ORH_wxman
-
Posts
90,902 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by ORH_wxman
-
The front running wave is much stronger on the GGEM so it never really allows the trailer to crash the party. It keeps the downstream ridging in front of the trailer to a min. But when the front runner is that potent, you still get a big solution.
-
The vort being very weak and sort of paralleling the coastline rather than moving out to sea is helpful. It doesn’t sweep the baroclinic zone well out to sea. Having the trailing shortwave play a role on almost every run now is good for setting a higher floor on this event. I think a total or near-total skunk job is becoming pretty unlikely. The key is now going to be if we realize the higher potential if we can get those two shortwaves optimal.
-
Front runner is weak sauce but that trailer is still barreling in on its heels. This run will prob still be good, tho maybe not quite as good as 18z.
-
ICON sort of escaped east before capture but an improvement over 18z. Pretty solid low end warning event for most of SNE. Really close to getting eastern areas with several more inches.
-
Yeah it was mostly today when our main shortwave starting coming onshore. It’s a good sign that 00z has only strengthened that type of solution…albeit with the caveat that we’re still on the JV models for a 3.5 day threat. I’ll be more moved by NAM and RGEM solutions in another 36h.
-
If we can get through another 24h of model guidance trending toward that type of interaction, then it’s time to start honking big. Still guarded at the moment because we’re in that awkward zone where things can rapidly still change but that window is closing quickly over the next couple cycles.
-
Yeah at 84h you basically have a bent back WF in the midlevels quasi-stalled near the south coast….inject that with the trailing vort and start rapidly deepening the ML center and ohhh boy….that’s how major positive busts are born. Check out 00z reggie too…kind of similar though not quite as perfect with the trailing vort.
-
NAM was prob gonna go apeshit the next frame with that potent vort trying to crash the party. That gonna be a feature to watch…if there’s going to be a decent swath of double digits, that trailer vort is likely the key. We’ve seen several model runs do it already. But as Tip and others mentioned, it’s still delicate…if the trailer vort doesn’t quite get it done or the timing is slightly off then it won’t work and you’re left with a good, but not major event.
-
1/29/22 if I’m nitpicking…tho technically it did start right before midnight.
-
Reggie at 84 looks like a big hit....keeps that front runner s/w intact long enough. Kind of gives an idea of how long we've been tracking this one given that we're only getting into clown range for NAM/RGEM. Still plenty of time for changes.
-
We were lucky if the 0C 925 line was SE of ORH, lol. So many events were so marginal and a lot of it was because we had zero high pressures in a decent spot.....the 1/7 event finally has a decent high that is able to funnel down good air into any CCB.
-
NAM still looks like it would mostly be the trailing shortwave. It did take a bit longer this run to grind up the lead shortwave so maybe it will eventually trend toward other guidance.
-
PRetty clustered tightly still
-
MEan has double digits now from ORH to BOS and maybe down to Foxborough.
-
Yeah that really closed a lot of the spread on previous EPS runs....tightened up all those lows.
-
Def a big risk in the 1/10-1/17 period....with that vortex trying to press into western Canada, there's a cutter risk. Hopefully we avoid them and they are mostly SWFE type systems or even overrunners if we can get that block to work for us enough. But that's definitely a risky period.
-
There's an initial big fronto band across SNE early Sunday from like predawn to early morning and then it starts to rotate and regenerate further NW as the day goes along.
-
You're in a good spot for 1/10. Want to be northeast for that one. Seems like you'll at leats get decent snows in 1/7 too even if Euro was a little too happy at 12z.
-
Even this run gets warning crtieria snow to N ORH county over to N Berks....prob advisory type stuff close to the pike (and N/W of 495)....needs more work to look like the GFS/GGEM, but that was a nice improvement from 00z.
-
Euro is starting to cave to GFS/GGEM....still think this run won't be as good as those runs, but it won't be as torchy as 00z.
-
Yeah we nearly lost the lead wave on this run, but it was running NW of the previous runs, so it kept all the forcing near the coast and inland instead of getting swept seaward.
-
Does the quasi-capture scenario that is ideal for still getting heavy burst of snow and then prolonging the stuff on Sunday
-
Euro looks a bit more amped than 06z through 60 hours.
-
You can ignore the Ukie clown map close to the coast...it has a bad warm bias near the sfc, so it often shows rain like 10-15 miles inland despite 925 temps of like -3C.
-
PV over western Canada....NAO saving our bacon like one of those late '60s winters.
