ORH_wxman

GEFS def trended toward EPS today in the long range…but still not fully there. I think that’s going to be crucial if we want a nice period mid-month into MLK week. Otherwise we might just be waiting for MJO to cruise back into phase 7 and beyond late in the month.

Def showed potential for some nice bands regenerating Sunday in eastern areas. I love my old stomping ground in this event…Winter hill in ORH with that elevation and east exposure is gonna clean up with the easterly flow in the BL above the surface. But I think even here should do quite well with easterly flow. Just wish I had a bit more than 350-400 feet of elevation to help. Could be some CF enhancement for a time on Sunday too as that temp gradient tightens before collapsing SE....esp up by Ray

Ray jackpot on euro? Hangs back steady light stuff in eastern areas too well into early evening

Lol I remember when Pete Bouchard defended your measurement on the air in that storm. Was a cool gesture by him…but he explained that the depth was totally consistent with the 6-hourly measurement when you had fluffy dendrites like that.

Also a pretty huge difference between EPS and GEFS. GEFS don’t ever really show a good pattern and reloads the big western Canada PV type pattern at the end of its run. The EPS seems to have a lot more El Niño influence and doesn’t have that. It also retrogrades the NAO block better. But there’s differences in the N PAC too…it has a low out in the GOA underneath the EPO/WPO block (seen below)

Just look at the NAO region. If we don’t retrograde that block like the GGEM shows, then we’re gonna be be a cutter-happy pattern where maybe we squeeze out a SWFE if we get a well-timed high, but largely a much more hostile pattern. The NAO is the key to having a good mid-month pattern. Models have been flip-flopping on that block….I’m not going to be optimistic until there is good agreement it retrogrades. If you can retrograde it well west like that, then it’s a really good pattern. Otherwise we’re probably gonna be much warmer and on the wrong side of a lot of systems.

Yeah gonna be too light over interior.

Can’t wait for him to melt over getting 11” when I put up a 14 spot.

I really don’t need to lose power. But there’s def like a 1 in 3 shot I do. Hopefully we’re able to turn the flow more NNE faster so that we don’t have as much 31-32F paste.

You’re in a great spot for this storm. You might not jackpot but you’re gonna be in one of the higher zones. You also have good wiggle room for any last second trends.

GFS too now. Nice ending.

Both NAM and Reggie brought back the better ending in eastern areas. I’m hoping that trend is real and then some of us over interior E MA could pull double digits.

I’m sure people out there sometimes go “it’s amazing how east coast storms always seem to be modeled well and stay east coast storms and never trend back to us”. They don’t care if it’s a BGM or ORH or NYC jackpot…all the same to them. Just like for us, we don’t care if it’s Detroit, ORD or Milwaukee or Cleveland. All the same sensible wx for us on the east side.

The answer is really just simple math….a cutter 600 miles west of us can shift 200 miles and it’s still a cutter. A big snowstorm cannot.

You’re actually in a decent spot to catch any last second CCB stuff Sunday PM.

Yea it could come back. I wouldn’t favor it but it’s a plausible scenario.

Sunday PM has def trended east with CCB. Looks like the main show is the stuff before that. It still clips eastern areas Sunday afternoon with CCB but it’s not as crazy as yesterdays runs.

Stinks that the euro seems like it nailed 1/10….it also was the one that really wanted 1/7 too over a week out. Maybe it’s getting It’s mojo back. 1/10-1/17 is def cutter risk but maybe we’ll get a SWFE too around mid-month. Pattern does look to improve though later on which would fit with Nino climo anyway.

I think the early part of the storm could be pretty pasty in a lot of areas. Maybe interior high terrain it starts drying out fairly quick but lower elevations might take a while until the CCB gets cranking.

That’s actually pretty impressive for the narcan maps.

That’s an epic finish in SE MA.

Reggie shows us how to link the WAA and CCB stuff. Results in a widespread major storm. That’s kind of the optimal look.

Looks a bit less amped than 12z through 36h, so that's prob how it will play out this run....but NAM is always full of surprises the deeper into clown range you get on that model.

There's a lot of inversion to overcome in this one...even on a Euro solution the lower levels take a long time to scour out over the interior. The Cape and islands and those types of typical places look vulnerable, but it's so hard to get 50+ knots over interior like that December storm.

There;s still a very real chance that 1/10 ends up a good front ender for many....whether that's only reserved for CNE/NNE or also SNE still remains to be seen. Euro being stubborn isn't a good sign for the colder solution right now so I'd favor mostly rain for SNE, but maybe it capitulates in these next few cycles. The reason is that the biggest uncertainty seems to be what is going on up north in Quebec east of James Bay with the height field Around D4.5-D5...and that's where model error tends to be larger vs down in the lower latitudes.