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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Yeah we haven’t had a winter (or even a weeks-long pattern) in a while where we kind of sit in a more favorable spot than the middle and western part of the country. We’ve frequently been the worst.
  2. ORH_wxman
    About time we do that anyway. Been enough seasons recently where it’s cold out in the plains and Rockies while we furnace.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Tomorrow is gonna be a Virga tease. SW CT looks the best for any accumulations.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Low level dry air is a major problem on the Friday setup. If we had less dry air, it prob wouldn’t be that hard to get a fluffy 2-5” event for a lot of the area but it’s gonna be tough to saturate. South coast looks the best right now for obvious reasons.
  5. ORH_wxman
    He won’t be using the 18z GFS OP run beyond 300h…that’s for sure. Maybe he will post the 00z run if it shows a torch pattern.
  6. ORH_wxman
    The SST argument is always really bizarre to me…esp in January. It has very little to do with the longwave pattern. It maybe cost the coastline a bit more snow in the 1/7 event but we’re talking on the margins. The SSTs offshore could’ve been 3C colder and December still would’ve been an abomination.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that was kind of funny. GFS is prob 1-2” pike region with maybe a little more south coast. Pretty similar to the BOX map. They might be a bit heavier on the cape than GFS.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Scooter is teetering like it’s early January 2013
  9. ORH_wxman
    Yeah we're not getting that mid-level WAA that we like to see for healthy lift. Notice how the 850 winds are still light out of the northwest. We'd like to see that turn more southerly. You can also see a bit of dry air there below about 700-750mb. Thats going to be an issue for sure in trying to get decent QPF into SNE. It's fighting that very dry air funneling down from the north
  10. ORH_wxman
    That was right near my 'hood on the NAM. You can see it's fighting some dry air though even in that sounding. IF the dry column can be overcome, there could be a pretty nice stripe of snowfall given the deep DGZ and cold sfc temps....very high ratios most likely unless the lift stays too high above the DGZ....but usually when the DGZ is that deep, you're getting pretty good growth regardless...as long as there's some half-decent omega in there.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Check out how deep this DGZ is on the 60 hour NAM sounding...that's the type of temp profile where you can get 6" on 0.25" of QPF if you can squeeze that much out of the atmosphere.
  12. ORH_wxman
    NAM is more amped at 12z....but still fighting the dry air. If we're able to overcome the low level dry air then there could be several inches of fluff because the sounding have the snow growth zone like 200-250mb deep....that's a massive DGZ.
  13. ORH_wxman
    I'd def keep an eye on Friday south of pike...I'm prob toast up here for more than a feather dusting but south coast peeps could easily get a few inches with a small bump north.
  14. ORH_wxman
    I don’t think a big dog is really on the table, but you could envision maybe something a little higher than an advisory event only south of the pike. If we get more NAM-esque trends in the future, you could see a path to a healthy warning event.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yeah but it was more because of significantly stronger dynamics rounding the trailing PV lobe really helping to pump up heights downstream and also keep the sfc baroclinic zone a bit closer
  16. ORH_wxman
    Ok it’s the clown range NAM but let’s see if other guidance at least partially follows it. Then that system gets more interesting.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Light snow falling with a “chalky coating” as Tip mentioned earlier. It is covering the glaze of ice which covered the snowfall from earlier this morning. At least it will look like winter for this colder stretch over the next week.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Scooter still doing his time in the woodshed this winter after his run of mimicking Stowe ended post-1/29/22.
  19. ORH_wxman
    High here was 28.8F....dropped back about a degree to 27.6F now. Everything glazed though hearing a few pingers in the past 15 min, so starting to cool aloft or at least maybe saturate the DGZ again.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Should flip all the way imminently....you can see it moving east
  21. ORH_wxman
    Pretty much all guidance has that high now...it's just a question of whether it presses down enough at the same time we're getting that low ejecting from the MS and TN valleys. I currently don't expect much of anything in SNE right now out of that setup, but it is something to keep an eye on. NNE could easily get out of the "torch period" unscathed if things break right.
  22. ORH_wxman
    You can see the mix line collapsing back east on CC now. Looks like it just went through Hartford and Springfield further south
  23. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I thought it would be more sleety than ZR given how marginal the warm layer is, but we have a solid glaze on everything...pretty sure at least 0.1" already. But it's possible that the drying aloft in the mid-levels (esp in the DGZ) helped it go to ZR quicker.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Don't overplay the trend here...it's pretty weak sauce still, but a period of light snow is looking more plausible.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Solid layer of ice on everything now. Crust on top of the snow.
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