ORH_wxman

It def overperformed for most of RI/SE MA...solid advisory snow amounts when a lot of forecasts were 1-2" or 1-3"

Must be hammering in Scooter-land right now

Prob between 4-5pm there...doubt you tack on much...maybe a few tenths or half an inch.

Mix line has sped up in the past 30 min or so....we'll see if ti temporarily slows again before it makes it's pike push

This event is pretty close to being something big, but the two piece of PV just aren't quite separated enough...so it gets crunched just south. Gonna be a tease in the end....might be some light snow amounts, especially for southern areas, but unlikely anyone gets warning snowfall.

A lot of guidance has some weak isentropic lift Thursday night, so it's possible there is some light snow Thursday evening/overnight. Doesn't look like anything plowable, but a coating to an inch of pure blower feathers wouldn't be a total shock.

Mix is about 6-8 miles south of KBOX radar it looks like

RGEM and ICON are mildly interesting…esp if you’re on the south coast. But would be nice to see one of the non-GGEM globals show more interest.

Excellent snow growth….I cleared the car off to drive my kids to school so everything on the car is in the past 2 hours. Stacking up quickly now.

Yeah I mentioned earlier that this zone might be a localized jackpot with some 5-6" lollis potentially...it's just pounding dendrites.

Poundtown in this stuff....looks really good over from about Ginxy to Scooter....some really nice returns. Even just north of those where I am, it's really coming down nicely with good snow growth.

Should be a nice several hours coming over central/eastern areas....good steady snowfall and the radar has filled in pretty nicely

See, I'm viewing it less skillful than that on snowfall...I'm not sure there's much on a seasonal forecast level....I'm talking just snow, not temp forecasts where at least some skill has been demonstrated by good LR forecasters. The best teams in sports can win 70% of the time or so....so there's a clear skill element there. Nobody can forecast seasonal snowfall even close to that level of skill.

Sure, but whats the mechanism and why should we believe that it is predictable and not just like playing roulette? You win some and lose some....but is there any skill involved? Like if we miss 3 KUs by a hair, was that "skill" or not? OR what if we don't sniff anything big for the next month and then get a 35-40" juggernaut dumped on our head February 22nd? Was the crappy snow forecast a good one, but they got unlucky that a HECS happened late in the season to make verification look bad? The advantage gambler in me always tries to parse out what was skilled vs random noise....and I haven't seen evidence to the former on seasonal snowfall forecasts around here.

There is a zero percent chance to forecast whether PV lobes are going to phase or not when making forecasts 2 months out. I'm not saying this to pick on you....but I think people take the idea too seriously that seasonal snowfall forecasts in New England can be skillfully predicted to anything closer than about a 20-30 inch range. I applaud people for trying, but it's so much harder than temperatures because there are like a thousand more variables for snowfall than forecasting temps.

central and N RI getting hammered right now....they might be a local jack.

Radar has filled in decent;y over the past hour

He might get the QPF jackpot....someone NW of him will prob have 20 to 1 feathers for a while to get an official snowfall jackpot, but Ray's area might get 10 to 1 only a little less snowfall with more QPF. Might have to watch for CF enhancement aorund there later. Very tight CF sets up in NE MA today.

Yeah I could see it coming back a bit....but I think anything sizeable is probably off the table.

About 1" here.....HRRR bullish for the pike/495 region back to ORH and up to near Ray....hoping to grab at least another 2" here prior to mixing around 18-19z.

Yes. It’s pretty typical El Niño climo for December to be warm and February to be cold. Doesn’t always work of course but it’s a pretty strong correlation.

It comes across as disingenuous trolling because we know your historical weather preferences from many years of previous posting. I’m going to guess pretty much the entire forum doesn’t actually believe you have an emotional investment for 1-2” of snow and then 37 and rain instead of 3-5” of snow.

The warm layer is pretty marginal so I could see it going either way in that 128-495 zone.

Def trying way too hard on this one…

Yeah it’s prob the best PAC look since then. But it still needs to verify and of course the big question is how long would such a look last? In 2015 it was almost a standing wave for 3-4 weeks with a brief break during the Feb 7-9 event where we got lucky anyway and Boston got 2 feet of snow when the rest of the CONUS was an utter furnace. But regardless, it’s nice to see a great PAC look even show up on guidance.