ORH_wxman

Western areas of ORH county def get the Springfield channels but yeah, most of them are going to be tuning into Boston networks. Could be tough sledding in the valley in this type of system. Though you might have enough latitude to do a lot better than the valley further south of you.

Def underdone in N ORH county

Yes. I wasn’t saying WAA always is overdone, just more often than CCB stuff. Front end thumps can be awesome…but models will sometimes overdo it. 12/16/07 is often our favorite WAA event to talk about around here.

There’s usually good snow growth in the CCB stuff too because you are saturated well into the column whereas the WAA stuff can dryslot pretty quickly above 600-700mb. So I could see a lot of premature bust calls and then by Monday evening some areas will be thinking “oh I got another 3” today so it salvaged the storm to respectable”

I do think some of the CCB stuff could be undermodeled…esp Monday morning. Typically, models biases (and I believe this is still generally true even now in my experience) tend to overdo the WAA stuff and underdo the CCB stuff. But we’ll see. This is a weird system with all sorts of issues and there’s prob going to be a lot of nowcasting.

Omega trying to spike footballs if we get a pattern he explicitly said wasn’t going to happen would be the meme….

There’s a lot of bust potential in this system. Both directions too…though the downside bust potential is greater imho. But there’s also some scenarios where I could see a foot-plus over interior if things work out well.

The CCB in general just doesn’t look that good anywhere right now on a consistent basis. There’s been runs where it does but many where it doesn’t. So I think I’m remaining conservative until that part is ironed out.

Yeah the thump is the way for CT to do well. I’d be skeptical until you see the whites of their eyes, but it’s been trending better. Need rates to go isothermal.

12km looked like it ticked south. Barely gets any decent QPF north of MHT…but 3k def went north a bit.

CCB has looked pretty flaccid since the 06z euro came out. I guess hrrr was decent but that is clown range for that model.

12z NAM trying for isothermal paste bomb for several hours on the WAA thump well down into CT. That’s gonna be interesting to watch. The soundings are legit isothermal right near 0C.

Scorpion bowls on Winter Hill….

Yeah I’m not expecting much on the thump here so I’m staying fairly conservative. If guidance becomes more unanimous for a good thump then I’ll be more bullish on 6”+ here.

Front end thump will have a say in accums…if we can pound S/S+ for 3-4 hours late tomorrow before the CCB organizes, then we’d be much more likely to achieve 6-10 in the 495 belt. If it fizzles like the Euro shows and we just have to wait for CCB, then I’d go more like 3-6 here.

Boston had 16” of rain and 6.6” of snow at this point in ‘57-58 (similar type ENSO too). I think ‘78-79 was very wet too but not a ton of snow…what was terrible about that winter is it was cold too but the storms didn’t cooperate.

Yeah that’s prob pretty accurate. I have about 17.5” but I have at little bit of elevation and a little bit west of there being near the Hopkinton and Ashland lines.

Prob about 58-62” depending on local elevation. Saying “around 60 inches” won’t be too far off for any of these towns…might be closer to 65” once you get above 500 feet in Hopkinton There aren’t a lot of good coops around here unfortunately. The Milford one used to keep decent data but not pristine…I think they averaged like 57 which is close to my numbers and makes sense being a little lower given non-pristine data.

Yeah that seems decent. I think even on bad solutions you’ll limp to 2-3” of crapola but you have some upside if you can stay cold enough aloft. Your area is pretty tough. If I was forecasting still for Union I’d be telling the dude “yeah you are probably gonna need plows but it could be 2-3” or 8-9”….stay tuned”

yeah the screw zone crown is officially shifting from Ray down into S CT now. Esp with Ray’s area cleaning up relatively speaking this year (and that looks to continue in this storm) Maybe Scooter coming at runner-up for screwjie but his struggles are more recent since they had 1/29/22. S CT has really been garbage since Feb 2021.

ORH to AFN corridor is safest for warning snow along with Berkshires. Prob a little north too but you gotta worry about QPF diminishing once you start getting further up into monads and past Mitch’s area in S VT…though they could make up for it with good ratios…esp higher terrain. Next area is Ray down to 495 in east-central MA corridor. As long as precip rates don’t crap out, this area should do fairly well too. But not as safe as higher terrain just west. Then next area is like Kevin over to N RI to 128 belt up to sea coast Nh. Different reasons for uncertainty in those areas (Kevin it’s midlevel temps and 128 to seacoast it’s BL)

Also some of the cross-hair sigs are good in those bands. You could be rocking 15 to 1 ratios at 31-32F in that to make up for 7 to 1 ratios at beginning.

GFS is still performs worse than dial-up internet era Euro in coastals.

Positive snow depth change maps are gonna be awful over interior with any elevation. It gets reasonably cold at 925. Like-2 to -3.

Yeah if that doesn’t block off and rolls over our heads instead, it could be 60F. But I think it’s becoming more likely the block happens given the ensemble support which was more tepid on previous runs. But like you, not ready to 100% buy in yet.