ORH_wxman
-
Posts
90,911 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by ORH_wxman
-
Some pretty nice banding starting to move eastward from CT. Hopefully we can pound for several hours coming up here.
-
How much you up to?
-
I haven’t given up on the 13th yet but I’d like to see a stronger trend soon. But there’s been some runs that had it a lot colder. Mean trough position is definitely more friendly by the 15th though…
-
Sucks the thump is crap on the coast. Wonder if it will try and flip to more snow with this stronger omega. But it sounds like good accumulations are going to be tough until CCB and temps come down some.
-
Getting absolutely pasted in this band. Temp was up to 33F but it’s ticked down about it a half degree to 32.5.
-
I think you’re prob gonna do several inches tomorrow afternoon so it really depends on what happens later tonight with the thump. You’re far enough inland that I think you’ll prob get 5-6 from the thump.
-
Quasi-stationary band too. Someone is getting lit up
-
00z guidance so far tonight is going pretty bullish on the CCB tomorrow. I think that may be a factor with crashing temps too in the afternoon. Still some disagreement on temp crashing. Some models really delay it until it’s almost over but others are crashing it in the middle of the CCB which would be a bigger deal.
-
Could be a nice period of moderate to heavy snow over eastern areas looking at this loop. Filling in too south of HVN
-
It def can score some coups. It’s why we follow it more than a model like the ICON or some other bizarre high short term resolution model. It’s just hard to tell when it’s right beforehand.
-
Model war continues. RAP too is somewhat south but not as much as HRRR
-
Def a model war now between the short term mesos and others. RAP and HRRR continue to cool and also look better for the CCB tomorrow in eastern SNE while the other guidance sans 18z GFS has been trending warmer and maybe a little late with the CCB.
-
Some of the soundings in the CCB look almost convective. There’s prob gonna be some TSSN in that if those soundings verify.
-
Still not very hopeful for 1/10 south of about dendrite but maybe it trends just a bit more. 1/13 could still end up a lot better. But that storm could also but rains to Maine. High stakes.
-
And hrrr keeps pounding on the front end. 17z run is big from CT to SE MA even on the front end.
-
Weak sauce on the front end thump but Kraft is looking good
-
Noticed the hrrr keeps cooling now…esp down there.
-
Some of the mesos weren’t bad down there. It’ll be interesting to track the CCB part. That’s where the biggest bust potential is in SE MA.
-
Also we have that decent high to the north…something we couldn’t buy to save our lives last winter…so even though the wind is still off the water for the coast with the somewhat tucked low track, that high is helping to funnel in lower dewpoint air which acts to help keep it cooler just off the deck with evaporational cooling/wetbulbing.
-
It helps to look just off the deck. So often last year we had like 0C to -1C at 925mb. This is significantly colder so that modeled warm layer is very shallow right near the sfc…that’s often a good signal that you’ll accumulate a lot easier at 32-33 than if you’re already dealing with waterlogged melting aggregates.
-
Emergency meeting for an excommunication?
-
Yeah the post count is going to look like a sine wave most likely if ensemble guidance is any indication. Very little during the snowstorm and then a big spike during the cutter (perhaps two if 1/13 cuts) then back down again as pattern really goes colder with potential snow threats. We’ll return for verification in a couple weeks.
-
Anyone should’ve seen this whiff coming from days away based on that 250mb jet streak map. We’re a bunch of idiots.
-
Krafty finish too. That’s a big hit
-
Nice runs overall overnight. 3k NAM went wild for eastern areas too. Seems like the onset has slowed down a bit since yesterday. Much if CT waits until late evening (maybe closer to mid-evening in far sw zones)…except still gotta watch that weird OES type look for northeast MA/SE NH a bit earlier.
