ORH_wxman

I’d like to see stronger lift modeled to entertain more seriously a low end warning event. Seems like we could get a nice steady light to moderate snow for a while and I guess if snow growth is good enough then maybe we can get a stripe of 6-8” out of 0.44” of QPF or something like that…but I also think there’s a lot more paths to 2-4” of powder where radar returns are a bit inconsistent.

Nah, people would rather just bitch and do “woe is me” to the largest audience possible…so they do it in here instead of banter.

RGEM still pretty juiced. Really nice event up in Maine.

Forecast doesn’t look overly complicated. Prob go 3-5” for 495 to ORH hills down into interior CT…1-3” for SE MA/RI/SE CT except maybe NW RI. Maybe someone gets a little higher lolli from a surprise band but so far the lift doesn’t look all that prolific.

06z euro came in more robust too. Thinking 3-5” where it stays all snow (so prob interior SNE up into central and eastern CNE/NNE)

Gonna get the 7-10 split here

We haven’t seen a low set up way down there SW of the Aleutians in eons. It was prob 2015 the last time we had one setup there for more than just a fleeting moment. Nice to see it on guidance….that’s about as good as a pacific pattern as we can get. Maybe shift the ridge axis a couple hundred miles east if we’re nitpicking, but otherwise it’s what we’ll want to see showing up as we move forward.

Might really pick up soon there.

@CoastalWx, check out late in the EPS (GEFS also have the same look)….that’s 2015-ish? We’ll see if that look continues as we get closer

@HIPPYVALLEYabout to get croaked

There seems to be more late bloomers on the 12z GEFS. The mean has the low well east of us but a bunch of westward individual members keep popping near the BM. You can see it below at 138 hours the distribution looks pretty typical, but then fast forward 12 hours and you see all those late bloomers back there

Regional loop

Yeah you aren’t raining for long with 516 thicknesses.

06z EPS was decent too

Yeah that’s a substantially better look for 1/19-20 on 18z EPS.

That was a great storm. I had about 20” in that. That month was crazy.

Improvement on the euro but still not much of an event. But maybe 1-2” for many that run.

It actually does move into that position by the PV splitting…see the EPS image below….ideally that piece that goes southwest trends a bit further southwest to give us more room to amplify…I think that’s important, especially further south.

PV is actually getting a bit stretched. One piece breaks off and becomes a 50/50 low and the other gets pulled back SW and becomes a key player for 1/19-20. But yeah, you don’t want it over us or you get suppression. Ideally, you have it sitting over the 50/50 position or just west of it and waiting to block a cutter shortwave which turns it into a monster snowstorm coastal. In order to get the PV stuck in that position, usually a -NAO block is helpful which is why we often like them. But you obviously can have too much of a good thing sometimes.

Starts out in PA but it gets better as it heads east and the mesolow tries to form. Someone could pick up advisory snowfall if they get a little mesolow pivot…we’ll see if that develops or not but most likely spot would be NNE…can’t rule out a bit further south though for the beginning of the enhancement. Should at least be interesting to track.

18z OP GFS was a little better but still not much but the GEFS def ticked much better.

GFS wasn’t as enthused with 1/19-20 on 18z run but still really close. Verbatim like a 4-8” type event. What you want to look for in that event in future runs is the PV lobe being stretched far to the southwest so that it has room to amplify along the coast.

If people want to act like children and complain about every threat, they can do it elsewhere. There are still people who log on here to read about the meteorology and actual model discussion of a threat.

We haven’t had a GOA low almost all winter which is typical strong Nino.

It’s actually trended better since 00z but this forum has become an unreadable dumpster fire.