until you’re north of the pike.
  10. ORH_wxman
    The icon is just fundamentally different than other guidance outside of the Ukie. It completely separates the northern and southern streams. Only ICON and 00z Ukie are doing this. It’s a plausible solution but you’d want to see more support for it.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Can’t keep them down for long. 12z ICON coming out slow today.
  12. ORH_wxman
    I don’t really follow the ICON that much. Its a bit noisy for my liking. I treat it like the other JV models. It’s prob better than the NAVGEM and JMA and those types, but I’d never weight it more than the GGEM or Ukie. It mostly has any use at all because it comes out early so sometimes we can get a better sense of what the gee tal model trends will be on that particular cycle.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yeah agreed. Faster means we’re getting better phasing with the initial northern stream shortwave which produces those northwest scenarios. We even had a run or two of a pure cutter on the GGEM a couple days ago. Slower means less phasing or at least more delayed phasing even if it’s partial and a further south solution.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yesterday most people were thinking it would get crunched SE. Now a whole bunch of people yelling congrats to dendrite and powderfreak. Lot of minds on tilt these days. It could honestly go either direction.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yep. Not a good way to look at it yet. A bunch of people would be crushed if we could see another 12 hours.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Maybe. It’s an unmanned firehose look though. There’s literally huge solutions for almost anyone in New England. 2/13 is mostly gravy imho anyway never expected much out of this but it has a legit chance.
  17. ORH_wxman
    06z eps has a solution for everyone
  18. ORH_wxman
    They retrograde the GOA/Aleutian low nicely and go strong -AO/-NAO in pulses which is nice too see. @Typhoon Tip likes to see it oscillate a bit on magnitude since that is where storminess is most likely.
  19. ORH_wxman
    A nice aspect of todays ensemble runs (both GEFS and EPS) is we’re seeing the GOA low retrograding back west at the end of the run. This is something @brooklynwx99 and I were pondering the last couple days. He had mentioned that it should theoretically retreat given the PAC jet weakening. It’s good to see guidance trying to pick up on that. A window longer than 7-10 days would substantially increase the chances of hitting on a major storm threat.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Not at all. Solutions all over the map including some huge hits.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Aside from the 2/13 threat which is precarious, I do really like the look afterwards in the 2/15-2/20 range. Really poleward ridge with cold antecedent airmass over much of the eastern half of the country. Good setup for something higher end.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that’s squashed. Ridge axis is decently west though so certainly room for it to improve. Gonna either need more phasing with northern stream or more lagging. This run was the sweet spot to basically crush the whole thing south.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Yeah but it prob had a moisture feed from further south once the storm started developing a legit warm conveyor.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Southern stream is def lagging northern stream so far on this euro run at 120h
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah you can get close, but you never see like a 45-50” total from any of those 18-24 hour storms. It’s always a stalled monster like ‘78, or 1888 or Feb ‘69 or Dec 1992 (higher terrain). That’s why I mentioned to Ray that the “cap” on a shorter duration storm seems to be in that 3 foot range.
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