ORH_wxman

Agreed. I think you’ll be fine assuming you grab more than 0.6-0.7 of QPF. But if it’s intermittent crap that eventually gets you to 0.5 then it’s prob just a couple of inches of mashed potato slop. I do like the midlevel track on a lot of these runs so I’m cautiously optimistic that we’ll get a nice period of moderate to heavy snow over the interior.

Ok that’s funny on the 12z GFS

Not a lot of confidence in 12z guidance…except maybe ORH county/Berks doing pretty well. Otherwise there’s all sorts of issues elsewhere (precip cutoff to the north and ptype issues south and east).

Yes you are correct…it didn’t have the room to amplify because of the 1/24 storm (that’s why Scooter was throwing furniture in his basement when that 1/24 storm amplified to hit us) and the ridge was already a bit too far east….or so we thought at the time.

I feel like a lot of people memory-holed the late 1990s…that was a sneaky awful stretch if you like snow and cold. Anyways, if I can grab back to back 20”+ months (January starting to look like it might get there) with maybe one decent event in March, it would be hard to call this winter a total ratter. The warmth has sucked but it’s been active with plenty to track.

Ran that one from my basement. Just destroyed by a paste bomb on NAM. No power for days.

Yep. I think Tip is correct it’s always been there to some extent…it’s just gotten worse. Anyways, I digress. I agree with Tip that there is some “interesting” potential from 1/30ish to the first week of February. It’s not favored, but some of these extremely meridional solutions with potent shortwaves riding down the east side of that ridge (almost a pseudo omega block) can blow up with little warning. They aren’t necessarily events that you track from a full week out. Partially because the source of said shortwaves are basically in a data-void area…or at least in an area where satellite data gets very distorted due to the very low tropopause up near the pole. These aren’t originating out in the pacific like usual.

Yep. It has gotten indisputably worse too over the years. Everything is eithe “MECS/HECS or bust” or “new climate is like DC” or “winter is over, we’re kicking the can again on the pattern change” The hilarious part is you to ORH might end up with a 30 inch month of January if this next storm produces warning snowfall.

Euro was on crack.

I’d feel pretty good for ORH county getting decent snow….495 belt is prob decent as well but a bit more uncertain due to elevation not being as high. Kevins area is also a bit more uncertain but due to midlevel temps rather than elevation.

Yeah it was my first winter back up here after living in Texas from age 2 to 7 and I remember seeing ads for Watatic that fall even as an elementary school kid who didn’t ski yet…the dude actually put ads out he was so confident and then got the shaft, lol. I wonder why they never let him reopen. It probably would have been good for the area to have another ski area. I always wondered if Wa-Wa did some “influencing” to keep them closed.

I was living in Holden in 1988 when they almost reopened. Some dude bought the place and was ready to open it but he never got the permits and it just slowly got engulfed by the wilderness since then.

Yeah it briefly kisses there…here’s 75-78-81 hours. You can see how it wobbles over C/N CT before collapsing by 81 hours.

Decent event for interior on 18z euro though the midlevels are very marginal early on in CT before they crash. It would still be nice to actually link the WCB and CCB stuff…the fact they they are separated like that on all these runs today is partially responsible for the lower jackpot totals now…instead of 12-16 it’s like 6-9”

A lot of guidance is trending that way. It’s pretty interesting because you don’t normally see that type of pattern in early February. Like you said, usually March or April….but in early February, there’s enough cold around that you could really score big from one of those bowlers. Who knows, maybe something breaks our way.

Woodshed Scooter….we beast. His area is paying for being like 200% of climo between 2003-2019.

Keene is pretty far west almost in the valley. Even the parts of Keene that are above 1000 feet still feel the effect of the mountains to the east. Where he is in Bradford is to the east of the highest terrain so he will do well in most events. You can see on the topo map below where he is to the east of the highest terrain and then look down southwest where Keene is to the west of it.

Lol i don’t think it matters either way. Lost pack in any areas less than 4-5” AWT. Hopefully replenish Sunday/Monday.

Yeah i mentioned it earlier….it actually had nice midlevel track with H7 going over ACK area…I think it was a little faster which hurts its ability to really draw in more moisture off Atlantic but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a replica of that track produce a bit more on future runs.

We got to 52 here though it’s fallen back to 48 now and that’s all she wrote. Today was the day to try and sneak it in…the euro and others touting 60+ for tomorrow were always a pipe dream with that setup to our northeast.

EPS looks like GEFS too

EPS are not very exciting either. The mean is fairly close to the OP except less for the Cape and SE areas.

Synoptically it really wasn’t that bad of a solution. It’s not going to drop 12”+ on that look but a 5-8” type event would be pretty consistent with how it looked. Id look for stronger vort going forward which may help in strengthening the storm more rapidly once south of us.

Disorganized mess on the QPF. Midlevel tracks are really nice though…so I don’t hate that part. Wish the vort was a bit stronger in the upper air which I think would help get that “curl” we want to really get it to go to town

Euro looks more robust with shortwave at 60h compared to 06z but the confluence is a little stronger as well.