ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Looks like about an inch of paste here so far. Still above freezing at 32.7
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Yeah the road goes all the way to the top and there’s houses on it. Not a lot but there are at least a handful above the 1300 foot line.
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Top of Asnebumskit hill in Paxton is over 1400 feet.
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Go up 31 to Paxton. You could go up to Princeton too but you’d prob need to go to WaWa lodge to find food in that town.
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You’re forgetting Theo’s and Paxton house of pizza.
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Paxton is around 1200 feet downtown near 31/56/122 intersection. Prob one of the best spot for this storm. Paxton house of pizza used to have decent pizza and subs but haven’t tried it in eons.
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Sticking to all surfaces. Hopefully can grab 2-3” with the thump, but we’ll see
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Massive quarters falling here now. Temp slowly ticking down to 33F even now.
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Yep. Not much thermal packing on this. Prob would wring out even more QPF.
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Was pelting for about 40 min but now big aggregates…still hearing a pinger or two bit transition almost complete.
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Yeah I think we want to see some snow reports by 8-9am in N CT to be optimistic about at least advisory snows. I was looping the meso guidance and pound time really needs to happen there between 9am-1pm…so if you’re still struggling to snow once into that time range, it’s prob not happening for accumulations.
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Not even sure it’s another MLK. I don’t think it looks that good up in MA either…I’d be surprised if anyone got more than 4-5” except maybe northern half of ORH county/southern monads and over to Berkshires.
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We’ll see if Kevin can flip in the next 1-2 hours. If not, that basically means nada for most of CT east of Litchfield county at least. Dual pol does look like snow north of Ginxy in N RI and extreme NE CT but hard to say if any of that is reaching the ground as snow or just melts prior to reaching sfc.
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NAM keeps it going into Monday afternoon for a chunk of the area.
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In this type of storm it really is. ORH county above 600-700 feet will be pretty easy. They will snow and amounts will be mostly determined by QPF. Lower down though is a disaster to try and forecast and it’s even worse down in CT where you have to consider midlevel temps being what they are.
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I’m not that optimistic on the front end thump. Feel like best shot at accums is the CCB stuff even if it’s not heavy…it will at least have a colder column. Easier to accumulate at 32-33 when 925 is like -2 or -3 than isothermal. But it’s admittedly a real tough call because heavy rates will trump a lot of issues. The problem is you can’t guarantee heavy rates. Can we get 0.2” per hour QPF? Maybe. But there’s a huge difference between that and like 0.08-0.12 per hour.
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It’s almost totally isothermal at 0C so the ptype maps are snow even if 850 temps are technically above 0C. But it’s prob like 0.2C or something. It’s close.
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I’d def feel more optimistic in CT than earlier. At least the northern half of the state with a little elevation. Hills could score well on the thump.
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Actually gets a hint of a CCB going.
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
ORH_wxman replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
You’re not gonna snow with a ULL going from Detroit to Pittsburgh then looping east and the back NW toward BUF. That’s an ugly upper air look. But that’s exotically far west compared to everything including the ensembles that just came out. -
Meh. Not impressed. Euro hasn’t had a good CCB in several runs now. Synoptically with the way the lows track, you’d think someone would do well between CNE and the pike for a while before the whole thing collapses SE but it’s just showing light precip in that zone. The conveyor circulations just never get linked up on this storm very well and I think it’s causing a lot of headaches on these solutions. I don’t know how real it is, but it’s a red flag for sure.
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I think you’d need to be north of the Merritt to have a shot. North of HFD even better. But it’s definitely going to be all about the rates/lift.
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Euro is thumpy in CT but man, that’s so close on the thermals. Could legit see 4” of wet cement or rain/white rain from that.
