ORH_wxman

He might get the QPF jackpot....someone NW of him will prob have 20 to 1 feathers for a while to get an official snowfall jackpot, but Ray's area might get 10 to 1 only a little less snowfall with more QPF. Might have to watch for CF enhancement aorund there later. Very tight CF sets up in NE MA today.

Yeah I could see it coming back a bit....but I think anything sizeable is probably off the table.

About 1" here.....HRRR bullish for the pike/495 region back to ORH and up to near Ray....hoping to grab at least another 2" here prior to mixing around 18-19z.

Yes. It’s pretty typical El Niño climo for December to be warm and February to be cold. Doesn’t always work of course but it’s a pretty strong correlation.

It comes across as disingenuous trolling because we know your historical weather preferences from many years of previous posting. I’m going to guess pretty much the entire forum doesn’t actually believe you have an emotional investment for 1-2” of snow and then 37 and rain instead of 3-5” of snow.

The warm layer is pretty marginal so I could see it going either way in that 128-495 zone.

Def trying way too hard on this one…

Yeah it’s prob the best PAC look since then. But it still needs to verify and of course the big question is how long would such a look last? In 2015 it was almost a standing wave for 3-4 weeks with a brief break during the Feb 7-9 event where we got lucky anyway and Boston got 2 feet of snow when the rest of the CONUS was an utter furnace. But regardless, it’s nice to see a great PAC look even show up on guidance.

Don’t worry about that. It’s actually not a bad thing on the more amped solutions because we get a better WAA push of precip. So some of these more amped solutions are giving areas that change over more snow than the flatter solutions were because the lift and QPF is heavier.

It’s not really “slop” until you are closer to coast and SE MA. It’s quite cold lower down so it’s prob more like pixie dust sleet before the precip ends. But it’s several inches of powder snow before that. Precip is basically done when the furthest NW intrusion of warm air aloft happens.

Almost sounds like the early January 2005 ice storm in CT. We had warning criteria snow in ORH for that but just down to the south it was a lot of ZR. There was an elevation component to it too down there where some of the hill towns had almost a half inch of ice.

3k isn’t as warm as the 12k. Has a nice stripe of snow from like Danbury to Kevin to ORH to Ray.

Yeah sleet gets well into interior but that’s a good shot of snow before that happens. Thinking 3-5” with some spot 6”+ is a good call outside of 495….prob more like 2-4” for the 128 belt.

For the 1/19-20 threat it’s been status quo for the most part. There’s a few members still giving a big event but most of them are not. Lots of scrapers too with like 1-2”

If you’re looking for a pattern shakeup compared to the last couple of years, then root for the ensembles at the end of the month. This is the closest to a great pacific pattern we’ve had in a while. But good to remain skeptical until we’re closer. But that’s a look you want to see for big cold/snow threats.

My educated guess is it will break. We’ve had western troughs produce some ugly multi-year periods in the east before (1972-1974 or early 1950s).

We’ve been in a predominately western trough pattern for years now. Tomorrow’s system even has major southwest flow aloft ahead of it…it’s not a coastal storm aloft…only at the sfc. The vortmax goes through Erie, PA…that’s basically a SWFE. Heres the past two winters combined. That’s a bad upper air pattern for good storm tracks here. You throw in a bit of bad luck too when we happened to be favorable, and that’s how you get some ugly numbers.

Euro looked a touch better to me for 1/19 looping H5…still a light event verbatim but you can see how it could be more significant with some minor improvements. I don’t think a big dog is going to happen but you could still get a moderate event or even a solid warning event if improvements continue over the next few runs. The danger of course is you trend back worse and then you essentially have no event at all.

Nice stripe over the interior on the euro. Looks a bit like the GFS except maybe a little bit NW. I’d def have an advisory for at least west of 128 in SNE. You’re going to either get 3-5” of snow or get like 2-3” plus some ZR/IP. Either one is going to trigger an advisory. It actually might be more like 3-5” with a touch of ZR at the end with the increasing QPF before the warming aloft makes it inland.

Slight improvement on 12 GEFS for 1/19-20 but it’s not enough to move the needle much. Only the 12z GGEM has anything really close to a big hit this cycle so far. Looking unlikely we’ll get a major system out of that setup. Close but no cigar. Had the ingredients but just not quite enough separation on the two PV lobes.

I don’t think this explains our recent struggles. It hasn’t really been that warm offshore this year…we’ve had warmer in the past

More of a south coast special but that was really close to a big one. GFS shot eastward so no help from that model.

Nice little 495 jackpot.

The old saying “misery loves company” might be in play as an explanation. But anyways…I sort of get it. People become irrational in a scientific sense when things break a certain direction for longer than is typical. You see it in both directions too…when we keep ringing up triple 7s in good winters or even a few years in a row, the model discourse becomes way overly optimistic and then it becomes obscenely pessimistic when things are running snowless. For someone like me who is obsessed with numbers and statistics, I see it through that prism of statistical anomalies and not necessarily some underlying predictable outcome long before model guidance has a lot of skill to make a confident call….but I know many others don’t think like that. I still don’t quite understand wanting to bludgeon others for not joining the pity party though. I’ve seen some of that and it’s pathetic.

What’s always been strange to me is those who log into a forum to be miserable. Didn’t see nearly as much of that even in our shit winters back 10-15 years ago. I literally had to move like 30 posts into here because an entire page and a half of the january pattern thread was just bitching and you would have no idea what is actually happening over the next 2-3 weeks based on those posts.