ORH_wxman

18z GEFS still has a decent spread but there’s a surprising number of members that never get the storm to our latitude

Tons of preemptive cope and reverse psychology. We know the drill by now. I’ll ask people to keep this thread cleaner though. Keep the focus on this system and not personal depression on how this winter is going. Everyone already knows how bad it’s been south of the pike.

More threads are better. Super threads honestly suck because you have to Wade through so much crap sometimes. This thread is completely fine. Unless you were under the delusion that it was going to be all snow in your backyard, it’s a thread that is seeing increased support for some sort of system. There are likely to be plenty of people on this forum who see good snow from this. It happens to favor CNE/NNE right now…which is what the antecedent airmass has suggested for quite some time. For SNE outside of the higher terrain north of the pike, it’s always been a thread the needle system for big snow.

Yeah but most expected winter to suck in December during a potent El Niño. We need a scapegoat for Jan/Feb when El Niños typically go gangbusters.

Yeah I’ve never liked this threat for our area…posted days ago I didn’t like the airmass….eps still has plenty of decent members but the mean is def headed north and it makes some sense if we’re not getting a good area of confluence in Quebec. We need to time everything nearly perfectly to get something big.

EPS looks like crap until you get up around dendrite

Yep. You aren’t getting double digit worthy QPF from that look. Not much dynamics either. Im not very optimistic for SNE in this system, but it’s not because of a euro solution. Euro is one a million different versions that can end in not much.

It’s a very sheared shortwave. Almost certainly won’t end up verifying because it’s a razors edge solution where it’s in the perfect spot not to amplify into anything more substantial.

Ukie stops at 144 on the freebies but it has a lot of similarities to the GFS.

I don’t have a lot of hope for this system in SNE mostly because of the marginal antecedent airmass (been saying this for days about 2/13), but there’s some sneaky upside if we’re able to thread the needle…very dynamic look.

The best PVA and energy on these 12z solutions is at the base of the southern stream trough so even on these solutions that initially run things well NW, they keep trying to crash everything SE as the system encounters a lot of compression in the flow to the east. GGEM went wild too late in the event after having the primary near ROC, though it was mostly too late for SNE outside of a few inches in the pike region northeastward….but Maine gets epically destroyed. Lol

The snowfall distribution is kind of similar but the evolution is definitely not.

25-burger for Ray on the GFS

GFS does get crunched a bit at the last second to keep it a big paste job N of pike and inland but if that goes further north, it’s almost an inland runner.

GFS is gonna be warm and zonked.

Icon doesn’t phase but it’s still a hugger. Big hit for CNE. SNE does get some snow but not warning snow until you’re north of the pike.

The icon is just fundamentally different than other guidance outside of the Ukie. It completely separates the northern and southern streams. Only ICON and 00z Ukie are doing this. It’s a plausible solution but you’d want to see more support for it.

Can’t keep them down for long. 12z ICON coming out slow today.

I don’t really follow the ICON that much. Its a bit noisy for my liking. I treat it like the other JV models. It’s prob better than the NAVGEM and JMA and those types, but I’d never weight it more than the GGEM or Ukie. It mostly has any use at all because it comes out early so sometimes we can get a better sense of what the gee tal model trends will be on that particular cycle.

Yeah agreed. Faster means we’re getting better phasing with the initial northern stream shortwave which produces those northwest scenarios. We even had a run or two of a pure cutter on the GGEM a couple days ago. Slower means less phasing or at least more delayed phasing even if it’s partial and a further south solution.

Yesterday most people were thinking it would get crunched SE. Now a whole bunch of people yelling congrats to dendrite and powderfreak. Lot of minds on tilt these days. It could honestly go either direction.

Yep. Not a good way to look at it yet. A bunch of people would be crushed if we could see another 12 hours.

Maybe. It’s an unmanned firehose look though. There’s literally huge solutions for almost anyone in New England. 2/13 is mostly gravy imho anyway never expected much out of this but it has a legit chance.

06z eps has a solution for everyone

They retrograde the GOA/Aleutian low nicely and go strong -AO/-NAO in pulses which is nice too see. @Typhoon Tip likes to see it oscillate a bit on magnitude since that is where storminess is most likely.