ORH_wxman

He wasn't even posting about the cold tuck...he's posting about whether today's high will be 38F or 33F.

I'm not sold on a cold tuck for any of us in SNE later Wednesday, but it would def favor further northeast where the source is if it happens. I wouldn't look at today's temps as any predictor of what a cold tuck would do 60 hours from now.

ICON was close for next Sunday....gave S RI over to far SE MA advisory type snows.

That could be an issue with icing since aloft has warmed by then. Still a lot of light precip/drizzle around for that, so if you cold tuck into the upper 20s, that could get ugly.

That's for 14z which was 50 minutes ago....PSM was still only 21 at that point and MHT was 16F...it doesn't look that bad.

06z EPS is definitely more amped for next Monday than the 00z run....will be interesting to see if that trend is real....12z should be interesting and I'd like to see other guidance become more bullish.

Yeah if we got like a moderate 4-8/6-10 type event next Monday, that would for sure change the feel...it would put many above average for January.

I dunno, I could see either verifying....esp down in SNE....if I was further north up into S NH, I'd def fade the Euro.

Crazy how much warmer the Euro is for late week than other guidance....GFS/GGEM struggle to get it out of the 30s with the wedge. Euro goes 60s.

You're trying to time the southern stream to amplify enough while the northern stream presses just enough to get cold into here for next Sunday night/monday. Def threading the needle.

They bring the -EPO back. EPS seems to lag on that....looked like ti wanted to at the end, but it would take several more days.

GFS turns the central CONUS and Canada ridging into a psuedo block and allows a lot of meridional flow on the east side of it which allows those cold shots.

Yeah that pattern was kind of nuts. Beijing had their coldest december on record…PAC jet on ‘roids which gave that CONUS chinook.

Pretty much. Macro forecasting is typically easier because you don’t have to worry about smaller scale nuances that can’t be predicted in advance. Stuff like NAO blocks have proven time and again to be mostly stochastic.

NNE won’t lose any pack between now and 2/1. Remains to be seen how warm it gets beyond that….somewhere after the first few days of the month looks warm.

Spikes you Thursday. But N of pike is more precarious. Re-wedge happens Friday for anyone who spiked Thursday.

More like 2” or so. Possible we get more but that’s what euro showed.

GOM had a massive heat content increase years ago due to a weakening of the Labrador current. I remember reading about this in papers back like 10-15 years ago and it’s still ongoing. They had a similar thing happen in the 1940s I think where they then spiked really warm for about a decade period circa late 40s into mid 50s before reversing again. (Check out some of the warmth back then for MA/NH/ME) CC affecting the ocean currents is still obviously somewhat of a frontier in the literature but I suspect if CC helps in weakening the Labrador current, then you wouldn’t see the same reversal again. Of course, we could go all “Day After Tomorrow” and the whole North Atlantic gets less salty and we all abruptly freeze when the thermohaline circulation weakens.

I feel like top end high temps have been less frequent but the humidity has been higher. That’s fairly consistent though since it’s hard to get reach high end maximum temps with humid airmasses. You want dry airmasses.

The funny thing is I was going to say to Ray (and then subsequently forgot) is that CC warming would probably try to inch to mean position of the CF westward…which would help him. I don’t know if that’s actually the case, but from a conceptual standpoint it makes sense.

I dunno…it’s anecdotal to me to say “we’re mostly getting 17F south shore Coke line storms” with CC. Id honestly say the opposite, but that’s the beauty of anecdotes….we basically just tell our own story of obs. The truth would require doing an independent tally of these storms and the temps. Those frigid coke line storms happened with so much frequency years ago from the 1990s into early 2000s. Recently, that area has been taken the woodshed…really since the 2015 snowgasm. But trying to parse out CC attribution on SNE snowstorm jackpots over a 6 year period is probably between impossible and harder than impossible.

Highly doubt CC has “created” a 15 mile wide screw zine where you are. That’s so small and nuanced it is extremely unlikely.

Yeah I think there’s a small window to sneak it north on Thursday but it quickly gets erased with the approaching low pressure from the southwest which re-establishes the wedge.

Yeah it could spike on Thursday, but it honestly wouldn’t surprise me to see 30s/40s on a full wedge…was the Euro the only guidance that spiked us? I saw GFS never got us out of the sfc wedge but I haven’t looked super closely at all guidance yet this morning from last night.

Nice band rotating south