ORH_wxman

Yeah the 00z run had us matching the EPS more but the 06z and 12z runs trended back to being cold while the rest of the country furnaces. I still think it’s probably wrong, but one thing to keep an eye on is a potential block up near the eastern Beaufort sea to the pole…it’s solidly further east than your normal EPO block but in this case, it acts somewhat similar except instead of the cold dumping into the Canadian prairies and plains, it is further east and comes almost straight down east of Hudson Bay and into Quebec and New England.

Ukie looks pretty similar to GEFS. Maybe a bit south.

Let’s split the difference between that and the GFS.

GGEM looks a lot flatter than GFS through 108h.

00z OP was pretty zonked. Ensmebles were quite a bit south of the OP though.

It might be. We don’t know yet. Further north is favored right now but it could still produce where you are. We wait and see on model trends over the next couple days.

That +PNA/-EPO combo has been absent (outside of very transient periods) since that late Dec ‘17/early Jan ‘18 stretch. It’s what fueled the cold in those 2013-2015 years too. We’ve been cold in -PNA patterns plenty of times in the past but in the past 5-6 years they’ve been more hostile since we haven’t had the type of blocking needed and also the type of -PNA we’ve had is different from those 2007-2011 -PNA patterns. We’ve seen these large phases troughs that go deep into the southwest. They aren’t split flow or the further north like in years such as 2008-09 when we lot of the -PNA troughs were centered over BC and the PAC NW. These more recent winters have seen them dig so far southwest and when they do without split flow, it produces monster ridges in the east.

Aren’t you going up north soon? Why would you want rain up there with a NY state cutter?

Yeah I wouldn’t call that warm…it was near normal on temps, maybe slightly AN. But certainly colder than the other years I listed.

My guess is nobody will be able to forecast cold winters very well even after we get a few…the biggest reason is the AO/NAO has been largely stochastic. Nobody has been able to forecast them with any real skill months ahead. Maybe if there’s a wholesale change in the Pacific that favors +PNA/-EPO ridges like the 2013-2015 years then maybe…

We’ve had some warm and snowy winters recently…2020-21, 2016-17, 2012-13 were all “warm” and snowy around here. They still had long stretches of snow cover though. Ironically, our coldest winter in the past 7 years was a bit BN for snow which was 2018-19.

The reason he got 5-posted was he did this every year even 10 years ago when everyone was getting buried. Calling for the same thing over and over again provided zero value. Even went out of his way this year to confidently call 1/7 a miss. Again…zero value.

I think he’s still below 10”. He’s gonna need several good sized storms…esp if 1/29-30 is a no-go there. Things can happens fast in any favorable pattern but there’s never any guarantees. Sometimes you get 2-3 double digit storms in a 2 week period but other times you might just get one storm or maybe you get two smaller ones or maybe you get skunked despite a good look.

The favored areas are prob pretty similar. This can still keep trending warm too though. But it equally could trend back colder, so we’ll see. But I’d feel pretty good in CNE right now and cautiously optimistic over northern interior SNE.

Looks excellent for CNE and perhaps into interior SNE though more precarious further south.

That’s def a +PNA. Looks where the anomalies are….low anomalies S of the Aleutians and higher anomalies in western Canada. It’s split flow though which is why we see the lower height anomalies in California and the southwest. That can be a great pattern for us if there’s cold around but we’d prob want to sharpen the ridge a little more to lower the heights over the northeast.

The problem is when pack depth is too thin, it’s a lot easier to warm it up, even when it’s a lot of ice. You start getting dark leaves, grass blades, twigs and other things that protrude out of it which really accelerates it. Hopefully we build an actual deep pack for a few weeks at some point, but I’m just hoping for a couple big dogs at this point. This recent stretch has been nice with snow OTG. Today was the first time since 1/14 I hit freezing.

Yeah 2-3 inches won’t survive even if we wedge in the 37-42 degree range. I think areas deeper inland with 4-6” have a decent chance of keeping it if we stay wedged though and don’t torch 50s/60s. But it may not be gone long if Sunday pans out. Did you see the GFS continuing the model war? Lol…literally opposite of EPS. Even the GEFS are trending toward those OP runs.

You might want to tone it down or take a time out....we give leeway here but you're on the line with abusive behavior.

GFS essentially turns the western ridge into a temporary block so it doesn't move for a few days...big difference vs other guidance. I won't believe it though until there's better agreement.

There are massive differences on the GFS and other guidance post-1/30 too....GFS really keeps the flow super amped and meridional while the GGEM and Euro really flatten out that western ridge and just push the whole thing east. The differences in sensible wx during the first week of February would be massive.

Didn't take much for a GGEM improvement though...low bar...it was super flat at 00z....I'd like to see it amp up more in the next couple cycles.

Def an improvement on the GFS from previous runs. Still not quite enough for a big event in SNE but it does get advisory snows into CT/RI and maybe even low end warning for SW CT. Not a bad spot 6 days out.

This post reminds me of weenies years ago who would say the night before a storm "I'm already down to 25 degrees and the NAM said it would be 28F....this going to be a cold bust!!!", only for it not to matter because boundary layer mixing doesn't really affect anything happening aloft.