ORH_wxman

Yeah I had almost 4" in 45 minutes (I think it was like 3.7 or something) with multiple flashes and rumbles plus we went from like 31-32F at the onset to teens within a cvouple hours. True arctic WINDEX event on 'roids.

1/28/10 was the one you're prob thinking of. That was an epic setup. We're not repeating that since winds are too much westerly component in this one, but there def could be some pretty good squalls.

Save for this past week when we had a brief stall near phase 2/3, we've been just ripping along on the RMM plots for the MJO, and the waves have been high amplitude too since the week of Xmas....so yeah, that isn't typically going to be associated with weeks-long pattern stagnation. You want weak MJO or almost none at all and that's when we can get those standing wave type patterns that lock in. OR we get lucky with blocking which mitigates other more hostile factors. We lose the blocking after the 1/20 threat though.

That warmup has been advertised fairly well by ensembles. It doesn’t look like a weeks-long ordeal though since the PNA ridge out west is rapidly rebuilding by the end of the month…so I think that bodes well for more threats in early February. But we’ll see. There’s always nuances we can’t see at this range. Even in milder patterns, you grab a well-timed Scooter high over Quebec and you can grab a nice snow event. Vice-versa, we can still get ugly cutters in favorable longwave patterns.

Ensembles have it…tho obviously tons of spread

Better on eps

Euro def looks like a powderkeg setup next week. The ingredients are there, it’s just a matter of timing the vorts within the PV lobe.

I feel like that’s occurring across all guidance but you are right it’s more unusual for the Euro to have decent sized swings inside of D5. This is a system huge problem on model guidance for some reason.

Can’t complain about that move by the Euro. Solid improvement.

GEFS remain pretty bullish

There’s a separate thread for the midweek storm.

GFs is starting sniff out 1/20 a bit more aggressively this run. Good PV lobe separating from the main vortex.

Yep. Don’t see any major red flags at the moment other than compression but the synoptics are working in our favor for once to overcome a negative variable. Hopefully we can bring this one home in the next few cycles.

That’s a bold call…not sure I’d have the guts to go the over on a 15-day prog of 0F.

Yeah the longwave synoptics aren’t favorable for a wide right whiff…it’s all about how much compression there is to keep it from moving further west. The compression is admittedly strong but we’ve seen these come back west pretty strongly before.

Right but which guidance is lacking the more correct data? Normally you’d toss the outlier but in the case of the Euro, its primary advantage is not processing data but rather initialization of it. So that begs the question…is the Euro data assimilation seeing something that is correct that the others aren’t seeing? Or maybe it’s just full of shit…at least we don’t have to wait that long to find out. This storm is going to be getting into D4 now.

It’s def weird for the euro to be OTS like that compared to all the other more amped guidance. Guess we’ll see how 12z responds. I’d expect the euro to at least partially bite at 12z if we’re gonna have a significant system.

06z EPS was no help. Further SE than 00z run

Yeah this is the type of storm where if it comes close, you’re more worried about midlevels versus low levels. Let’s lay down some good pack in this one in preparation for the 1/20 HECS.

00z eps still had some nice hits though they were certainly more tame than the 18z eps. 06z eps come out in about 20-25 min

Having the EPS solidly NW of the OP is kind of a big tell imho. I think there’s a good chance we’ll least see something from this system even if it’s not a direct major hit…though that is certainly still on the table too.

18z EPS a nice bump NW. Lot of good hits in there

We had 20” in ORH in ‘93 storm but it was a local max. Very few spots in New England even got 2 feet. The largest area of 2 feet in New England is almost certainly Feb ‘69 and Feb ‘13 was pretty impressive too. I’d say 2013 even outdid 1978 in New England as a whole for aerial coverage of 24”+. If we want to include March 1888 then that is right up there with Feb ‘69.

Jan 2015 blizzard didn’t do much over the rest of the northeast outside of central/eastern New England and Long Island.

Don’t fear the sleet…I’d take half a foot of thump and then an inch of sleet to solidify the pack for the cold week in the wake of that system. Not that it’s going to be the final solution so it’s all just fodder. EPS at 18z will be interesting to see if they come NW too. OP run was probably out to lunch given the ensembles were mostly NW of the OP run.